Tsinghua Daily Review of Energy and Chemical Futures and Coking Coal and Steel Minerals

Crude oil: U.S. gasoline demand increases, oil prices remain volatile;
The price of domestic crude oil futures continued to fluctuate and rose on Thursday. The main contract SC2207 closed at 770.1 yuan/barrel, up 17 yuan/barrel, or 2.26%, and the position increased by 1032 lots. Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for crude oil for supplies from Asia and Europe. Among them, the July light crude oil supplied to Asia is 6.50 US dollars higher than the average price of Dubai crude oil spot and Oman crude oil futures per barrel, which is 2.10 US dollars higher than the price difference in June. Dollar. If the official selling price is raised, it is often a signal of a tight market, causing oil prices to follow suit. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a historic low, coupled with increased gasoline demand, U.S. gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell, and international oil prices rose sharply to the highest level in 13 weeks. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of the week of June 3, the total U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, were 936.081 million barrels, down 5.24 million barrels from the previous week, and the total U.S. gasoline inventories were 218.184 million barrels, down from the previous week. Down 812,000 barrels. Technically, the oil price SC2207 remained volatile and rose. Operation suggestion: hold more than one.

Rubber: The low rubber inventory supports the rubber price or maintains a volatile rebound;
Hujiao fluctuated slightly on Thursday. Hujiao is running strongly today, and the spot price of natural rubber in the Shanghai market has increased by 250-300 yuan/ton as a whole. At present, downstream factories just need to purchase mainly. The mainstream reference price is as follows: 20-year whole milk price is 13250-13300 yuan/ ton, the price of 3L/mixed rubber in Vietnam is around 13100-13350 yuan/ton, and the actual order is negotiated. At present, the low total inventory level of rubber provides strong support for prices. In April, Thailand’s natural rubber exports fell by more than 10% month-on-month. Under the characteristics of seasonal supply, the release of raw materials in Thailand’s production areas is limited. Secondly, problems such as poor shipping logistics and tight containers have affected the overall export still have an impact. After the holiday, the start-up load of downstream tire companies may be expected to gradually pick up. Technically, the price of rubber may remain volatile and rebound. Operation suggestion: hold more than one.

Methanol: the accumulation of coastal inventories, methanol fluctuated downward;
On Thursday, the main methanol contract 2209 fell 1% from the previous trading day, reducing positions by 9,000 lots and holding positions of 1.04 million lots. In terms of spot, Taicang methanol market offers 2820-2860 yuan / ton (-20/-10). The methanol market in Inner Mongolia is organized and operated. The northern area is negotiated at 2,370 yuan/ton, and the southern area is negotiated at 2,320 yuan/ton. This week, the inventory of coastal ports has accumulated, and the density of imported cargoes arriving at the port is relatively high, and the coastal areas are concentrated for unloading. However, the speed of picking up goods in some public warehouses in Jiangsu is average, and the overall accumulation of warehouses in East China is obvious. Operation suggestion: Shock thinking operation.

Asphalt: Asphalt stable cost support;
On Thursday, the international crude oil fluctuated at a high level, supporting the cost of asphalt, and the asphalt price fluctuated at a high level. This week, the national operating rate of asphalt refineries fell again, and the operating rate was only 26%. In terms of inventory, affected by the insufficient operating rate, the domestic asphalt inventory rate has continued to decline since May. This week, the national asphalt refinery inventory rate was only about 36%. In terms of imports, affected by the cost side, the price of imported asphalt rose steadily and the US dollar continued to strengthen, resulting in a high RMB duty-paid price of imported asphalt. The recent heavy rainfall in the southern region has affected the demand in some areas, but the supply pressure has pushed up the price of asphalt.

PTA: The disk surface fluctuates at a high level;
TA2209 closed up 0.16% on Thursday. Next week and at the end of June, traders will refer to the futures 2209 premium for 200 yuan/ton self-lifting, and refer to the negotiation 7715-7810 yuan/ton self-lifting, and the trading atmosphere is general. The low processing fee restricts the increase of PTA, the downstream polyester construction is stable, and the export support PTA is still expected to be destocked. However, the current focus is on the cost side, the price of crude oil has risen at a high level, and PX remains strong under structural contradictions, and the effect of cost push-up is still there. PTA is mainly cost-oriented in the short term, so it is necessary to guard against the risk of callback after the sharp rise, and pay attention to the price trend of raw materials. It is recommended to lighten up more than a single rallies.

Fuel oil: fuel oil continued to fall, and the trend of high and low sulfur was differentiated;
On Thursday, the international crude oil was at a high level, the fuel cost was stable, and the price of fuel oil fell significantly. The main contract 2209 closed at 3881 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton, or 3.46%. The decompression operating rate rose slightly this week, mainly due to the impact of stable cost-side support and insufficient market supply. Some refineries are still shutting down for maintenance, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply and resource shortages in some areas, but the current demand is generally flat. Domestic and domestic trade fuel oil profits are relatively stable, and the high cost of raw materials has led to a significant increase in marine oil prices, resulting in high refinery costs. Internationally, although the EU's sanctions on Russian crude oil have pushed up international crude oil prices, the maritime embargo has led to a decrease in the overall demand for fuel. Recently, fuel oil has fluctuated greatly, and crude oil prices have been stable.

Polyolefin: the disk surface opens and falls;
Plastics 2209 closed up 0.21% on Thursday. The spot price is rising steadily, but the downstream goods are more cautious, and the real offer focuses on negotiation. The linear price in North China is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, the price in East China is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, and the price in South China is 9150-9300 yuan/ton.
PP2209 closed up 0.23% on Thursday. The spot price has been raised in a narrow range, the downstream is cautious, and the transaction of high-priced sources is flat.
The market expects the resumption of work to improve, the oil price is strong to support the cost, and the short-term market is relatively strong and volatile, but the new orders from the downstream are limited, the factory's willingness to receive goods is cautious, and the high-priced raw materials need to be digested. Pay attention to the improvement of the actual supply and demand. A cautious approach is recommended.

Coke and coking coal: slightly adjusted the surface water rise;
Zhou Si, coke 2209 opened at a high level, and the shock was weak. With the start of terminal demand, market sentiment has improved. Recently, the start-up level of coke enterprises has rebounded, and the supply has increased month-on-month. In terms of steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the production of molten iron continued to rebound, supporting the rigid demand for charge. Steel mills purchased raw materials on demand, and the athlete's foot accelerated to depot, port traders were more motivated to purchase, port inventory rose slightly, and the overall inventory shifted downward. Some coke companies tentatively proposed the first round of 100 yuan / ton increase, but steel mills have not responded yet. Futures prices reacted to the rise in advance, premium to spot, slightly adjusted, short-term operation is recommended.
On Thursday, the coking coal opened at a high level of 2209, and the shock was weak. On the supply side, due to underground factors, some coal mines in Shanxi started to decline, while coal washing plants started to improve, and the overall clean coal output remained stable. In terms of imports, the resource prices of ports in Canada and the United States were upside down, and the positive drivers at Ganqimaodu port in the early stage affected the customs clearance efficiency slightly, but the overall impact was not large. The recovery of coke enterprises has driven the market sentiment to improve, and the futures disk fluctuated at a high level.

Iron Ore: Optimistic expectations, weak reality;
Iron ore continued to fluctuate on Thursday. In terms of sentiment, the market has strong expectations for the demand brought about by the resumption of work and production, and some speculative demand on the real side has started, but the terminal demand is still weak. On the industrial side, data from the Steel Federation shows that under optimistic expectations, the output of steel mills continued to recover, the motivation to reduce production was insufficient, and the fundamentals of iron ore were good. In terms of inventory, as demand improves, iron ore inventories may be tight in the future. The terminal demand weakened again after the staged release of speculative demand, but it is likely to gradually improve in the later period, and iron ore will remain strong. Looking at the trend, iron ore has high pressure and shocks, and there may be a certain decline in the short term. Operation on dips to do more based.



Rebar: supply and demand data weakens, and snails will wait and see;
The price of snail futures fluctuated slightly on Thursday. The data of Shanghai Steel Federation was released today. Steel production continued to increase, inventories increased, and apparent consumption fell; in terms of rebar, the output was 3.06 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 11.84 million tons, an increase of 161,000 tons from the previous month. The apparent demand 2.89 million tons, down 330,000 tons. Iron ore imports rebounded in May, with imports of 93 million tons in a single month, and the contradiction between supply and demand of iron ore has eased. The supply contradiction of the black industry chain has eased, and the market's current trend is less certain. Investors are advised to wait and see.

Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys rose sharply, ferrosilicon was significantly overvalued;
Manganese Silicon: Manganese silicon futures rose on Thursday. At present, manganese silicon has a strong cost support, and Guangxi has lowered the incremental electricity price, but the profits in the north and south are negative. In May, the manganese department of the Ferroalloy Association called for a reduction in production, and the production of manganese and silicon began to decrease significantly. According to the Mysteel survey and statistics, in May, there were 121 production enterprises in the silicon-manganese production area, with an output of 883,300 tons, a decrease of 2.52% from April. Average daily output in May: 28,494 tons, down 5.66% from April. In terms of demand, the output of pig iron and thread continued to rise. The market went from surplus to shortage. It is recommended to look at manganese silicon more.
Ferrosilicon: The price of ferrosilicon futures rose and fell on Thursday. Today's landmark steel mill's ferrosilicon inquiry price is 9300 yuan / ton, and the reasonable spot price of ferrosilicon should be around 9000. At present, the high price of the disk is conducive to enterprises' short hedging. The spot production profit of ferrosilicon is still relatively good, and the market production willingness is strong. Mysteel: In May 2022, there were about 136 enterprises in the main ferrosilicon producing areas across the country. The national ferrosilicon production in May was 549,400 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with April and an increase of 16,300 tons compared with the same period last year. Domestic supply and demand of ferrosilicon tend to be in excess, and overseas demand has also declined. The ferrosilicon futures are overvalued, the warehouse receipts are not low, and the fundamentals are unprofitable. It is recommended to short hedge against futures premiums, which is also conducive to speculative shorting.

Source: Guosen Futures