On June 8, institutions summarized their views on the stock market, commodities, foreign exchange, economic prospects, and central bank policy prospects:

1. The Fed's forecast model shows that the US economy may be on the verge of recession;
The latest data from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows that the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP in the second quarter may only be 0.9%, down from 1.3% on June 1. GDPNow tracks economic data in real time and uses it to predict where the economy is headed. The forecast model trimmed personal consumption expenditure growth to 3.7% from 4.4% previously, and real total private domestic investment to an 8.5% decline from an earlier decline of 8.3%. Talk of a U.S. recession has heated up quickly this year as soaring inflation dampens the outlook for corporate profits. Many on Wall Street still expect resilient consumers and a still-robust job market to pull the U.S. out of recession

2. Gregor Gregersen, founder of Silver Bullion Pte.: After decades of massive deficit spending and ultra-easy monetary policy, we are heading for a period of stagflation. In this environment, safe-haven assets like physical gold and silver are the best things you can own. Gold and silver are expected to rise to around $2,000 an ounce and $26 an ounce, respectively, by the end of the year, and beyond these levels in the event of an unexpected "black swan" event

3. Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments: The market is pricing in an expectation that the Fed will deliver on almost everything it promises, but having said that, people are starting to realize that inflation may have peaked and may start to fall back. Retailers are facing overstocking and will see some price drops, so U.S. yields have stalled, at least at current levels

4. Barclays Bank: It is expected that the US CPI will increase by 8.4% year-on-year in May, and inflation may start to decline after June;
Higher energy and food prices are likely to push up U.S. inflation in May, while core inflation pressures should ease slightly, Barclays U.S. economist Pooja Sriram said in a note. Barclays expects the U.S. CPI to increase by 8.4% year-on-year in May, slightly higher than the 8.3% in April. Annual inflation is likely to start falling after June, falling to around 6% in December, due to base effects, Sriram said. Nonetheless, given the uncertainty arising from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the resulting risk of further delays in the resolution of supply bottlenecks, we acknowledge that overall, inflation risks appear to be rising in 2022

5. Rabobank: The United States is likely to fall into a recession in 2023;
The U.S. appears unavoidable into a recession, triggered either by exogenous supply shocks that reduce business activity or by the Federal Reserve’s response to persistently high inflation. The exact timing may depend on whether the triggering factor is exogenous or endogenous. Given the current strength of the labor market, consumption and investment markets, we believe the U.S. is more likely to fall into an endogenous recession in 2023

6. Mitsubishi UFJ: A UK prime minister without support will make it harder to weather Britain's poor economic outlook;
Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a confidence vote on Monday by 211 votes to 148, but it was an empty victory, adding to the case for a weaker pound. If the prime minister lacks support, Britain's poor economic outlook will make it harder to weather the storm, analyst Derek Halpenny said in a note. He said difficult policies, such as changing the Northern Ireland Protocol framework, meant further divisions (within the Conservative Party) ahead. The bank's forecast for GBP/USD to underperform in the third quarter is weaker than current spot levels, and last night's vote was in line with its bearish view on GBP

7. Commerzbank: Spot gold is still under the dual pressure of a strong dollar and higher U.S. bond yields. The U.S. 10-year treasury bond yield has once again stood at 3%, raising the real yield and making gold less attractive as a non-interest-bearing asset. The latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data show that labor demand remains high, and the risk of wage price spirals still exists. Our bank believes that the Fed may further raise interest rates. Spot gold 1849.46-0.14%

8. Citi intends to recruit 3,000 new employees for its Asian institutional business;
Citigroup plans to hire about 3,000 new employees for its Asian institutional business over the next few years, strengthening its focus in the fast-growing region where Citigroup has exited, Peter Babej, chief executive of Citigroup Asia Pacific, said on Tuesday. consumer banking business. The previously unannounced employee expansion plan underscores Citi's ambitions to turn its institutional banking and wealth management business into a growth engine that it hopes will boost revenue in the Asia-Pacific region. Asia Pacific has become a battleground for global banks looking to profit from Citi's sprawling economy and growing wealth

9. Goldman Sachs said that oil prices need to rise further to solve the supply gap;
Goldman Sachs said oil prices are likely to continue to rise as global crude inventories need to be replenished as demand rebounds and Russia cuts production. Analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report dated June 6 that Brent had to average $135 a barrel in the 12 months starting in July -- more than the bank's The previous forecast was $10 higher to allow global inventories to return to normal in late 2023. Oil prices rose as demand rebounded and Russia cut production, as countries tapped strategic reserves to ease consumer pain. However, Goldman Sachs said that commodities are continuing to rise and that rebalancing the market will require further disruptions in demand, slowing global growth and increased production by OPEC members including Saudi Arabia and Iran

10. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Gareth Aird: The RBA is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in July;
The RBA is expected to continue raising rates sharply in July, followed by 25 basis points each in August, September and November. This would bring the official cash rate to 2.10% by the end of 2022 (a significantly tightening level in our view). The risk now facing the RBA is that if it continues to hike rates by 50 basis points in August, the official cash rate could hit 2.35 per cent by the end of the year, exceeding the target level. And we expect that it will take some time for the RBA to raise interest rates to put downward pressure on inflation, as there is a certain time lag between monetary policy adjustments and changes in consumer prices

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