[Market Morning] The CPI Makes the World Staged "Black Thursday". Gold Once Fell by Nearly 40 US Dollars From the Daily High. After Several Fed Officials Suppress the 100 Basis Point Interest Rate Hike, the Market Staged a Rebound

On Thursday, spot gold fell sharply, falling below the $1,700 mark during the session, fell nearly $40 from the daily high, and finally closed down 1.49% at $1,709.64 per ounce; spot silver accelerated in the U.S. session, falling below 19 The U.S. dollar ended down 4.1 percent at $18.42 an ounce.

Comment: Gold prices tumbled more than 2% on Thursday, hitting the lowest level in nearly a year, the dollar continued the trend of a sharp rebound, and the market's expectations for a sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased. The U.S. dollar hit a 20-year high, becoming the safe-haven asset of choice amid mounting economic risks in the near term, while gold took a beating.

Suggestion: short spot gold at 1711.30, target point at 1700.00.

The U.S. dollar index continued to maintain its upward trend, climbing to a high of 109.31 during the session, and then giving back some of the gains, and finally closed up 0.565% at 108.66; the 10-year U.S. bond yield repeatedly challenged 3% and failed, and finally closed at 2.958%.

Comment: The dollar pared gains on Thursday after two Fed officials said they favored a 75 basis point rate hike at their July meeting, reducing the likelihood of a more aggressive move.

Suggestion: short EUR/USD at 1.00230, target point 0.09500.

In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils showed a V-shaped trend. WTI crude oil once fell to a low of $90.54, then recovered all lost ground and turned up, and finally closed up 0.09% at $96.46 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed flat at $96.46 per barrel. $99.67/barrel.

Comment: Oil prices closed lower on Thursday but recovered nearly all of their losses after falling more than $4 earlier in the session, with investors eyeing the prospect of a sharp U.S. rate hike later this month, which could curb inflation but also hit oil demand.

Suggestion: go short at 93.550 of U.S. crude oil, target point at 90.000.

In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks regained lost ground for two consecutive days as several officials, including the Fed's most hawkish coupon committee this year, Bullard, cooled the market's expectations for a 100BP rate hike. The Dow closed down 0.46%, the Nasdaq closed close to flat, the S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, and the three major stock indexes all fell more than 2% during the session. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon closed down 2 percent, while Alibaba fell nearly 5 percent.

Comment: The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Thursday after investors digested disappointing quarterly results from two of the largest U.S. banks and hotter-than-expected inflation data. In early trading, the three major U.S. stock indexes all sold off sharply after the second-quarter earnings reports of JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. Both banks reported slumping profits and warned of an impending economic slowdown.

Suggestion: go short at 11817.900 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 11480.250

Several Fed officials: Still support a 75 basis point rate hike in July

On the 2024 FOMC vote committee, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that a 100 basis point rate hike is one of the possibilities, and his most likely position is to support a 75 basis point rate hike. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also believes that the basic expectation in July is to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and the market's expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike may be a bit ahead, depending on the retail sales (released tonight) and housing data. Even the Fed's "Eagle King" Bullard believes that 100 basis points of interest rate hikes are not currently supported, and a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the next meeting can raise interest rates to a neutral level.

Fed's Collins: Addressing high inflation is a priority

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Fed Inspector General: Powell, former Fed Vice Chairman Clarida's (financial) transactions did not violate rules

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