Black Swan Incidents

Black swan incidents (English: Black swan incidents) refer to small-probability events that are difficult to predict, but when they occur suddenly, they will cause a chain reaction and bring huge negative impacts. It exists in various fields such as nature, economy, and politics. Although it is an accidental event, if it is not handled well, it will lead to systemic risks and serious consequences.

The name of the black swan event comes from a metaphor. Before Europeans discovered Australia in the 18th century, because the swans they had seen were all white, in the eyes of Europeans at that time, there were only white varieties of swans. It was not until Europeans discovered Australia and saw the local black swans that people's horizons for understanding swans were opened. Only one observation of a black swan can invalidate the general conclusions inferred from countless observations of white swans. It has caused people to reflect on their cognition - what was considered right in the past does not mean it will always be right in the future.

Characteristics of black swan events

According to the theory proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", black swan events mainly have the following three characteristics: Big features:

This event is an outlier because it occurs outside the normal range of expectations and past experience has led to disbelief in its possibility.

It will have a huge impact. Black swan events usually have far-reaching and lasting impacts on society, economy, politics, etc., and even change the course of history.

Even though an event is an outlier, once it occurs, humans are naturally bound to come up with some explanation that makes the event explainable or predictable. This phenomenon, also known as the narrative fallacy, is the tendency of people to construct a story around facts to achieve a purpose, but when someone begins to believe that the story can be true, they may Made a mistake.

Examples of black swan events

There are many examples of black swan events in history, such as:

"9·11" incident: On the morning of September 11, 2001, just as Americans were preparing to start their day's work, terrorists hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. More than 3,000 people lost their lives in this black swan event. The U.S. economy was paralyzed for a time, and the huge economic losses cannot be calculated in numbers. This incident also triggered the US war in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the global wave of counter-terrorism.

Snow disaster in China: During the Spring Festival in 2008, China experienced continuous large-scale rain and snow weather from west to east, affecting 14 provinces and regions including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Jiangxi. This "black swan" in winter caused crop damage to an area of 42.198 million hectares; 107,000 houses collapsed and 399,000 houses were damaged; direct economic losses due to the disaster were 22.09 billion yuan. This snowstorm also caused serious chaos during the Spring Festival. Tens of millions of people were stranded at stations and airports, unable to go home for the New Year.

Titanic: The largest luxury liner in the world at the time, it was called the "unsinkable dream liner." No one expected it to sink. It sailed from Southampton, England to New York on April 10, 1912, but sank after hitting an iceberg in the North Atlantic on the fourth night of its maiden voyage. This black swan incident caused the death of more than 1,500 people and also attracted attention to ship safety regulations and radio communications.

How to deal with black swan events?

Due to the unpredictability and huge impact of black swan events, it is difficult for us to completely avoid or guard against them. However, we can mitigate the risks and losses they bring through the following aspects:

Improve alertness and sensitivity: We should always pay attention to and observe the surrounding environment and changes, and not be limited by our own assumptions and judgments. We should also learn to analyze problems from multiple angles and perspectives, and not ignore information and signals that may seem trivial or unreasonable.

Build diversified and resilient systems: We should avoid investing all resources and energy into one area or program, but spread risks and create more choices and possibilities.

How to deal with black swan events?

In the face of black swan events, we cannot take it lightly, nor should we be pessimistic and disappointed. Instead, we must adopt a positive attitude and effective measures to reduce the negative impact as much as possible, and even discover opportunities and value from it. Here are some possible approaches:

Improve alertness and sensitivity: We should always pay attention to and observe the surrounding environment and changes, and not be limited by our own assumptions and judgments. We should also learn to analyze problems from multiple angles and perspectives, and not ignore information and signals that may seem trivial or unreasonable.

Build diversified and resilient systems: We should avoid investing all resources and energy into one area or program, but spread risks and create more choices and possibilities. We should also make our systems resilient and adaptable enough to quickly adjust and recover when black swan events occur.

Enhance learning and innovation capabilities: We should constantly learn new knowledge and skills to improve our competitiveness and ability to withstand stress. We should also cultivate innovative thinking and action capabilities, dare to try new methods and models, and seek breakthroughs and changes.

Establish effective communication and cooperation: We should maintain good communication and cooperation with others, share information and experience, learn and support each other. We should also use social capital and network resources to expand our influence and connections and increase our social support.

Develop reasonable contingency plans and contingency plans: We should analyze possible black swan events and their consequences based on our field and situation, formulate corresponding contingency plans and contingency plans, and update and drill them regularly. We should also maintain sufficient redundancy to cope with the impact of emergencies.

Conclusion

A black swan event is a small-probability event that is difficult to predict but will have a huge impact. It exists in various fields and has its inevitability and regularity. In the face of black swan events, we cannot wait passively or escape reality. Instead, we must take proactive measures to improve our response and resistance capabilities, turn crises into opportunities, and turn challenges into motivation.