[Market Morning] Fake CPI Frightened the Market, US Stocks Plunged in Late Trading, and US Oil Plunged More Than 7%!

On Tuesday, spot gold failed to challenge the $1,740 mark several times within days, and finally closed down 0.43% at $1,726.26 per ounce; spot silver closed down 0.8% at $18.93 per ounce.

Comment: Gold prices hit a nine-month low on Tuesday, weighed down by a strong dollar and bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, while investors braced for a series of U.S. economic data that could determine the pace of monetary policy tightening. (Investors) buying heavily of dollars and expectations of higher interest rates at a time when inflation is more persistent are weighing on gold.

Suggestion: short Spot gold at 1724.50, and the target point is 1715.00.

The US dollar index fell after reaching a high of 108.57, fell below the 108 mark during the session, and finally closed down 0.065% at 108.17 points; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recovered most of the decline during the U.S. session, closing at 2.971%. In addition, the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted the most in 15 years.

Comment: The euro rebounded against the dollar on Tuesday after sliding to a 20-year low and near parity as investors worried that the region's energy crisis would trigger a recession. The euro fell to $1.00005, its weakest since December 2002, after data showed German investor confidence plunged in July from levels at the start of the coronavirus pandemic amid energy concerns, supply bottlenecks and a rate hike by the European Central Bank.

Suggestion: short the EUR/USD at 1.00320, the target point is 0.99770.

In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils plunged in the U.S. session and fell below the $100 mark one after another, as worries about the epidemic intensified concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. WTI crude oil fell nearly $8 from the intraday high, and finally closed down 7.61% at $95.57 per barrel; Brent crude closed down 6.69% at $99.13 per barrel.

Comment: Brent crude fell $7 on Tuesday, closing below $100 a barrel for the first time in three months, weighed down by a stronger dollar, global coronavirus lockdowns curbing demand and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. The oil market had been volatile in the previous month, with investors already selling oil positions on fears that aggressive interest rate hikes to stem inflation would lead to a downturn in the economy and thus lower demand for oil.

Suggestion: short US crude oil at 92.450, the target point is 89.000.

The three major U.S. stock indexes accelerated their decline in late trading. The Dow closed down 0.62%, the Nasdaq fell 0.95%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.92%. Popular Chinese concept stocks were relatively resistant, mainly closing up/down slightly. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.2%, and Twitter rebounded and closed up more than

Comment: US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as growing signs of a recession kept buyers out of the market ahead of inflation data. Earlier in the session, the three major stock indexes fluctuated slightly around flat, but fell sharply later in the session, ahead of the Labor Department's consumer price report on Wednesday and the big banks reporting earnings later this week.

Suggestion: go short at 11762.500 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 11539.000

Fed's Barkin: Open to 50 or 75 bps hike in July

In the 2024 FOMC voting committee, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the CPI data in June is expected to rise, and he will retain his judgment on whether to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points before the July meeting. He thinks it is too early to tell whether the rate hike in July will be 50 basis points or 75 basis points. The key to avoiding a recession is how much inflation needs to be controlled through demand rather than improved supply and lower commodity prices.

IMF cuts US GDP forecast for this year and next as inflation risks rise

The IMF expects the U.S. GDP to grow by 2.3% and 1.0% this year and next, compared with 2.9% and 1.7% previously; the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.7% this year, compared with 3.2% previously, and the unemployment rate is expected to exceed 2024 and 2025. 5%. The IMF warned that a broad inflation surge would pose "systemic risks" to the U.S. and global economy.

Fake inflation report sends US stocks to session lows, Labor Department refutes rumors

Stocks fell to session lows when the U.S. Labor Department said on Tuesday that a report of June inflation data circulating online was false. The report, circulating online, mimicked the format of last month's CPI report, with revised dates and figures. Some of it turned out to be fake, including a chart where the numbers didn't match the text.