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Market News USD/CAD falls towards 1.3850 on potential US recession and persistent inflation

USD/CAD falls towards 1.3850 on potential US recession and persistent inflation

USD/CAD fell as investor concerns weighed on the U.S. dollar, leading to outflows from U.S. assets. The dollar faced further challenges as U.S.-China trade tensions escalated.

2025-04-14

10933

USD/CAD

USD/CAD fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, hovering around 1.3860 during Monday's Asian trading session. The decline was due to a weaker U.S. dollar (USD), which was pressured by investor concerns about a potential recession and persistent inflation, prompting capital outflows from U.S. assets.

The dollar also faced additional headwinds from rising U.S.-China trade tensions, which have reignited concerns about a global economic slowdown. Last Friday, China's Ministry of Finance announced a significant increase in tariffs on US goods, raising tariffs from 84% to 125%. The move follows President Trump's earlier decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%.

Economic data released over the weekend further exacerbated the cautious mood. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and core inflation fell to 3.3%. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 223,000, even as continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, pointing to a mixed picture in the labor market.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari commented on the impact of the trade dispute on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday: "This is the biggest blow to confidence that I can remember in my 10 years at the Fed - other than when COVID first hit in March of 2020." Kashkari stressed that the economic consequences depend largely on how quickly trade tensions are resolved.

Although the 90-day ceasefire announced by President Trump offered a glimmer of hope for renegotiation, widespread concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy prompted capital flows to Canada, bolstering the strength of the Canadian dollar (CAD).

However, given that Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States, the commodity-linked Canadian dollar may face some resistance as crude prices remain subdued. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading around $60.70 a barrel on concerns that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions could hamper global growth and reduce fuel demand.