Watching the foreign exchange market on September 15: technical analysis of the euro, the pound sterling and the Australian dollar

Currency: EUR/USD



Resistance 2: 1.1910
Resistance 1: 1.1850
Spot price: 1.1807
Support 1: 1.1750
Support 2: 1.1670

On Tuesday, the United States announced that the core consumer price index (CPI) rose slightly by 0.1% in August, which was lower than the 0.3% expected and also lower than the 0.3% increase in July, the lowest increase in six months. The data weakened the Fed's cut in monetary stimulus. The measures are expected to curb the US dollar and benefit the euro; however, the ECB executive committee said that inflation in the euro area is "very likely" to ease next year. It is expected that inflation in the euro area will not remain high, which will prompt the euro to fall. On the same day, the euro rose first and then declined, closing slightly lower, opening at 1.1810 and closing at 1.1802.

The current focus of the market is on the change in the Fed's monetary policy. It is generally expected that the Fed may reduce the scale of bond purchases during the year. In addition, the European Central Bank has not been as strong as the Fed in tightening its monetary policy. Therefore, in this context, the US dollar index should be mainly strong in the direction, the euro generally weakened, and the trend of the euro tends to fluctuate downward in the market outlook.

Currency: GBP/USD



Resistance 2: 1.3980
Resistance 1: 1.3905
Spot price: 1.3801
Support 1: 1.3740
Support 2: 1.3610

On Tuesday, the United Kingdom announced that the number of employees in August had increased by a record 241,000, making the total number of employees higher than the level before the UK entered the anti-epidemic lockdown for the first time last year. At the same time, another official data showed that unemployment was unemployed in the three months ending in July. The rate was 4.6%, a slight decrease from the previous month and in line with expectations. The bright employment data boosted the upward movement of the pound, but the pound fell following the euro in the late trading session. The pound trended to rise and fall, and closed down, opening at 1.3832 and closing at 1.3806.

Against the backdrop of the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the trend of the pound is hardly optimistic, but the Bank of England’s monetary policy is more hawkish than the European Central Bank. Therefore, the overall trend of the pound is stronger than that of the euro, and the outlook for the pound is stronger than that of the euro. toughness. In the short term, on Tuesday, the pound rushed higher and lowered, and the downward momentum was greater. It is expected that the short-term inertial downward movement is more likely to continue.

Currency: AUD/USD



Resistance 2: 0.7475
Resistance 1: 0.7418
Spot price: 0.7322
Support 1: 0.7220
Support 2: 0.7100

The Governor of the Bank of Australia said on Tuesday that although the epidemic blockade will cause the economy to shrink sharply this quarter, he believes that once the restrictions in the December quarter are relaxed, economic activity will rebound quickly. He also reiterated that given the continued sluggish salary growth, interest rates are expected to remain low until 2024. The remarks put pressure on the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar fell on the same day, opening at 0.7366 and closing at 0.7318.

On the one hand, compared with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Australia’s monetary policy is still biased towards looseness. On the other hand, the recent decline in commodities has also suppressed the trend of the Australian dollar.

Guo Yufeng, Bank of China Guangdong Branch

Source: Bank of China official website

Original Title: Forex Watching Trend September 15, 2021