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Market News Watching the foreign exchange market on November 12: technical analysis of the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar
Watching the foreign exchange market on November 12: technical analysis of the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar
After the United States announced strong CPI data on Wednesday, the market speculated that the out-of-control inflation in the United States might prompt the Fed to tighten policy, driving the U.S. dollar to rise, and the euro plummeting; on November 11, the pound against the U.S. dollar once refreshed its lowest level since 2021 at 1.3358; on Thursday, The Australian dollar continued to fall against the US dollar, but the magnitude has decreased, and has eased after hitting a recent low of 0.7286.
2021-11-12
9120
Currency: EUR/USD
Resistance 2: 1.1610
Resistance 1: 1.1520
Spot price: 1.1445
Support 1:1.1400
Support 2: 1.1300
After the United States announced strong CPI data on Wednesday, the market speculated that the out-of-control inflation in the United States might prompt the Fed to tighten policy, driving the dollar to rise, and the euro to plummet. The euro continued to fall against the US dollar on Thursday, falling below the key support area of 1.1495-93-the March 2020 high and the 50% retracement of the 2020-2021 bull trend, reaching the lowest intraday level of 1.1439. The decline of the euro against the dollar seems to continue, as the currency pair has broken the lower limit of the recent consolidation range. The next potential support is at the monthly 1.1450 and 1.1380. If all of the above water levels fall below, the target of the attack below will be the price range of 1.10-1.12. The top is currently still a strong resistance at 1.17.
Currency: GBP/USD
Resistance 2: 1.3486
Resistance 1: 1.3433
Spot price: 1.3371
Support 1: 1.3313
Support 2: 1.3225
On November 11, the British pound against the U.S. dollar once refreshed the lowest level since 2021 at 1.3358. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom showed that the British economy grew by 0.6% in September, but the valuation in the previous few months was revised lower, making the gross domestic product (GDP) less than that shortly before the British entered the first new crown lockdown. In February 2020, it shrank by 0.6%. The British economy grew by 1.3% between July and September. This marked a sharp deceleration from the 5.5% growth reported in the previous quarter, which was worse than the expected 1.5%. At the November policy meeting, the Bank of England kept its target interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. It had previously hinted that it might raise interest rates, which disappointed the market. The market now expects a high possibility of a rate hike in December, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, the British manufacturing and industrial production data are also lower than consensus estimates. People are also worried that the British government will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Agreement. The combination of these factors has an adverse effect on the pound. At the same time, the sudden drop in intraday exchange rates may be attributed to some technical selling below the 1.3400 integer, and intraday technical oversold helped the pound to rebound quickly from the daily lows of volatility. Even so, the risk is still biased towards the downside, and any rise may be seen as an opportunity to sell. The upper resistance levels focus on 1.3433, 1.3486, and 1.3557, and the lower support levels focus on 1.3364, 1.3312, and 1.3225.
Currency: AUD/USD
Resistance level 2: 0.7400
Resistance 1: 0.7325
Spot price: 0.7292
Support 1: 0.7265
Support 2: 0.7220
On Thursday, the Australian dollar continued to fall against the US dollar, but the magnitude was reduced, and it eased after hitting a recent low of 0.7286. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish views on cash interest rates still have an impact, even if the market is still pricing the central bank to raise interest rates significantly in the second half of 2022. The prices of commodities supported by the Australian dollar are still under shock pressure, because the decline in China's steel production may continue until the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. The volatility in the stock market has increased the prospect of further declines in the Australian dollar against the US dollar in the coming days. However, Australia is expected to be one of the countries with the highest vaccination rates in the world, which may help the Australian dollar to build momentum in 2022. The current account surplus also supports the Australian dollar. Technically, the 4-hour chart shows signs of divergence from the bottom, and the day is approaching the weekend. Beware of the risk of short covering. The current price does not seem to be too bearish on the Australian dollar for the time being.
Only personal views, not representative of the views of the organization
Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "Foreign Exchange Market Watch November 12, 2021"
Resistance 2: 1.1610
Resistance 1: 1.1520
Spot price: 1.1445
Support 1:1.1400
Support 2: 1.1300
After the United States announced strong CPI data on Wednesday, the market speculated that the out-of-control inflation in the United States might prompt the Fed to tighten policy, driving the dollar to rise, and the euro to plummet. The euro continued to fall against the US dollar on Thursday, falling below the key support area of 1.1495-93-the March 2020 high and the 50% retracement of the 2020-2021 bull trend, reaching the lowest intraday level of 1.1439. The decline of the euro against the dollar seems to continue, as the currency pair has broken the lower limit of the recent consolidation range. The next potential support is at the monthly 1.1450 and 1.1380. If all of the above water levels fall below, the target of the attack below will be the price range of 1.10-1.12. The top is currently still a strong resistance at 1.17.
Currency: GBP/USD
Resistance 2: 1.3486
Resistance 1: 1.3433
Spot price: 1.3371
Support 1: 1.3313
Support 2: 1.3225
On November 11, the British pound against the U.S. dollar once refreshed the lowest level since 2021 at 1.3358. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom showed that the British economy grew by 0.6% in September, but the valuation in the previous few months was revised lower, making the gross domestic product (GDP) less than that shortly before the British entered the first new crown lockdown. In February 2020, it shrank by 0.6%. The British economy grew by 1.3% between July and September. This marked a sharp deceleration from the 5.5% growth reported in the previous quarter, which was worse than the expected 1.5%. At the November policy meeting, the Bank of England kept its target interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. It had previously hinted that it might raise interest rates, which disappointed the market. The market now expects a high possibility of a rate hike in December, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, the British manufacturing and industrial production data are also lower than consensus estimates. People are also worried that the British government will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Agreement. The combination of these factors has an adverse effect on the pound. At the same time, the sudden drop in intraday exchange rates may be attributed to some technical selling below the 1.3400 integer, and intraday technical oversold helped the pound to rebound quickly from the daily lows of volatility. Even so, the risk is still biased towards the downside, and any rise may be seen as an opportunity to sell. The upper resistance levels focus on 1.3433, 1.3486, and 1.3557, and the lower support levels focus on 1.3364, 1.3312, and 1.3225.
Currency: AUD/USD
Resistance level 2: 0.7400
Resistance 1: 0.7325
Spot price: 0.7292
Support 1: 0.7265
Support 2: 0.7220
On Thursday, the Australian dollar continued to fall against the US dollar, but the magnitude was reduced, and it eased after hitting a recent low of 0.7286. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish views on cash interest rates still have an impact, even if the market is still pricing the central bank to raise interest rates significantly in the second half of 2022. The prices of commodities supported by the Australian dollar are still under shock pressure, because the decline in China's steel production may continue until the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. The volatility in the stock market has increased the prospect of further declines in the Australian dollar against the US dollar in the coming days. However, Australia is expected to be one of the countries with the highest vaccination rates in the world, which may help the Australian dollar to build momentum in 2022. The current account surplus also supports the Australian dollar. Technically, the 4-hour chart shows signs of divergence from the bottom, and the day is approaching the weekend. Beware of the risk of short covering. The current price does not seem to be too bearish on the Australian dollar for the time being.
Only personal views, not representative of the views of the organization
Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "Foreign Exchange Market Watch November 12, 2021"
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