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USD/JPY follows yields to decline from monthly high near 137.00; Japan PMI is disregarded
The USD/JPY maintains its position near the intraday low and ends a five-day uptrend at the one-month high. The Jibun Bank PMIs for August were less than anticipated and previous readings. As markets prepare for US PMIs and the Jackson Hole Symposium, yields decline. As bulls remain optimistic despite recession concerns and hawkish Fed predictions, it will be vital to monitor risk catalysts.
During Tuesday's Asian session, USD/JPY accepts offers to renew intraday low around 137.20, extending the decline from a monthly high, as market sentiment deteriorates amid contradictory signals and a cautious mindset ahead of the important data/events. In doing so, the yen pair posts its first daily loss in six days, even as Japan's August economic reports appear weak.
The preliminary August readings for Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.0, compared to 51.8 anticipated and 52.1 previously. The Jibun Bank Services PMI also decreased to 49.2 from 50.3 in previous readings and 50.7 as predicted by the market.
In other news, US 10-year Treasury rates have fallen from their monthly peak of 3.04% to 3.02% at press time, a decline of roughly two basis points (bps).
The decline in benchmark US bond yields may be attributable to the absence of strong triggers as well as conflicting rumors regarding the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Recently, China's Securities Times stated that the PBOC may lower RRR this year in order to compensate for the maturation of the medium-term lending facility (MLF). The article claims that reductions in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) may reduce prime lending rates. Notably, this is a government-run organization reporting such ideas.
Notably, Japan's willingness to print more money and Japanese exporters' decision to book profits appear to have also contributed to the USD/JPY pair's recent decline. Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan's Ministry of Finance will request $26.9 trillion yen ($195.5 billion) for debt servicing in the fiscal year beginning in April 2023.
In spite of this, forecasts of higher Fed rates and stronger US data, along with geopolitical concerns regarding Russia and Ukraine, kept USD/JPY buyers optimistic.
Consequently, the preliminary readings of the US PMIs for August, together with the US New Home Sales for July and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August, will adorn the schedule for today. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will be released on Friday, will be essential for establishing clear directions.
The region between 137.50 and 55 presents a challenge to USD/JPY bulls aiming for the July low near 139.40. However, sellers will be cautious until the price holds above the 50-DMA support level of 135.57, particularly in light of the positive MACD and RSI indications (14).
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