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USD/JPY flirts Japan's intervention on surpassing the 146.00 threshold for a 24-year high
USD/JPY climbs for the sixth day in a row, reaching a multi-year high. Rebounding Treasury yields, a risk-averse sentiment, and the Fed's hawkish bets benefit bulls. Japan statistics and the Tankan survey contribute to the upward momentum. The bulls will be anticipating aggressive Fed Minutes, but Japan's bond market could test the bullish advances.
During Wednesday's Asian session, USD/JPY bulls maintain control as they break over 145.90 resistance to post the highest levels since 1998, falling from 146.23 to 146.00 as of press time. In doing so, the yen pair tracks stronger rates and hawkish Fed wagers in an effort to encourage Japanese policymakers to conduct another market intervention to preserve the yen. Negative factors from Japan may also contribute to rising prices.
In August, Japan's Machinery Orders fell the most in a single month in the past six months, down 5.8% MoM. However, the annual statistics were similarly disappointing and trailed market predictions by 12.6% and the preceding year by 12.6%.
Elsewhere, Reuters reported that a monthly poll that parallels the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) closely-watched Tankan quarterly survey indicated that manufacturers' sentiment is anticipated to worsen further over the next three months, while service-sector sentiment is anticipated to improve further.
In contrast, US 2-year Treasury yields reversed the previous day's retreat from a two-week high, falling down to 4.30 percent at the latest.
Concerning Fed bets, CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 78% possibility of a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) in November. In addition, US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rates as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, surged to the highest levels since September 28 while flashing 2.31 percent, which favors USD/JPY bulls.
In addition, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) most recent growth estimates have stoked global economic concerns, which favor the pair buyers. Tuesday, the IMF dropped its global economic growth forecast for 2023 from 2.9% in July to 2.7%, citing pressures from rising energy and food prices and interest rate hikes as the primary reasons for the change. Notable is that the Washington-based institute maintained its 3.2% growth prediction for 2022, compared to 6.0% for 2021.
Ahead of time, USD/JPY traders should monitor any attempts by Japanese policymakers to defend the yen through market intervention. Yields and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will also be significant.
密歇根州民主黨參議員斯塔貝諾不會在 2024 年尋求連任
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