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Market News USD/JPY Retreats Towards Its Monthly Low In The Wake Of Renewed USD Selling

USD/JPY Retreats Towards Its Monthly Low In The Wake Of Renewed USD Selling

USD/JPY encounters resistance near the 150.00 level and declines for the third consecutive day. The USD continues to be burdened by pessimistic Fed expectations, which serve as a headwind for the pair. A positive risk sentiment could devalue the safe-haven JPY and assist in preventing additional losses.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-11-20

12443

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair encounters new supply after an Asian session surge to the 150.00 psychological threshold and continues to drift into negative territory for the third consecutive day. At present, spot prices are fluctuating in the mid-149.00s, which is significantly below the monthly low that was retested on Friday.

Ahead of September 1st, the US Dollar (USD) hovers near its lowest level due to dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is considered a significant headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Currently, investors appear to be certain that the US central bank has concluded its interest rate hikes; last week's data, which revealed that consumer inflation was declining at a quicker rate than expected, bolstered these bets. Moreover, the markets have recently priced in nearly 100 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts through December 2024, which has contributed to the precipitous decline in US Treasury bond yields.

On Friday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dropped to a two-month low of 4.379%, thereby impeding USD bulls' ability to place aggressive wagers and capping the USD/JPY pair's upside. In contrast, the Japanese Yen (JPY) experiences a slight appreciation in response to optimistic remarks made by Finance Minister Sunichi Suzuki of Japan. Suzuki asserts that the current period presents an unprecedented opportunity to overcome deflation and praises the promising developments in the Japanese economy. This contributes an additional 60 pips to the intraday decline of the pair from its daily high.

However, a broadly upbeat sentiment on Asian equities could weaken the safe-haven JPY and provide the USD/JPY pair with some support. However, considering the aforementioned fundamental context, it appears that current prices have a downward trajectory towards the point of least resistance. Therefore, in the absence of significant market-moving economic reports from Japan or the United States on Monday, any endeavour to recapture ground could potentially be perceived as a selling opportunity and may rapidly dissipate.