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USD/CHF Declines To 0.8770 As Investors Await US Inflation Data
On Thursday, USD/CHF loses momentum below the 0.8800 barrier. The markets currently anticipate a rate hike of approximately 40% in November and a rate reduction in June 2024. The weaker Swiss data restrained the Swiss Franc's appreciation. The focus will be on the annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Nonfarm Payrolls.
During Thursday's early Asian trading hours, the USD/CHF pair loses its recovery momentum and maintains below the 0.8800 level. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD's value relative to six other main currencies, loses momentum and hovers near 103.00. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF exchange rate is 0.8772, a decrease of 0.14%.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reported on Wednesday that the US ADP Employment Change decreased from 371K in July to 177K in August, which was below the market's expectation of 195K. In addition, the initial estimate of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices for the second quarter decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%. In conclusion, the second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualised Q2 decreased from 2.4% to 2.1%.
The markets are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 40% in November and a rate reduction in June 2024. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that a prospective additional rate hike would depend on incoming data, the markets anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its tightened policy sooner than anticipated. The state of the labour market may influence the USD's direction in the short term. The release of US employment data later this week could trigger market volatility, according to market participants.
On the Swiss franc front, weaker-than-anticipated Swiss data curbed the CHF's appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The August KOF Leading Indicator came in at 91.1 on Wednesday, down from 92.01 the previous month and below market expectations of 91.5. In the meantime, the ZEW Survey of Expectations for the same period decreased to -38.6 from -32.6 the previous month, missing the consensus estimate of -31.3.
Aside from the data, the economic difficulties of China may benefit the traditional safe-haven Swiss Franc. According to Reuters, Country Garden, the largest private real estate developer in China, issued a default notice on Wednesday should its financial performance continue to deteriorate.
Thursday afternoon will see the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), weekly Jobless Claims, and the Chicago PMI. On Friday, the focus will transfer to the annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls. These figures may cause market volatility, and traders will find trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.
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