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Market News USD/CHF Consolidates Gains Above The 0.8660 Level, With An Eye On The US Dollar

USD/CHF Consolidates Gains Above The 0.8660 Level, With An Eye On The US Dollar

The USD/CHF pair maintains gains above the 0.8660 level, declining 0.05% on the day. After the Fed's meeting in July, market participants are re-pricing another rate hike. The Swiss Trade Balance increased by 4,823 million from its previous level of 5,442 million. Next week's most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy meeting.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-07-21

10997

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During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair consolidates its recent gains above the 0.8660 level. Thursday's reversal from the 0.8560 level was prompted by the US Unemployment Claims report and the possibility of another Fed rate hike following the July meeting.

The US Department of Labour (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 15 totaled 228,000, lower than the expected 242,000 and the previous total of 237,000. The reading represented the lowest level since mid-May. In contrast, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey came in at -13, as opposed to the expected -10. Existing sales also showed a 3.3% MoM decline in June, compared to a 0.2% prior increase.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against six other currencies, has gained momentum since the release of the data and rebounded from the 100.00 level. This, in turn, provides support for the USD/CHF pair.

In addition, market participants are revaluing the likelihood of another Fed rate hike following the July meeting, causing the dollar to recover. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a meeting in November increased from 19.8% a week ago to 32.2% today, indicating that speculators' views on Fed monetary policy are shifting.

In contrast, the Swiss Trade Balance increased by 4,823 million from 5,442 million previously, which was 5,442 million less than anticipated. In May, exports increased to 24,917 M from 23,879 M, while imports increased to 20,093 M from 18,445 M.

In this context, the conservative market sentiment regarding the US-China relationship could be advantageous for the safe-haven Swiss Franc. The renewed trade war tension may limit the dollar's upside and operate as a headwind for USD/CHF.

Without any significant data disclosures on Friday. Next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements are anticipated by market participants. This major event could have a significant impact on the dynamics of the US Dollar and provide distinct direction for the USD/CHF pair.