USD/CAD Bulls Approach Monthly Hurdle Near 1.3480 Amid Weakening Oil Price And Negative Sentiment

USD/CAD climbs beyond 1.3450 as bulls maintain control for a fourth consecutive day amid broad US Dollar strength and declining WTI crude oil prices on Friday morning. In doing so, the Loonie pair validates dovish discourse from Bank of Canada (BoC) officials in contrast to hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, not to mention positive US data.

Previously in Asia, BoC Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry stated, "The floating Canadian dollar provides the bank with the opportunity to chart a different course than its trade partners and concentrate on setting interest rates." The same supports the dovish view about the Canadian central bank, as earlier verified by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem when he stated on Thursday, "We've seen some signs that our interest rate rises are beginning to dampen demand and rebalance our overheated economy.""

On the other hand, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, hinted at recession troubles while reiterating her prior support of the highest rates. James Bullard of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has stated, "Continued policy rate rises can help lock in a disinflationary trend in 2023, notwithstanding sustained expansion and robust labor markets, by keeping inflation expectations low."

Regarding the statistics, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January received the greatest attention from USD/JPY buyers since June, when it increased by 0.7% MoM. The improvement in US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 10 (194K versus 200K predicted and 195K previously) was also favorable for the pair. In contrast, the January decline in Housing Starts and the February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey seems to have garnered some notice.

At the time of publication, the price of WTI crude oil had posted modest increases while trimming weekly losses to about $78.40. Given the Canadian economy's reliance on exports of WTI, the weekly decline in the price of black gold benefits USD/CAD bulls.

In addition to central bank discussions, US statistics, and Oil's movement, geopolitical factors drive the USD/CAD exchange rate. Yet, the recent escalation in tensions between the United States and China, as well as Russia's refusal to back down from its attack on Ukraine, weigh on risk appetite and fuel the Loonie-Dollar pair due to the Dollar's safe-haven demand. During an interview with NBC News, US Vice President Joseph Biden fired shots at his Chinese counterpart while relaying expectations for a conversation with the Chinese leader. "I believe the last thing Xi would want is to fundamentally sever ties with the United States and myself." "said US President Biden citing Reuters.

As a result of these maneuvers, 10-year US Treasury note rates reached a new high since December 30, 2022, rising 3.5 basis points to 3.87 percent as of press time. In the same vein, the yields on two-year US Treasury bonds conclude Thursday around 4.64%, the highest level since November 2022, reaching 4.65% at the latest. In addition, Wall Street closed in the red, while S&P 500 Futures fell 0.30 percent intraday as of press time.

In conclusion, the risk-averse sentiment and hawkish Fed comments, in contrast to the dovish BoC, can keep the USD/CAD pair firmer, despite the Oil price licking its wounds.