USD rises to 2-month high as Fed’s decision on rates
The US Securities Regulatory Commission postponed the Bitcoin ETF decision, and the Bitcoin hash rate dropped to a 6.5-month low; the US dollar jumped to a two-month high on Thursday (17th) against major currencies, mainly because the Fed hinted that it would raise interest rates early and end Buying debts and turning hawkish attitudes surprised the market.

The ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the trend of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.53% to 91.891 late in New York, the highest since mid-April. DXY week three rose nearly 1%, the biggest one-day gain since March 2020.
The interest rate forecast dot chart shows that as inflation expectations rise, the Fed will speed up its tightening schedule and begin discussing the timing of reducing emergency debt purchase plans. More than half of the officials at the meeting predict that interest rates will rise at least twice in 2023 (1 each time). Yards or 25 basis points).
However, a report from the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that in the week ending June 12, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose to 412,000, higher than market expectations and the highest since May 15. The number of continuous applicants is 3.518 million, which is also higher than market expectations.
The Fed's new forecast has prompted Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and other institutions to abandon their view of shorting the US dollar. However, Chuck Tomes, portfolio manager of Manulife Asset Management, predicts that the U.S. dollar will fluctuate and weaken in the longer term.
Among the major currencies, only the New Zealand dollar appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar. The report on Thursday showed that New Zealand's economy grew 0.4% in the first quarter. Better than market expectations.
The Australian dollar fell 0.72% to 0.75545 US dollars against the US dollar, the lowest since April 1, and continued to fall after a 1% drop on Wednesday. Australia’s job creation in May exceeded analysts’ expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to a pre-epidemic low, but central bank governor Philip Lowe reiterated that it will maintain ultra-low interest rates for two years or more.
The U.S. dollar climbed 0.77% against the Norwegian Krone. The Norges Bank remained unchanged as expected, but hinted that it may raise interest rates in September, and as the economy recovers, the path to raise interest rates will tend to be steep.
The pound fell below 1.4 US dollars against the US dollar, a five-week low.
Bitcoin continues to fall
After Bitcoin returned to the $40,000 threshold overnight, given that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates early in 2023, Bitcoin is under pressure again to fall, while the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt have jumped and risen. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed the decision to postpone the VanEck Bitcoin ETF. This is the second time the SEC has extended the review period of the bid by 45 days. After China cracked down on cryptocurrency mining, the current Bitcoin hashrate (Hashrate) has fallen to a low of 6.5 months.
The price of Bitcoin continued to fall by 2.96% to $38,798.32. Although the price of Bitcoin briefly rose by nearly 3% after the Fed maintained its loose monetary policy, the world's largest cryptocurrency went lower for most of Wednesday. At present, traders continue to make long and short bets. On the one hand, they must balance regulatory uncertainty and on the other, they must adapt to the loose macro background that has brought returns to risky assets in the past few years.
In the Bitcoin options market, hedging costs remain high, indicating that the concerns caused by the May sell-off have not yet completely dissipated. According to data provided by Skew, a 3-month Bitcoin option premium for put option contracts executed at 80% of the spot price. The current level of hedging is still higher than the May low, when prices fell nearly 30%.
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