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Market News U.S. oil turned up and tried to regain the 69 mark, but there is not much room for upside during the year

U.S. oil turned up and tried to regain the 69 mark, but there is not much room for upside during the year

On September 2nd, the European and American oil market turned up and tried to stabilize the US$69 mark. Although EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected, OPEC+ agreed to maintain its policy of gradually increasing supply to the market, but the surge in global new crown virus cases may slow down oil demand Recovery will not leave much upside for oil prices for the rest of 2021. If oil prices continue to exceed the $70/barrel mark, demand needs to be more certain, and Iran will not increase production suddenly.

2021-09-02
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In the European market on Thursday (September 2), US crude oil futures prices turned up, trying to stabilize the US$69 mark. Although EIA crude oil inventories fell more than expected, OPEC+ agreed to maintain its policy of gradually increasing supply to the market, but the global new crown The surge in virus cases may slow the recovery of oil demand and will not leave much upside for oil prices for the rest of 2021.

As of press time, the US crude oil futures price reported US$69.05/barrel, an increase of 0.67%, and the Brent crude oil futures price reported US$72.11/barrel, an increase of 0.73%.



On Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing countries (OPEC+), including Russia, agreed to stick to their existing policy of gradually increasing oil production, even though they raised their 2022 demand forecast and the United States continued to pressure it to increase it more quickly. Yield. In July, OPEC and Russia-led allies agreed to gradually cut record production cuts, increasing oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month.

Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market at Rystad Energy, said in a report that considering the new lockdown risks and coping with the unresolved spread of the new coronavirus, it is not yet certain whether energy demand can be as fast as OPEC+ and market forecasts. increase.

After U.S. Hurricane Ida swept through Louisiana, it may take several weeks for refineries in the area to restart. Operators face power and water shortages, which may curb oil demand. U.S. offshore regulators said that energy companies are vying to restart platforms and pipelines in the Gulf region, and oil production of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day is still in a state of suspension.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that despite an increase in new coronavirus infections across the United States, US crude oil inventories have fallen by about 7.2 million barrels, and petroleum products supplied by refineries have risen to record levels.

Specific data show that the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 7.169 million barrels in the week ending August 27, and the expected decrease was 2.927 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 2.98 million barrels; EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 1.732 million barrels in the week ending August 27. It is expected to decrease by 80.9 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 645,000 barrels; as of August 27, the EIA gasoline inventory increased by 1.29 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 1.367 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 2.241 million barrels.

Capital Investment Macro Commodities Analyst Kieran Clancy said that in the next few weeks, US crude oil inventories seem likely to rise, because reports indicate that after Hurricane Ida, it will take longer than crude oil production to resume refinery activities.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, released a report saying that OPEC+ members agreed to continue to increase production gradually. Due to global demand concerns, U.S. crude oil is expected to be traded below $70, and the crude oil market is likely to continue to face disadvantages from the Delta mutant strain. The impact is that it takes time to fully approve Pfizer’s vaccine to increase vaccination rates, and the OPEC+ plan’s 400,000 barrels/day supply increase also eliminates some supply-side support.

The bank believes that because demand is lower than expected a few weeks ago, the global crude oil market will obviously not be as tight as initially thought. In fact, the previously predicted deficit in the third quarter of 2021 may turn into a moderate surplus, and crude oil prices should be very high. It is difficult to rise sharply above the recent trading range. If oil prices continue to exceed the $70/barrel mark, demand needs to be more certain, and Iran will not suddenly increase production.

Preliminary data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group crude oil futures market showed that traders increased their holdings of crude oil open positions by nearly 18,000 on Wednesday, ending Tuesday’s decline and restarting growth. Volume increased by approximately 225,300 contracts, offsetting the previous day's decline.
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