Market News U.S. oil has turned up, but whether it can stand above the 70 mark depends on its "face"
U.S. oil has turned up, but whether it can stand above the 70 mark depends on its "face"
On September 3, the price of US crude oil futures in the European market turned up and tried to stabilize at US$70. On September 2, due to the weakening of the US dollar and the unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories, it rose strongly by about 2%. This week is expected to close for the second consecutive week. The focus turned to the August non-agricultural employment report in the United States. Exaggerated low expectations and excessive shorting of the U.S. dollar may trigger a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar. At that time, the prices of commodities such as crude oil denominated in U.S. dollars may weaken.
2021-09-03
8168
In the European market on Friday (September 3), U.S. crude oil futures prices turned up and tried to stabilize at $70. On Thursday (September 2), due to the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, they rose strongly by about 2%. This week is expected to close for the second consecutive week, and the current focus is shifting to the August non-agricultural employment report in the United States.
As of press time, the US crude oil futures price was reported at 70.12 US dollars per barrel, up 0.19%, and the Brent crude oil futures price was reported at 73.42 US dollars per barrel, up 0.53%.
Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said that the decline in crude oil prices may be due to traders closing their positions before the release of the August non-farm payrolls report in the United States, because of concerns that the report may fall short of consensus.
The median forecast by economists shows that the US employment population may increase by 725,000 in August, which is slower than the growth rate of the previous two months, but stronger than the growth rate at the beginning of this year. The strong data will show that after months of limited labor supply, companies have achieved more success in recruiting. But the risks associated with the delta strain may mean that non-farm payrolls data is weaker than expected and complicate the Fed's timetable for reducing asset purchases.
FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam believes that the most important statistical data for the Fed’s key decision in September is the August non-agricultural employment data to be released in the evening, and the exaggerated low expectations and excessive shorting of the US dollar may trigger a sharp rebound in the US dollar. Nong has caused a sensation for the third time in a row, and the Fed may launch its austerity plan in less than a few weeks, or at least announce the austerity plan in advance.
The main reason for the increase in oil prices this week is the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which makes the price of oil in other currencies lower. The U.S. dollar index has continued to fall after Fed Chairman Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting last Friday. After nearly a month of lows, the weaker U.S. dollar has also made commodities such as crude oil more attractive to investors. In addition, Hurricane Ida may lead to a reduction in supply.
Although Hurricane Ida has subsided, nearly 94% of the crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico remains closed. Refineries in Louisiana may take several weeks to restart, which will weaken demand for crude oil, but the slow recovery of offshore crude oil production due to damage to critical support facilities may offset this impact. The US Security and Environmental Enforcement Agency said on Thursday that there are still 1.7 million barrels per day of production closed, up from 1.46 million barrels per day the day before.
Analysts said that due to the surge in cases of new coronavirus infections, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) insisted on their plans this week to add 40,000 barrels a day to the market in the next few months, and demand may become the focus of attention. The CEO of Russian gas company Gazprom said that we expect high volatility in the energy market, and the future depends on OPEC+'s response.
Innes said that the focus has once again shifted to demand recovery. Some people worry that if OPEC+ continues to increase supply at the expected 400,000 barrels per day, it will be a challenge to keep supply in short supply next year.
The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group crude oil futures market showed that the number of open positions in crude oil on Thursday increased for the second consecutive day, with an increase of nearly 19,000. Volume increased by approximately 66,700 contracts.
As of press time, the US crude oil futures price was reported at 70.12 US dollars per barrel, up 0.19%, and the Brent crude oil futures price was reported at 73.42 US dollars per barrel, up 0.53%.
Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said that the decline in crude oil prices may be due to traders closing their positions before the release of the August non-farm payrolls report in the United States, because of concerns that the report may fall short of consensus.
The median forecast by economists shows that the US employment population may increase by 725,000 in August, which is slower than the growth rate of the previous two months, but stronger than the growth rate at the beginning of this year. The strong data will show that after months of limited labor supply, companies have achieved more success in recruiting. But the risks associated with the delta strain may mean that non-farm payrolls data is weaker than expected and complicate the Fed's timetable for reducing asset purchases.
FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam believes that the most important statistical data for the Fed’s key decision in September is the August non-agricultural employment data to be released in the evening, and the exaggerated low expectations and excessive shorting of the US dollar may trigger a sharp rebound in the US dollar. Nong has caused a sensation for the third time in a row, and the Fed may launch its austerity plan in less than a few weeks, or at least announce the austerity plan in advance.
The main reason for the increase in oil prices this week is the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which makes the price of oil in other currencies lower. The U.S. dollar index has continued to fall after Fed Chairman Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting last Friday. After nearly a month of lows, the weaker U.S. dollar has also made commodities such as crude oil more attractive to investors. In addition, Hurricane Ida may lead to a reduction in supply.
Although Hurricane Ida has subsided, nearly 94% of the crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico remains closed. Refineries in Louisiana may take several weeks to restart, which will weaken demand for crude oil, but the slow recovery of offshore crude oil production due to damage to critical support facilities may offset this impact. The US Security and Environmental Enforcement Agency said on Thursday that there are still 1.7 million barrels per day of production closed, up from 1.46 million barrels per day the day before.
Analysts said that due to the surge in cases of new coronavirus infections, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) insisted on their plans this week to add 40,000 barrels a day to the market in the next few months, and demand may become the focus of attention. The CEO of Russian gas company Gazprom said that we expect high volatility in the energy market, and the future depends on OPEC+'s response.
Innes said that the focus has once again shifted to demand recovery. Some people worry that if OPEC+ continues to increase supply at the expected 400,000 barrels per day, it will be a challenge to keep supply in short supply next year.
The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group crude oil futures market showed that the number of open positions in crude oil on Thursday increased for the second consecutive day, with an increase of nearly 19,000. Volume increased by approximately 66,700 contracts.
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