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US Dollar Index Resumes Ascent Toward 103.00 On The Back Of Encouraging US Data, Hawkish Fed Discussions, And Debt Ceiling Drama
The US Dollar Index climbs after reversing a weekly decline from the monthly peak. In April, US Retail Sales and Industrial Production surpassed expectations, and Fed policymakers defend their hawkish stance. US President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy concluded their debt ceiling negotiations prematurely, citing expectations for a resolution by this weekend. Second-tier US housing data and risk catalysts are scrutinized for direction clarity.
US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.60 in the early hours of Wednesday, following a rally that reversed the early week retreat from the five-week highs. With this, the dollar's index against six major currencies justifies ebullient US data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments, while also noting the most recent positive development regarding the US debt ceiling.
The meeting between US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy lasted less than an hour and raised hopes for a positive outcome, as congressional leaders stated, "A deal is possible by the end of the week." Following the news, Reuters cites S&P Global Market Intelligence data and notes a decline in one-year US Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads from 164 to 155 basis points (bps). Spreads on five-year CDS decreased from 72 basis points on Monday to 69 basis points on Tuesday.
However, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently defended the US central bank's hawkish actions at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta by citing inflation woes. Previously, Thomas Barkin of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond stated in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) that there is no impediment in my mind to further rate increases if inflation persists or, God forbid, accelerates. In the same vein, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated, "I don't think we're at that hold rate yet."
Notable is the fact that US Retail Sales improved to 0.4% MoM for April, up from -0.7% prior (revised) and in line with expectations of 0.4%. Moreover, Retail Sales Control Group for the aforementioned month exceeded market expectations of 0.0% and -0.4% prior with a 0.7% actual figure, while Retail Sales excluding Autos for April matched 0.4% MoM expectations surpassing the -0.5% prior. In addition, the US Industrial Production MoM for April rose to 0.5%, exceeding expectations of 0.0%.
As a result of these maneuvers, US Treasury bond yields strengthened and Wall Street posted losses on Tuesday. At the time of publication, however, S&P500 Futures exhibit slight gains.
US Building Permits and Housing Starts for April will decorate today's calendar and provide DXY traders with entertainment. However, the primary focus will be on US debt ceiling updates and Fed discussions for clear direction.
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