US Dollar Index: DXY Holds Above 103.00 Despite Firmer Yields, Risk-Off Sentiment, And Focus On US NFP
The US Dollar Index receives bids to reverse Thursday's retreat from a three-week peak. Despite mixed data, market sentiment deteriorates due to China data and concerns of hawkish central bank action. US employment indicators appear generally optimistic, causing Treasury bond yields to reclaim multi-month highs. Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls are required to corroborate a Fed rate hike beyond July and support the DXY amid hawkish FOMC Minutes.

During Friday's Asian session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates the previous day's heavy losses, the most in a week, while publishing modest gains between 103.15 and 103.20. In doing so, the dollar index versus the six major currencies reflects the pre-data positioning for the crucial US employment figures amid a rise in US Treasury bond yields and heightened risk aversion.
Nonetheless, the market's risk aversion increases as largely positive US employment data bolster hawkish Fed bets, even as recession concerns loom and China-related headlines are unimpressive. In addition, the tension between the United States and China weighs heavily on sentiment, which in turn supports the US Dollar Index.
However, the recent improvement in US employment indicators supports hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the likelihood of a policy reversal has increased since the US central bank halted its rate hike trajectory in July. In addition to the market's scepticism advance of the data, the DXY bulls are also cautious.
Thursday marked the largest one-month increase in US ADP Employment Change since February 2022, to 497K for June, compared to 228K expected and 267K prior (revised). In addition, the ISM Services PMI increased to 53.9 in June from 50.3 in May, exceeding market expectations of 51.0. In addition, the Challenges Job Cuts decreases to 40,709K from previous readings of 80,089K. However, the JOLTS Job Openings decrease from 10.103 million to 9.8 million, compared to analysts' prediction of 9.93 million. Initial Jobless Claims also increased to 248K for the week ending June 30, compared to 245K expected and 236K previous readings (revised).
According to Reuters, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is currently in China to resolve "unfair practises" as termed by the Biden administration. According to the news, the policymaker will meet with China's Premier Li Qiang and former economy tsar Liu He, a close confidant of President Xi Jinping.
Wall Street ended the day in the red, and US Treasury bond yields rose to a multi-day high before retreating.
For further direction, DXY traders will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is anticipated to decline to 225K from 339K. If the employment report is positive, the US Dollar could appreciate further.
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