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Market News US Dollar Index: DXY Falls Back Towards The Sub-103.00 Zone Following The Fed's Meeting; US Retail Sales On The Horizon

US Dollar Index: DXY Falls Back Towards The Sub-103.00 Zone Following The Fed's Meeting; US Retail Sales On The Horizon

After a two-day decline, the US Dollar Index fails to recover from its lowest level in a month and remains under pressure. The Fed's hawkish pause, optimistic dot plot, and optimistic economic projections fail to impress DXY investors. As Powell's speech emphasises a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to determining interest rates, incoming US data appears more significant.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-06-15

7344

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US Dollar Index (DXY) accepts bids near 102.95 for a retest of its intraday low as it fails to defend late Wednesday's corrective rebound off the lowest levels in a month during early Thursday trading in Asia. This reflects the market's dovish sentiment towards the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the Fed halted its rate hike trajectory.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the benchmark Fed rate unchanged at 5.0-5.25%, in line with market expectations of a halt to the multi-month hawkish cycle that had pushed rates higher 10 times in a row.

After the Interest Rate Decision, the FOMC released hawkish signals via Economic Projections, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech was also bullish on the US central bank.

Notably, the dot plot for 2024 and 2025 increased by 30 basis points from March to 4.6% and 3.5%, respectively, while the median rate forecasts indicate two more rate increases in 2023. In addition, neither rate cuts nor a recession are anticipated for the current year, while the median estimate for the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose from 0.4% in March to 1.0% in April. In addition, Powell's speech reveals a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to decision-making, but identifies July as a 'active' meeting, suggesting a 0.25 percentage point rate increase.

Prior to the Fed meeting, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May fell to 1.1% YoY, compared to 1.5% expected and 2.8% previously.

US Dollar Index traders may pay close attention to US Retail Sales for May and second-tier activity data for May and June, as the US central bank has emphasised the importance of each incoming data for decision-making in light of Fed-induced market movements and DXY losses.