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US Dollar Index: DXY Drags Near The Middle Of The 103,000 Range As Markets Await US Inflation And Federal Reserve Policy Decisions
The US Dollar Index defends Friday's corrective bounce, but fails to gain impetus following a two-week downtrend. Reassessment of Fed bets and inflation indicators stimulates DXY bears advance of the most important data and events. The US CPI must corroborate the market's expectations for no Fed rate hike in June.
US Dollar Index (DXY) accurately depicts pre-Fed anxiety as it oscillates around 103.50 on Monday morning in Asia, after falling for two consecutive weeks. Even though bears remain optimistic as of late, it is worth noting that a light economic calendar and a reassessment of Fed bets have placed a floor under the dollar's index versus six major currencies.
Despite recent US statistics favoring a halt in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate increase trajectory, as evidenced by the market's bets on a Fed rate hike in June, inflation concerns remain on the table, giving Fed hawks reason for optimism. Consequently, Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, which is anticipated to decline to 4.2% YoY from 4.9% previously, becomes crucial and gives DXY speculators time to lick their wounds prior to the outcome.
In light of this, ANZ analysts stated, "US May CPI data will be released just prior to the FOMC decision, adding some uncertainty to the immediate forecast – a strong core estimate could force the FOMC's hand. The median market estimate predicts that core inflation rose 0.4% month-over-month, while the headline rate rose 0.2% due to falling energy prices.
It should be noted that the US Dollar was weighed down by the weak May US activity numbers and disappointing employment indicators. However, the most recent United States Initial Jobless Claims rose to their highest level since September 2021, while the US ISM Services PMI, S&P Global PMIs, and Factory Orders all posted weaker results for May. This pushed back Fed conservatives, which weighed on the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index bears are able to take a breather amid a light calendar and a lack of significant data/events as fears of a global economic slowdown combine with softer European and Chinese data.
Notably, US Treasury bond yields continue to climb, allowing DXY bulls to maintain optimism even as Wall Street and S&P500 Futures stimulate greenback bulls with positive results.
Moving forward, a thin macro line may pose a challenge to momentum speculators, but concerns over US inflation and the Federal Reserve can influence the DXY.
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