Thermal coal continues to rise to close to 1,300 yuan, and the severe cold weather this winter will intensify the pressure of coal shortage

The main contract of ZCE's thermal coal futures continued to rise this week. After the opening on Tuesday, it further rose to close to the 1,300 yuan/ton mark. There is no sign of stopping the rise. Due to the shortage of energy supply, it has become a problem that plagues the global economy. , And the supply of coal in the domestic market is more constrained by many factors.

Since last week, as coal prices have risen further, many parts of the country have faced the pressure of insufficient power supply. Therefore, energy officials have come forward to call for the orderly implementation of the "double reduction" policy of energy conservation and emission reduction to protect people's livelihood. However, despite this, insufficient production capacity Against the backdrop of rising demand, coal prices continue to increase inertially. On the one hand, the potential of domestic coal mines to increase production is limited, and the scale of mining is still restricted by the red lines of the environmental protection and safety supervision departments. On the other hand, the international oil and natural gas prices have soared, forcing the replacement demand for coal to rise again, and the price of imported coal is also the highest. High, and still need to pay high crew costs, so the supply pressure continues to increase.

On the demand side, on the one hand, the large-scale high-temperature weather in southern Jiangnan and South China continues, and may continue until mid-October, causing the demand for thermal coal to appear "not weak in the off-season" and continue to remain high, while the climate in the southwestern region is relatively high Drought has brought the river into a dry season ahead of schedule, and has also caused hydropower generation to be lower than in previous years, and more reliance on thermal power output. The contradiction between supply and demand has thus further increased. What the market is more worried about is that in the context of meteorological data showing that a new round of "La Niña" phenomenon is about to strike, the temperature in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, including northern my country, may be lower than normal in the winter of 2021-22. , Which will make the energy supply even more overwhelmed.

Analysts predict that once there is an overall "cold winter" situation in the northern hemisphere, Shibi will push up overseas natural gas and heating oil demand, leading to further increases in oil and gas import prices, and domestic coal and natural gas prices may continue to rise at the same time. Once the peak energy consumption season in winter comes, the "cold winter" may further aggravate energy shortages, and the pressure on winter storage and replenishment and maintaining supply during the heating season will also increase.

Although, in the remainder of the second half of the year, the Chinese government's coal "guarantee supply" measures will be gradually implemented, which is expected to boost coal production capacity and ease supply pressure to a certain extent. However, even if domestic thermal coal returns to its peak production capacity, the cost of import Under the situation where the high demand cannot be filled, the risk of shortage will still exist, and the further recovery of the economy from the epidemic will also bring more demand. Together with the seasonal peak of winter demand, it means that at least before the end of the year, High thermal coal prices are difficult to record against a decline, and high energy costs will become the "new normal" situation facing the economy.