Market News The impact of major events and indicators next week (September 20 to September 26)
The impact of major events and indicators next week (September 20 to September 26)
The market will usher in the central bank decision week next week, and the central banks of the four major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. In addition to the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions. It is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as the Fed.
2021-09-18
8145
The market will usher in the central bank decision week next week, and the central banks of the four major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. This time the Fed's resolution will not only announce the economic forecasts, but also the latest dot-map, which will provide important guidance for market forecasts on the direction of the Fed's policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy in the next few months. In addition to the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions. It is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as the Fed.
In addition to the central bank’s decision, investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the US government’s debt ceiling, the US government’s tax hikes and economic stimulus plans, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring the market next week. Come greater volatility. Next, let us count the timing of the major events next week.
List of important economic data
The Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival has a compensatory holiday and the market is closed for one day.
Japan Respect for the Aged Day, the market is closed for one day.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
To be determined Canada holds the 2021 federal election.
18:35 European Central Bank Executive Committee member Schnabel delivered a speech.
In the Asian session on September 20, investors first paid attention to the opening trends of various varieties. News on the weekend may cause gaps in the opening of various varieties in the morning and aggravate market price volatility. Investors pay special attention to it. The Chinese market is closed due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and it is expected that the volatility in the Asian session will be very limited.
During European time, investors can pay a little attention to Germany's August PPI. Due to scarce economic data, the market trend may also be relatively light.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to find the direction of market sentiment changes.
09:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
During the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, the market will be closed for one day.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
To be determined The OECD will update its economic forecasts for major economies in its mid-term outlook report.
15:05 European Central Bank Deputy Governor Gindos delivered a speech.
In the Asian session on September 21, investors trading in Australian dollars paid a little attention to Australia's consumer confidence index, and then focused on the minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. The Chinese market and the Korean market will be closed due to the Mid-Autumn Festival.
In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained both the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury bond yield target at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasized that conditions for raising interest rates will not appear until 2024 at the earliest. According to the key content of the interest rate decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the size of debt purchases from A$5 billion per week to A$4 billion per week, and continue at least until mid-February 2022. This reflects the delay in economic recovery and the outbreak of delta strains. Uncertainty that comes. The Reserve Bank of Australia also mentioned that the new crown epidemic interrupted Australia's economic recovery, but the regression of economic expansion is only temporary. Continue to review the bond purchase plan and assess the level of bond purchases in mid-February next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia also stated that it expects that the gross domestic product in the September quarter will fall sharply, and the unemployment rate will rise in the coming months. It is expected that the new crown Delta variant strain will delay the economic recovery, rather than undermine the economic recovery. The core assumption is to achieve economic growth in the December quarter.
During the European time, economic data is scarce, and the market trend is more in line with the direction given by the technology.
During the New York session, investors pay attention to the two real estate market data in the United States, housing starts and building permits.
Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. real estate market has been extremely hot and has aroused market attention. Data show that in July, US house prices rose by 18% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. The current US housing prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising. With the surge in market demand, in the second quarter of this year, the occupancy rate of U.S. rental apartments reached 96.9% in July, pushing the rent of newly signed leases to rise by 17%, a record high. The rise in US real estate prices is inseparable from the Fed's financial policy support and the demand brought by the wave of "millennials" buying houses. But as the Fed’s policy turning point approaches, risks in the US real estate market are also rising.
From a financial perspective, experts said that since real estate is a typical highly leveraged sector (residential mortgage loans on the demand side and housing development loans on the supply side), the real estate market is extremely sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, excess liquidity and low interest rates. Will greatly increase the speculative demand for real estate. Since the outbreak of the epidemic last year, the Fed has successively adopted interest rate cuts and large-scale quantitative easing (QE) to cope with the economic downturn. Under this pattern, the long-term interest rate has declined significantly, and the fixed interest rate of 30-year mortgage loans has also continued to drop, which is still at a historically low level, which in turn promotes residents' willingness to borrow to buy houses.
Wall Street experts bluntly said: The Fed has so distorted the trend of long-term assets. We have seen that long-term assets have a very natural response to monetary stimulus, and then a long-term upward trend has formed. Anyone who holds these risky assets is very firmly convinced that long-term interest rates will not rise. But when it comes to when the bubble will burst, no one knows the answer.
In addition, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the evening API crude oil inventory data.
The market is closed for one day on the day following the Mid-Autumn Festival in Hong Kong, China.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
Around 11:00, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a press conference.
02:00 The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and publishes a summary of economic forecasts.
02:30 Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.
During the Asian session on September 22, the Hong Kong market was closed. Investors first pay attention to China's five-year loan interest rate quotes, and then GMT+8 around 11 o'clock, focusing on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policies and maintain short- and long-term interest rates at current or lower levels. Data show that as of June this year, Japan’s total holdings of US debt reached US$1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.
However, after implementing many years of shock and deterrent stimulus policies, the Bank of Japan is quietly retracting the aggressive policy boldly launched by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and is the first to adopt controversial new measures to blur the line between the central bank’s business and politics. Insiders said that the Bank of Japan’s move to lift this complex set of policies was promoted by Deputy Governor Masaka Amamiya.
The complicated policy framework of Kuroda Haruhiko is the product of years of unsuccessful attempts by the central bank to boost stagnant consumer prices. As the economy is struggling with the epidemic, Masaka Amamiya and Councilor Shinichi Uchida have already worked behind the scenes to make Kuroda's policy framework easier to control and ultimately return Japan to a more normal interest rate environment. The Bank of Japan has fewer and fewer monetary policy options, which means that these two ambitious technocrats are turning to push the central bank to implement plans similar to industrial policy.
During European time, economic data is relatively scarce, and the market is expected to be relatively thin. Investors are adjusting their positions for the evening Fed decision.
During the New York session, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the US EIA crude oil inventory data. In the latest monthly report of the IEA last week, it was announced that global oil demand would increase by 5.2 million barrels per day in 2021, maintaining the forecast that global oil demand would increase by 3.2 million barrels per day in 2022, and stated that global oil demand would increase to the end of the year. The IEA also stated that as hurricane "Ada" offset OPEC's production increase plan, the world must wait for more oil supplies. If OPEC+ continues to reduce the rate of production cuts, the market will begin to balance in October.
Citigroup predicts that under the influence of "Ada", the US crude oil production cut in September may reach 30 million barrels, and the October production cut will also reach 5 million barrels. As "Ada" led to a decline in US crude oil production, demand recovery in East Asia is taking place, which may support crude oil prices in the fourth quarter.
In the evening, at 2 o'clock in GMT+8, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution. This resolution will also announce economic expectations and dot plots. Whether the Fed will slow down its monthly bond purchases at this meeting has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that before the end of this year, it may begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases. Earlier speeches by many Fed officials showed that the delta strain did not shake their minds: they supported Chairman Powell’s message at the annual meeting of global central banks on August 27 that the Fed may start to reduce its weight later this year, despite the fact that Monthly non-agricultural employment growth has slowed due to the impact of the epidemic.
Analysts pointed out that disappointment with the US non-farm payrolls report in August will almost certainly prompt Fed policymakers to postpone consideration of reducing the scale of asset purchases at the September 21-22 meeting. Last month's non-agricultural employment data was far worse than expected, and employment growth was the lowest in seven months, indicating that Fed officials need to see more growth before they can start slowing down bond purchases.
Fed officials hope to see "significant growth" in employment and inflation, and the current slowdown in hiring due to the mutant virus may mean that the Fed will not start to reduce its debt until November or December; a former Fed economist said , The August non-agricultural report made debt reduction in September impossible, and the reduction in debt later this year is still the basic situation. The data in the next few months will be important for determining when to announce the reduction and the pace of the reduction.
According to people familiar with the matter, at the FOMC meeting in July, most Fed officials believed that it might be appropriate to start reducing the $120 billion monthly bond purchase plan before the end of the year. Some regional Fed presidents have been urging action as early as September. Others believe that we should be patient to assess the economic impact of mutant viruses.
The Japanese autumn equinox is closed for one day.
15:30 The Swiss National Bank announces its interest rate decision.
16:00 The European Central Bank announces its economic bulletin.
19:00 The Bank of England announced the interest rate decision and announced the minutes of the meeting.
00:00 The Federal Reserve releases the US quarterly financial report.
During the Asian session on September 23, Japan's autumn equinox was closed for one day, and investors focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors paid close attention to the performance of manufacturing PMI data in France, Germany and the Eurozone.
Recently, the repeated epidemics caused by the delta strain have once again impacted the global supply chain. The normal production and operation of enterprises have been interrupted, which has also dragged down the expansion of manufacturing activities. Previous data showed that the initial value of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the US and Eurozone manufacturing industries both fell in August. It can be seen that the global spread of Delta strains has brought uncertainty to economic recovery. With the supply bottleneck caused by the epidemic, the European and American manufacturing industries are facing new challenges.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the expansion of economic activity in the Eurozone slowed down significantly in August. Survey data shows that the overall economic expansion of the Eurozone in the third quarter is still the highest level in 21 years. However, affected by employment, rising wages and supply shortages, corporate cost pressures continue to grow, and there are signs that manufacturing in the Eurozone will further slow down. In comparison, the decline in the growth of the manufacturing industry is more obvious than that of the service industry. The manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low in August, while the service PMI fell to a two-month low.
Currently, affected by the Delta strain, the European epidemic continues to ferment. In the past week, the German epidemic has shown its worst rebound since July. The epidemic has caused difficulties in the German export industry chain. For example, the shortage of chips has caused the German auto industry to encounter supply chain bottlenecks. The German think tank Iver Institute for Economic Research (IFO) believes that under the influence of supply chain bottlenecks, German industrial production is expected to continue to shrink. Therefore, the German economy may continue to remain weak in the third quarter. The Kiel Institute of World Economics in Germany predicts that in 2021, supply chain bottlenecks may bring about 25 billion euros to the German economy in losses. The predicament of Germany also reflects the overall problem of the imbalance between supply and demand in European manufacturing.
However, despite the overall decline in Eurozone economic data in August, it is still expected to achieve steady growth in the third quarter of this year. At present, European countries are formulating plans to take measures such as vaccinating booster shots, wearing masks, frequent testing and limited social distancing, in order to control the epidemic before the arrival of winter. The Netherlands International Group expects that although the delta strain continues to spread, the tension in the supply chain will continue to pose risks to the European economy, and the European economy will continue to grow in the third quarter of this year.
In the UK, investors pay attention to the UK manufacturing PMI. GMT+8 at 19 o’clock, focusing on the UK central bank’s decision on interest rates in September. The money market is betting that the Bank of England will increase its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.1% to 0.5% next year, possibly in two installments. Traders now expect that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points by December 2022 on the basis of the 15 basis points that have been digested in May.
Before the change in market expectations, the Bank of England adjusted its forward guidance last month and is expected to carry out some "moderate tightening." President Andrew Bailey said in a recent speech that, like some other officials, he also believes that the minimum standard for tightening monetary policy has been reached. Although the Bank of England has traditionally adjusted its benchmark interest rate in multiples of 25 basis points, the last time it cut interest rates in March 2020 was 15 basis points. If officials want to raise interest rates, then strategists believe that the first step may be to return to 0.25%.
During the New York session, investors still focus on the US manufacturing PMI data. Compared with Europe, the current challenges facing the United States are even more severe. The U.S. has become the "epicenter" of the global epidemic, which has also made U.S. commercial activities slower than before. Data show that the United States' August Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 55.4 from 59.9 last month, the lowest value in the past 8 months. Among them, the manufacturing PMI in August fell from 63.4 in the previous month to 61.2, the lowest level in the past four months, and the factory output index fell from 59.7 in the previous month to 56.3, the lowest level in the past five months.
Although the PMI data of the United States in August is still above the prosperity and decline line, the significant decrease in the value indicates that the driving force of economic growth has declined, and the speed of recovery has begun to slow down. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, the initial value of US non-agricultural productivity in the second quarter was converted into an annual rate of 2.3%, which was significantly lower than the expected 3.5% and 4.5% in the first quarter. This indicator is used to measure the hourly output of each worker. . In addition, the current overall working hours are still 2.8% lower than before the epidemic. This shows that the recovery of economic activity has not been accompanied by an influx of labor.
20:45 Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester delivered a speech on the prospects of the US economy.
21:00 Silvana Tenreyro, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, delivered a speech at the International Conference on National Public Finance.
22:00 Fed Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.
22:05 In 2022, FOMC vote committee and Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman George gave a speech on the prospects of the US economy.
In the Asian session on September 24, investors who traded the New Zealand dollar paid a little attention to New Zealand's August trade account. Then focus on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors can pay a little attention to the German IFO business climate index.
During the New York session, investors pay a little attention to the leading indicators of the United States, and then focus on the trends of the US stocks and US debt markets, so as to grasp the direction of changes in market sentiment.
Of course, the most important thing for investors is to pay attention to the speeches of a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Clarida. In particular, the views of Vice Chairman Clarida are critical for judging the direction of the Fed’s policy, because This is Clarida's first statement after the Fed's decision on Wednesday.
After that, investors who trade crude oil pay a little attention to the US drilling platform data, which will also have some impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
September 25th-September 26th Saturday and Sunday No major data and events
In addition to the central bank’s decision, investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the situation in the Middle East, the US government’s debt ceiling, the US government’s tax hikes and economic stimulus plans, etc. These fundamental news and data will bring the market next week. Come greater volatility. Next, let us count the timing of the major events next week.
List of important economic data
Keywords on Monday, September 20: opening situation, Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival closed, US real estate index
time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
07:01 | U.K | September Rightmove average asking price index monthly rate (%) | -0.3 | |
14:00 | Germany | August PPI annual rate (%) | 10.4 | |
22:00 | America | September NAHB Real Estate Market Index | 75 | 73 |
The Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival has a compensatory holiday and the market is closed for one day.
Japan Respect for the Aged Day, the market is closed for one day.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
To be determined Canada holds the 2021 federal election.
18:35 European Central Bank Executive Committee member Schnabel delivered a speech.
In the Asian session on September 20, investors first paid attention to the opening trends of various varieties. News on the weekend may cause gaps in the opening of various varieties in the morning and aggravate market price volatility. Investors pay special attention to it. The Chinese market is closed due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and it is expected that the volatility in the Asian session will be very limited.
During European time, investors can pay a little attention to Germany's August PPI. Due to scarce economic data, the market trend may also be relatively light.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US housing market index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to find the direction of market sentiment changes.
Key words on Tuesday, September 21: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Housing Market Data
time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
07:30 | Australia | ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending September 19 | 103.1 | |
20:30 | America | Monthly rate of construction permit in August (%) | 2.6 | |
20:30 | America | Annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in August (%) | -7 | |
20:30 | America | Current account in the second quarter (100 million U.S. dollars) | -1957 | |
22:00 | new Zealand | Change rate of global dairy product auction price index for the week ending September 21 (%) | 4 | |
04:30 | America | Changes in API crude oil inventories in the week as of September 17 (10,000 barrels) |
09:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
During the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, the market will be closed for one day.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
To be determined The OECD will update its economic forecasts for major economies in its mid-term outlook report.
15:05 European Central Bank Deputy Governor Gindos delivered a speech.
In the Asian session on September 21, investors trading in Australian dollars paid a little attention to Australia's consumer confidence index, and then focused on the minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. The Chinese market and the Korean market will be closed due to the Mid-Autumn Festival.
In its September resolution, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained both the benchmark interest rate and the 3-year Treasury bond yield target at 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia emphasized that conditions for raising interest rates will not appear until 2024 at the earliest. According to the key content of the interest rate decision, the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the size of debt purchases from A$5 billion per week to A$4 billion per week, and continue at least until mid-February 2022. This reflects the delay in economic recovery and the outbreak of delta strains. Uncertainty that comes. The Reserve Bank of Australia also mentioned that the new crown epidemic interrupted Australia's economic recovery, but the regression of economic expansion is only temporary. Continue to review the bond purchase plan and assess the level of bond purchases in mid-February next year. The Reserve Bank of Australia also stated that it expects that the gross domestic product in the September quarter will fall sharply, and the unemployment rate will rise in the coming months. It is expected that the new crown Delta variant strain will delay the economic recovery, rather than undermine the economic recovery. The core assumption is to achieve economic growth in the December quarter.
During the European time, economic data is scarce, and the market trend is more in line with the direction given by the technology.
During the New York session, investors pay attention to the two real estate market data in the United States, housing starts and building permits.
Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. real estate market has been extremely hot and has aroused market attention. Data show that in July, US house prices rose by 18% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase in the 45 years since the index was compiled. The current US housing prices have increased by more than 41% since the peak of the real estate bubble era in 2006. At the same time, housing rental prices have also been rising. With the surge in market demand, in the second quarter of this year, the occupancy rate of U.S. rental apartments reached 96.9% in July, pushing the rent of newly signed leases to rise by 17%, a record high. The rise in US real estate prices is inseparable from the Fed's financial policy support and the demand brought by the wave of "millennials" buying houses. But as the Fed’s policy turning point approaches, risks in the US real estate market are also rising.
From a financial perspective, experts said that since real estate is a typical highly leveraged sector (residential mortgage loans on the demand side and housing development loans on the supply side), the real estate market is extremely sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, excess liquidity and low interest rates. Will greatly increase the speculative demand for real estate. Since the outbreak of the epidemic last year, the Fed has successively adopted interest rate cuts and large-scale quantitative easing (QE) to cope with the economic downturn. Under this pattern, the long-term interest rate has declined significantly, and the fixed interest rate of 30-year mortgage loans has also continued to drop, which is still at a historically low level, which in turn promotes residents' willingness to borrow to buy houses.
Wall Street experts bluntly said: The Fed has so distorted the trend of long-term assets. We have seen that long-term assets have a very natural response to monetary stimulus, and then a long-term upward trend has formed. Anyone who holds these risky assets is very firmly convinced that long-term interest rates will not rise. But when it comes to when the bubble will burst, no one knows the answer.
In addition, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the evening API crude oil inventory data.
Wednesday, September 22 Keywords: Bank of Japan resolution, EIA crude oil inventories, Fed September resolution
time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
09:30 | China | As of the Friday of September 22nd, the quoted interest rate of the annual loan market (%) | 4.65 | |
10:00 | Japan | September central bank policy balance interest rate (%) | -0.1 | |
22:00 | Eurozone | September Consumer Confidence Index | -5.3 | |
22:00 | America | Annualized total sales of existing homes in August (10,000 households) | 599 | |
22:30 | America | Changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending September 17 (10,000 barrels) | ||
02:00 | America | September Fed funds rate target ceiling (%) | 0.25 | |
02:00 | America | September Fed funds rate target lower limit (%) | 0 |
The market is closed for one day on the day following the Mid-Autumn Festival in Hong Kong, China.
Korean Mid-Autumn Festival, the market is closed for one day.
Around 11:00, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision.
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a press conference.
02:00 The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision and publishes a summary of economic forecasts.
02:30 Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.
During the Asian session on September 22, the Hong Kong market was closed. Investors first pay attention to China's five-year loan interest rate quotes, and then GMT+8 around 11 o'clock, focusing on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
The Bank of Japan said that if necessary, the Bank of Japan will further relax its policies and maintain short- and long-term interest rates at current or lower levels. Data show that as of June this year, Japan’s total holdings of US debt reached US$1.277 trillion, making it the largest creditor of US overseas bonds.
However, after implementing many years of shock and deterrent stimulus policies, the Bank of Japan is quietly retracting the aggressive policy boldly launched by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and is the first to adopt controversial new measures to blur the line between the central bank’s business and politics. Insiders said that the Bank of Japan’s move to lift this complex set of policies was promoted by Deputy Governor Masaka Amamiya.
The complicated policy framework of Kuroda Haruhiko is the product of years of unsuccessful attempts by the central bank to boost stagnant consumer prices. As the economy is struggling with the epidemic, Masaka Amamiya and Councilor Shinichi Uchida have already worked behind the scenes to make Kuroda's policy framework easier to control and ultimately return Japan to a more normal interest rate environment. The Bank of Japan has fewer and fewer monetary policy options, which means that these two ambitious technocrats are turning to push the central bank to implement plans similar to industrial policy.
During European time, economic data is relatively scarce, and the market is expected to be relatively thin. Investors are adjusting their positions for the evening Fed decision.
During the New York session, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the US EIA crude oil inventory data. In the latest monthly report of the IEA last week, it was announced that global oil demand would increase by 5.2 million barrels per day in 2021, maintaining the forecast that global oil demand would increase by 3.2 million barrels per day in 2022, and stated that global oil demand would increase to the end of the year. The IEA also stated that as hurricane "Ada" offset OPEC's production increase plan, the world must wait for more oil supplies. If OPEC+ continues to reduce the rate of production cuts, the market will begin to balance in October.
Citigroup predicts that under the influence of "Ada", the US crude oil production cut in September may reach 30 million barrels, and the October production cut will also reach 5 million barrels. As "Ada" led to a decline in US crude oil production, demand recovery in East Asia is taking place, which may support crude oil prices in the fourth quarter.
In the evening, at 2 o'clock in GMT+8, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution. This resolution will also announce economic expectations and dot plots. Whether the Fed will slow down its monthly bond purchases at this meeting has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that before the end of this year, it may begin to reduce the scale of bond purchases. Earlier speeches by many Fed officials showed that the delta strain did not shake their minds: they supported Chairman Powell’s message at the annual meeting of global central banks on August 27 that the Fed may start to reduce its weight later this year, despite the fact that Monthly non-agricultural employment growth has slowed due to the impact of the epidemic.
Analysts pointed out that disappointment with the US non-farm payrolls report in August will almost certainly prompt Fed policymakers to postpone consideration of reducing the scale of asset purchases at the September 21-22 meeting. Last month's non-agricultural employment data was far worse than expected, and employment growth was the lowest in seven months, indicating that Fed officials need to see more growth before they can start slowing down bond purchases.
Fed officials hope to see "significant growth" in employment and inflation, and the current slowdown in hiring due to the mutant virus may mean that the Fed will not start to reduce its debt until November or December; a former Fed economist said , The August non-agricultural report made debt reduction in September impossible, and the reduction in debt later this year is still the basic situation. The data in the next few months will be important for determining when to announce the reduction and the pace of the reduction.
According to people familiar with the matter, at the FOMC meeting in July, most Fed officials believed that it might be appropriate to start reducing the $120 billion monthly bond purchase plan before the end of the year. Some regional Fed presidents have been urging action as early as September. Others believe that we should be patient to assess the economic impact of mutant viruses.
Keywords for Thursday, September 23: German and French manufacturing PMI, UK service industry PMI, Bank of England decision, US unemployment benefits and manufacturing PMI, Canadian retail sales
time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
15:15 | France | September Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value | 57.5 | |
15:30 | Germany | September Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value | 62.6 | |
15:30 | Switzerland | Central bank demand deposit interest rate in September (%) | -0.75 | |
16:00 | Eurozone | September Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value | 61.4 | |
16:30 | U.K | September Markit Service Industry PMI Initial Value | 55 | |
16:30 | U.K | September Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value | 60.3 | |
19:00 | U.K | September central bank benchmark interest rate (%) | 0.1 | |
20:30 | America | As of September 18, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week (10,000) | ||
20:30 | Canada | Monthly retail sales rate in July (%) | 4.2 | |
21:45 | America | September Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value | 61.1 | |
22:00 | America | Monthly rate of leading indicators of the Advisory Chamber of Commerce in August (%) | 0.9 |
The Japanese autumn equinox is closed for one day.
15:30 The Swiss National Bank announces its interest rate decision.
16:00 The European Central Bank announces its economic bulletin.
19:00 The Bank of England announced the interest rate decision and announced the minutes of the meeting.
00:00 The Federal Reserve releases the US quarterly financial report.
During the Asian session on September 23, Japan's autumn equinox was closed for one day, and investors focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors paid close attention to the performance of manufacturing PMI data in France, Germany and the Eurozone.
Recently, the repeated epidemics caused by the delta strain have once again impacted the global supply chain. The normal production and operation of enterprises have been interrupted, which has also dragged down the expansion of manufacturing activities. Previous data showed that the initial value of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the US and Eurozone manufacturing industries both fell in August. It can be seen that the global spread of Delta strains has brought uncertainty to economic recovery. With the supply bottleneck caused by the epidemic, the European and American manufacturing industries are facing new challenges.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the expansion of economic activity in the Eurozone slowed down significantly in August. Survey data shows that the overall economic expansion of the Eurozone in the third quarter is still the highest level in 21 years. However, affected by employment, rising wages and supply shortages, corporate cost pressures continue to grow, and there are signs that manufacturing in the Eurozone will further slow down. In comparison, the decline in the growth of the manufacturing industry is more obvious than that of the service industry. The manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low in August, while the service PMI fell to a two-month low.
Currently, affected by the Delta strain, the European epidemic continues to ferment. In the past week, the German epidemic has shown its worst rebound since July. The epidemic has caused difficulties in the German export industry chain. For example, the shortage of chips has caused the German auto industry to encounter supply chain bottlenecks. The German think tank Iver Institute for Economic Research (IFO) believes that under the influence of supply chain bottlenecks, German industrial production is expected to continue to shrink. Therefore, the German economy may continue to remain weak in the third quarter. The Kiel Institute of World Economics in Germany predicts that in 2021, supply chain bottlenecks may bring about 25 billion euros to the German economy in losses. The predicament of Germany also reflects the overall problem of the imbalance between supply and demand in European manufacturing.
However, despite the overall decline in Eurozone economic data in August, it is still expected to achieve steady growth in the third quarter of this year. At present, European countries are formulating plans to take measures such as vaccinating booster shots, wearing masks, frequent testing and limited social distancing, in order to control the epidemic before the arrival of winter. The Netherlands International Group expects that although the delta strain continues to spread, the tension in the supply chain will continue to pose risks to the European economy, and the European economy will continue to grow in the third quarter of this year.
In the UK, investors pay attention to the UK manufacturing PMI. GMT+8 at 19 o’clock, focusing on the UK central bank’s decision on interest rates in September. The money market is betting that the Bank of England will increase its benchmark interest rate from the current 0.1% to 0.5% next year, possibly in two installments. Traders now expect that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points by December 2022 on the basis of the 15 basis points that have been digested in May.
Before the change in market expectations, the Bank of England adjusted its forward guidance last month and is expected to carry out some "moderate tightening." President Andrew Bailey said in a recent speech that, like some other officials, he also believes that the minimum standard for tightening monetary policy has been reached. Although the Bank of England has traditionally adjusted its benchmark interest rate in multiples of 25 basis points, the last time it cut interest rates in March 2020 was 15 basis points. If officials want to raise interest rates, then strategists believe that the first step may be to return to 0.25%.
During the New York session, investors still focus on the US manufacturing PMI data. Compared with Europe, the current challenges facing the United States are even more severe. The U.S. has become the "epicenter" of the global epidemic, which has also made U.S. commercial activities slower than before. Data show that the United States' August Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 55.4 from 59.9 last month, the lowest value in the past 8 months. Among them, the manufacturing PMI in August fell from 63.4 in the previous month to 61.2, the lowest level in the past four months, and the factory output index fell from 59.7 in the previous month to 56.3, the lowest level in the past five months.
Although the PMI data of the United States in August is still above the prosperity and decline line, the significant decrease in the value indicates that the driving force of economic growth has declined, and the speed of recovery has begun to slow down. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, the initial value of US non-agricultural productivity in the second quarter was converted into an annual rate of 2.3%, which was significantly lower than the expected 3.5% and 4.5% in the first quarter. This indicator is used to measure the hourly output of each worker. . In addition, the current overall working hours are still 2.8% lower than before the epidemic. This shows that the recovery of economic activity has not been accompanied by an influx of labor.
Key words on Friday, September 24: German IFO business climate index, US leading indicator, Fed official speech
time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value | |
06:45 | new Zealand | August Trade Account ($100 million) | -4.02 | ||
07:01 | U.K | September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index | -8 | ||
07:30 | Japan | National CPI annual rate in August (%) | -0.3 | ||
16:00 | Germany | September IFO Business Climate Index | 99.4 | ||
22:00 | America | The total annualized sales of new homes after the August seasonal adjustment (10,000 households) | 70.8 | ||
22:30 | America | ECRI leading indicators for the week ending September 17 | |||
01:00 | America | The total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending September 24 (mouth) |
20:45 Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester delivered a speech on the prospects of the US economy.
21:00 Silvana Tenreyro, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, delivered a speech at the International Conference on National Public Finance.
22:00 Fed Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches.
22:05 In 2022, FOMC vote committee and Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman George gave a speech on the prospects of the US economy.
In the Asian session on September 24, investors who traded the New Zealand dollar paid a little attention to New Zealand's August trade account. Then focus on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors can pay a little attention to the German IFO business climate index.
During the New York session, investors pay a little attention to the leading indicators of the United States, and then focus on the trends of the US stocks and US debt markets, so as to grasp the direction of changes in market sentiment.
Of course, the most important thing for investors is to pay attention to the speeches of a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Clarida. In particular, the views of Vice Chairman Clarida are critical for judging the direction of the Fed’s policy, because This is Clarida's first statement after the Fed's decision on Wednesday.
After that, investors who trade crude oil pay a little attention to the US drilling platform data, which will also have some impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
September 25th-September 26th Saturday and Sunday No major data and events
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading