English
Market News The impact of major events and indicators next week (November 1st to November 7th)
The impact of major events and indicators next week (November 1st to November 7th)
The market will usher in the central bank decision week next week, and the central banks of the three major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Labor will also announce the non-agricultural employment report for October. These blockbuster events gather, and it can be said that the market is bound to be turbulent in the next week. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions. It is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as those of the Federal Reserve.
2021-10-30
7473
The market will usher in the central bank decision week next week, and the central banks of the three major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Labor will also announce the non-agricultural employment report for October. These blockbuster events gather, and it can be said that the market is bound to be turbulent in the next week. In addition to the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions. It is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as the Fed.
In addition to the central bank’s decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the Iran nuclear talks, the U.S. supply chain crisis, and the U.S. government’s tax hike and economic stimulus plan. These fundamental news and data will be released next week. The market brings greater volatility. Next, let us count the timing of the major events next week.
List of important economic data
All Saints' Day in France, the market is closed for one day.
Glasgow, UK, US President Biden will attend the 26th UN Climate Conference to be held from November 1st to 2nd.
In the Asian session on November 1, investors first paid attention to the opening trends of various varieties. News on the weekend may cause gaps in the opening of various varieties in the morning and aggravate market price volatility. Investors pay special attention to it. Investors trading the Australian dollar should pay attention to a series of important data released by Australia, which will guide the short-term direction of the Australian dollar.
Next, investors will focus on China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The market expects this data to perform well.
In the third quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year. Under the leadership of the party, China's economy has continued to maintain the remarkable characteristic of "stability." Although the minimum wage standards in various regions have risen to a certain extent and labor costs have also risen, the suspension of production and work caused by the epidemic can be avoided to the greatest extent. In the next two months, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Day, four important Western holidays and related promotional activities are good opportunities for European and American companies to sell. Holiday marketing, it may really be missed. I don’t know how many billion dollars in sales. So even if labor costs increase and the intermediate links are a little more complicated, entrepreneurs must rush to complete them in Chinese factories before these times. All layouts of merchandise manufacturing.
The world's relocation of factories to China also allows China to once again play the role of "firefighting captain". Today, the country with the most stringent epidemic prevention in the world is China. Although the migration of factories and production lines is difficult, European and American companies are more willing to enter China at this time than ever before. There may be two important reasons for this: First, it highly recognizes China's contribution to epidemic prevention and control, and has great confidence in China; second, it shows that apart from China, no country's factories and production lines are irreplaceable.
During the European time, the French financial market is closed. Investors mainly focus on the final value of manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the final value data of the British manufacturing industry. However, the impact of these data on the market is expected to be relatively limited.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US ISM manufacturing PMI data.
The U.S. manufacturing output announced last month unexpectedly fell the most since February, and it had fallen for two consecutive months. When the data came out, it immediately triggered market concerns about the U.S. economy. Supply bottlenecks continue to put greater pressure on manufacturing production and are hindering economic growth. Therefore, the market wants to look for signs of the extent to which the US economy will slow down from the following data.
The manufacturing industry accounts for 12% of the US economy. In the first half of this year, due to strong demand for goods, the inventories of US companies have fallen. At present, the manufacturing industry is still supported by the urgent need to replenish inventories. However, the interruption of one link of the supply chain will have a knock-on effect on other links, from manufacturers to suppliers and distributors, and ultimately affect consumers and economic growth.
In the end, the shortage of the supply chain has a wide-ranging impact on various industries in the United States. Whether it is the electronics and automotive industries that are hindered by the shortage of semiconductor chips, or the food, medicine, and household products that are most daily related to residents, they are all affected. The shortage of labor and construction materials has also hindered the real estate market, putting upward pressure on housing prices. Some companies issued warnings in their fourth-quarter performance guidance that supply chain disruptions could lead to higher costs and lower profits.
To be determined Bank of Japan announces meeting minutes
11:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.
During the Asian session on November 2, investors who traded New Zealand dollars paid attention to New Zealand's construction permit data. In addition, investors should pay attention to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s meeting.
In its resolution last week, the Bank of Japan continued to stand still and lowered its growth and inflation forecasts; indicating that the Bank of Japan has no intention to follow the route of other major central banks preparing to withdraw from policies during the epidemic crisis. Although the upward trend in raw material prices has caused Japan's wholesale price increase to hit a 13-year high, consumer price increases are still stubbornly staying at near zero. Due to weak domestic spending, it is difficult for companies to pass on cost increases to consumers. Due to weak inflation and the still fragile economic recovery in Japan, the Bank of Japan has sufficient reasons to maintain its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target to remain near zero.
Hiroshi Ugai, chief Japanese economic analyst at JPMorgan Chase Securities, said that on a global scale, many central banks are turning to raise interest rates to respond to rising inflation. But it may be difficult for the Bank of Japan to become hawkish, partly because cost-driven inflation alone will not be able to raise the inflation rate to its 2% target.
At 11:20 GMT+8, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision.
RBA Chairman Lowe has repeatedly emphasized that it will be difficult to meet the conditions for raising interest rates before 2024, and the market generally expects that the RBA will start the interest rate hike cycle as early as August 2022, and raise interest rates no less than once in the same year. As a result, the market has raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will revise its forward-looking guidance. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s yield curve control target, the yield to maturity of Treasury bonds in April 2024 should be 0.10% instead of the current 0.15%, which even exceeded 0.17% in the past week.
Faced with such a situation, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to take action to restore its control of the yield curve. Royal Bank of Canada analyst Su-Lin Ong said: This is a clear signal that the Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to defend its yield target, and more importantly, it still believes that interest rates are unlikely to fall within the target bond by 2024. Raise before the end of the year. This action by the Fed is very necessary when the market is tightly pricing that the Fed will raise interest rates several times in the third quarter of next year.
The agency predicts that with the restart of economic activity after Australia is unblocked, the Reserve Bank of Australia will not significantly adjust the current monetary policy path, and at the same time will be as optimistic about the economy as possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia expects that the economy will return to its pre-epidemic level by the end of 2022, and will maintain a loose monetary policy during this period. Considering the Fed's reduction in debt purchases and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the phased rebound of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to be suspended.
During the European time, economic data is scarce, and the market trend is more in line with the direction given by the technology.
During the New York session, investors pay attention to New Zealand's dairy product auction price index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to control the direction of changes in market sentiment. In addition, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the evening API crude oil inventory data.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a financial stability report.
Japan Cultural Festival, the market is closed for one day.
02:00 The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
02:30 Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.
In the Asian session on November 3, investors who traded New Zealand dollars paid attention to the unemployment rate data in the third quarter of New Zealand. In Japan, the market is closed for one day due to cultural holidays. In Australia, pay more attention to the construction permit data.
Investors still focus on China's Caixin service industry PMI data.
Some reports pointed out that the current domestic service industry is recovering steadily, and the modern service industry is growing well. Statistics show that in the first three quarters, the domestic tertiary industry continued to grow. In terms of industries, in the first three quarters, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology services, transportation, storage and postal industries increased by 19.3% and 15.3% year-on-year respectively, and the two-year average growth rate was 17.6% and 6.2% respectively. In September, the national service industry production index increased by 5.2% year-on-year, 0.4% faster than the previous month; the two-year average increased by 5.3%, an acceleration of 0.9%. From January to August, the operating income of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 25.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 10.7%.
In September, the service industry business activity index was 52.4%, 7.2 percentage points higher than last month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity indexes of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental governance that were more severely impacted by the epidemic flood situation last month all rebounded sharply above the threshold. In terms of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index was 58.9%, 1.6 percentage points higher than last month. Among them, railway transportation, air transportation, postal express and other industries were all higher than 65.0%.
During the European period, investors mainly focus on the final value of service industry PMI in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, while investors who trade the pound pay attention to the final value of the service industry PMI in the United Kingdom, but these final value data are expected to have a relatively limited impact on the market.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US small non-agricultural ADP employment data, which is an important guide for the performance of non-agricultural data this Friday. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders and other data, which will bring fluctuations to the short-term market trend. However, before the Fed's decision in the evening, the market is expected to remain cautious.
Investors trading crude oil pay attention to the US EIA crude oil inventory data. With the gradual approach of winter, the demand for crude oil is gradually increasing, but OPEC's supply is very limited, and US crude oil inventories are also falling. These factors may continue to give further support to oil prices.
In the evening, at 2 o'clock in GMT+8, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution. This resolution will not announce economic expectations and dot plots, but Powell will hold a press conference. The Fed’s announcement of debt reduction at this meeting and Powell’s description of interest rate hikes aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.
Since the United States released more than US$6 trillion in water, local people's prices have become higher and higher. However, the Fed has been advocating the "temporary theory of inflation" to comfort the public that prices will soon fall. However, currently affected by supply chain bottlenecks and increasingly strong consumer demand, inflation is not only showing no downward trend, but on the contrary is still rising significantly. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently warned that the inflation trend in the United States is far higher than the Fed’s 2% average inflation target and will continue for quite some time. This is tantamount to smashing the face of the "temporary inflation theory" of the current Fed.
As the inflation problem in the United States heats up sharply, Wall Street analysts believe that the Fed may not be able to hold it, or will accelerate the pace of tightening. The market expects that after the interest rate meeting next week, the Fed may announce a prelude to raising interest rates. The Fed’s dot plot shows the interest rate hike forecasts of policymakers, indicating that half of the members expect to raise interest rates by the end of 2022, and the other half predict that they will begin to raise interest rates by the end of 2023.
Earlier, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had signaled that it would start raising interest rates in 2023, and officially announced the start of debt reduction as soon as the November meeting. Some Fed officials said that if inflation remains high, they will support an early interest rate hike. Fed Governor Waller recently stated that if inflation indicators continue to remain high this year, the Fed may need to introduce stronger measures to deal with inflation, rather than just gradually reducing debt purchases.
The 22nd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting was held.
20:00 The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and announces the minutes of the meeting.
20:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde and Executive Committee Member Schnabel delivered speeches.
In the Asian session on November 4, investors can pay a little attention to the Australian goods and services trade account data.
During the European period, economic data is relatively scarce. Investors first pay attention to the news of the OPEC ministerial meeting. Some decisions made during the meeting may have a greater impact on oil prices. Although the global demand for crude oil continues to increase as the economy continues to recover and winter is approaching, OPEC oil-producing countries have no intention to increase production. This has led to tighter supply in the global crude oil market and strong support for oil prices. At present, the market generally expects that OPEC will still not increase production beyond expectations at the meeting.
Investors then focused on the Bank of England’s November interest rate decision. Due to the supply chain break, the domestic inflation in the UK has continued to rise, which has led to the market's expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to curb inflation.
However, some analysts pointed out that although the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has repeatedly made hawkish remarks in recent weeks, he is not expected to vote for a rate hike next week. Although the market has almost completely digested the central bank’s expectation of 15 basis points to raise interest rates on November 4, analysis predicts that the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee will maintain interest rates unchanged with 7-2 votes. HSBC senior economist Liz Martins wrote in a report on Tuesday that only Michael Saunders and Dave Ramsden, who advocated an early termination of the bond purchase program in September, are expected to vote in favor of raising interest rates.
In the past few weeks, Bailey has repeatedly warned that the Bank of England will have to take action to curb inflation. His speech made the bets on a rate hike in November rise sharply, which was at least six months earlier than most economists had previously expected. At a time when financial markets generally expect the Bank of England to take action, if the Bank of England does not move, it is likely to criticize Bailey and other committee members for not trying to dispel the growing interest rate hike expectations in recent weeks. In the past, the credibility of the Bank of England has been damaged by similar incidents. Under former governor Mark Carney, the central bank’s policy guidelines have been questioned, and lawmakers have accused him of misleading the market regarding interest rates.
During the New York session, investors still focus on two key US data, the US trade account and the number of unemployment claims in the US that week. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the US stocks and US bond markets to grasp the direction of changes in market sentiment.
08:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a monetary policy statement.
Shanghai, China, the 4th CIIE (November 5-10) was held in Shanghai.
In the Asian session on November 5, investors paid attention to the monetary policy statement issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and then focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors focused on the two data of Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial output and Eurozone retail sales. However, before the release of the US non-agricultural employment report, the market is expected to be cautious.
During the New York session, investors ushered in a feast of market volatility this week, and the US Department of Labor will release its monthly non-agricultural employment report. At present, the market is paying extensive attention to the US labor market. In view of the irreversible changes brought about by the epidemic, the US labor market has been recovering slowly, which has become a criticism of economic growth.
Since the third quarter, the US economy is facing a slowdown. As of October, major overseas financial institutions generally lowered their US economic growth expectations in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Although major Fed officials represented by Powell have repeatedly emphasized the "temporary theory" of US inflation, persistently high inflation and a slowing economy are putting the United States at risk of entering a "stagflation" cycle.
The current supply and demand dilemma that the US labor market is facing, and the "salary-price" spiral that may be caused by the tight labor supply situation, entering September, the shortage of the US job market has not actually been improved, and the US job market has recovered. The road is still "a long way to go." The number of newly-added non-agricultural employment in September was only 194,000, which is far below market expectations. Currently, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States is higher than the level before the epidemic (February 2020), and there is still a gap of 4.97 million. In the past two months, the United States Progress in employment restoration has been slow.
Looking at the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate in the US job market continued to drop to 4.8% in September. The analysis believes that the decline in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean an improvement in the labor market, but may also be due to the labor's withdrawal from the labor market because of the temporary unwillingness to find a job. The decline in the unemployment rate in September was more due to the decline in the labor participation rate.
In addition to the non-agricultural employment report in the United States, Canada will also announce the latest employment report. Investors who trade Canadian dollars should pay close attention.
With the gradual lifting of epidemic prevention measures and the restart of economic activities, the Canadian job market has continued to improve, and the employment rate of immigrants has continued to increase recently, reaching 71% last month. Although the total number of new immigrants did not increase during the epidemic, the number of new immigrants working in certain industries has increased. In other words, in professional, technological services, as well as industries such as finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing, sustained employment growth has been achieved throughout the epidemic.
Some reports pointed out that as concerns about high inflation and supply chain issues intensify, the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates from April next year. According to the report, according to the third quarter business outlook survey released by the Bank of Canada on Monday, nearly half of Canadian companies (45%) expect inflation to exceed 3% next year. Another 42% of companies expect an inflation rate of 2-3%, and only 10% of companies expect an inflation rate of between 1% and 2%. Since inflation expectations are the main driver of inflation, the market has noticed this and it is now expected that the Bank of Canada will be forced to raise interest rates before the second half of 2022.
After that, investors who trade crude oil pay a little attention to the US drilling platform data, which will also have some impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
November 6th-November 7th Saturday and Sunday No significant data and events
In addition to the central bank’s decision, investors should also pay close attention to the latest developments in the global fight against the epidemic, the Iran nuclear talks, the U.S. supply chain crisis, and the U.S. government’s tax hike and economic stimulus plan. These fundamental news and data will be released next week. The market brings greater volatility. Next, let us count the timing of the major events next week.
List of important economic data
Monday, November 1st Keywords: opening situation, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
| time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
| 08:00 | Australia | October TD-MI inflation index monthly rate (%) | 0.3 | |
| 08:30 | Australia | The monthly rate of ANZ's total recruitment advertisements after the seasonal adjustment in October (%) | -2.8 | |
| 08:30 | Australia | Monthly rate of investor loan value in September (%) | 1.5 | |
| 09:45 | China | October Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 50 | |
| 16:50 | France | October Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value | ||
| 16:55 | Germany | October Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value | ||
| 17:00 | Eurozone | October Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value | ||
| 17:30 | U.K | October Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value | ||
| 22:00 | America | October ISM Manufacturing PMI | 61.1 | |
| 22:45 | America | October Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value |
All Saints' Day in France, the market is closed for one day.
Glasgow, UK, US President Biden will attend the 26th UN Climate Conference to be held from November 1st to 2nd.
In the Asian session on November 1, investors first paid attention to the opening trends of various varieties. News on the weekend may cause gaps in the opening of various varieties in the morning and aggravate market price volatility. Investors pay special attention to it. Investors trading the Australian dollar should pay attention to a series of important data released by Australia, which will guide the short-term direction of the Australian dollar.
Next, investors will focus on China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The market expects this data to perform well.
In the third quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year. Under the leadership of the party, China's economy has continued to maintain the remarkable characteristic of "stability." Although the minimum wage standards in various regions have risen to a certain extent and labor costs have also risen, the suspension of production and work caused by the epidemic can be avoided to the greatest extent. In the next two months, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Day, four important Western holidays and related promotional activities are good opportunities for European and American companies to sell. Holiday marketing, it may really be missed. I don’t know how many billion dollars in sales. So even if labor costs increase and the intermediate links are a little more complicated, entrepreneurs must rush to complete them in Chinese factories before these times. All layouts of merchandise manufacturing.
The world's relocation of factories to China also allows China to once again play the role of "firefighting captain". Today, the country with the most stringent epidemic prevention in the world is China. Although the migration of factories and production lines is difficult, European and American companies are more willing to enter China at this time than ever before. There may be two important reasons for this: First, it highly recognizes China's contribution to epidemic prevention and control, and has great confidence in China; second, it shows that apart from China, no country's factories and production lines are irreplaceable.
During the European time, the French financial market is closed. Investors mainly focus on the final value of manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the final value data of the British manufacturing industry. However, the impact of these data on the market is expected to be relatively limited.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US ISM manufacturing PMI data.
The U.S. manufacturing output announced last month unexpectedly fell the most since February, and it had fallen for two consecutive months. When the data came out, it immediately triggered market concerns about the U.S. economy. Supply bottlenecks continue to put greater pressure on manufacturing production and are hindering economic growth. Therefore, the market wants to look for signs of the extent to which the US economy will slow down from the following data.
The manufacturing industry accounts for 12% of the US economy. In the first half of this year, due to strong demand for goods, the inventories of US companies have fallen. At present, the manufacturing industry is still supported by the urgent need to replenish inventories. However, the interruption of one link of the supply chain will have a knock-on effect on other links, from manufacturers to suppliers and distributors, and ultimately affect consumers and economic growth.
In the end, the shortage of the supply chain has a wide-ranging impact on various industries in the United States. Whether it is the electronics and automotive industries that are hindered by the shortage of semiconductor chips, or the food, medicine, and household products that are most daily related to residents, they are all affected. The shortage of labor and construction materials has also hindered the real estate market, putting upward pressure on housing prices. Some companies issued warnings in their fourth-quarter performance guidance that supply chain disruptions could lead to higher costs and lower profits.
Keywords on Tuesday, November 2nd: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Bank of Japan minutes
| time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
| 05:45 | new Zealand | Monthly rate of construction permit in September (%) | 3.8 | |
| 11:30 | Australia | November cash rate (%) | 0.1 | |
| 20:30 | Canada | Monthly rate of construction permit in September (%) | -2.1 | |
| 20:55 | America | Annual rate of Red Book commercial retail sales for the week ending October 30 (%) | ||
| 22:00 | new Zealand | The change rate of the global dairy product auction price index in the week as of November 2 (%) | ||
| 05:30 | America | Changes in API crude oil inventories in the week as of October 29 (10,000 barrels) |
To be determined Bank of Japan announces meeting minutes
11:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.
During the Asian session on November 2, investors who traded New Zealand dollars paid attention to New Zealand's construction permit data. In addition, investors should pay attention to the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s meeting.
In its resolution last week, the Bank of Japan continued to stand still and lowered its growth and inflation forecasts; indicating that the Bank of Japan has no intention to follow the route of other major central banks preparing to withdraw from policies during the epidemic crisis. Although the upward trend in raw material prices has caused Japan's wholesale price increase to hit a 13-year high, consumer price increases are still stubbornly staying at near zero. Due to weak domestic spending, it is difficult for companies to pass on cost increases to consumers. Due to weak inflation and the still fragile economic recovery in Japan, the Bank of Japan has sufficient reasons to maintain its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target to remain near zero.
Hiroshi Ugai, chief Japanese economic analyst at JPMorgan Chase Securities, said that on a global scale, many central banks are turning to raise interest rates to respond to rising inflation. But it may be difficult for the Bank of Japan to become hawkish, partly because cost-driven inflation alone will not be able to raise the inflation rate to its 2% target.
At 11:20 GMT+8, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest interest rate decision.
RBA Chairman Lowe has repeatedly emphasized that it will be difficult to meet the conditions for raising interest rates before 2024, and the market generally expects that the RBA will start the interest rate hike cycle as early as August 2022, and raise interest rates no less than once in the same year. As a result, the market has raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will revise its forward-looking guidance. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s yield curve control target, the yield to maturity of Treasury bonds in April 2024 should be 0.10% instead of the current 0.15%, which even exceeded 0.17% in the past week.
Faced with such a situation, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to take action to restore its control of the yield curve. Royal Bank of Canada analyst Su-Lin Ong said: This is a clear signal that the Reserve Bank of Australia is ready to defend its yield target, and more importantly, it still believes that interest rates are unlikely to fall within the target bond by 2024. Raise before the end of the year. This action by the Fed is very necessary when the market is tightly pricing that the Fed will raise interest rates several times in the third quarter of next year.
The agency predicts that with the restart of economic activity after Australia is unblocked, the Reserve Bank of Australia will not significantly adjust the current monetary policy path, and at the same time will be as optimistic about the economy as possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia expects that the economy will return to its pre-epidemic level by the end of 2022, and will maintain a loose monetary policy during this period. Considering the Fed's reduction in debt purchases and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the phased rebound of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to be suspended.
During the European time, economic data is scarce, and the market trend is more in line with the direction given by the technology.
During the New York session, investors pay attention to New Zealand's dairy product auction price index. At the same time, pay attention to the trend of U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds to control the direction of changes in market sentiment. In addition, investors who trade crude oil pay attention to the evening API crude oil inventory data.
Keywords for Wednesday, November 3rd: China Caixin Service Industry PMI, US ADP Employment, US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventory, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
| time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
| 05:45 | new Zealand | Unemployment rate in the third quarter (%) | 4 | |
| 08:30 | Australia | Monthly rate of construction permits after seasonal adjustment in September (%) | 6.8 | |
| 09:45 | China | October Caixin Service PMI | 53.4 | |
| 16:50 | France | October Markit Service Industry PMI Final Value | 56.6 | |
| 16:55 | Germany | October Markit Service Industry PMI Final Value | 52.4 | |
| 17:00 | Eurozone | October Markit comprehensive PMI final value | 54.3 | |
| 17:30 | U.K | October Markit Service Industry PMI Final Value | 58 | |
| 18:00 | Eurozone | September unemployment rate (%) | 7.5 | |
| 20:15 | America | Number of ADP employed in October (ten thousand) | 56.8 | |
| 22:00 | America | Final monthly rate of durable goods orders in September (%) | ||
| 22:00 | America | October ISM non-manufacturing PMI | 61.9 | |
| 22:00 | America | Monthly rate of factory orders in September (%) | 1.2 | |
| 22:30 | America | Changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the week ending October 29 (10,000 barrels) | ||
| 02:00 | America | November Fed funds rate target ceiling (%) | 0.25 | |
| 02:00 | America | November Fed funds rate target lower limit (%) | 0 |
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a financial stability report.
Japan Cultural Festival, the market is closed for one day.
02:00 The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
02:30 Fed Chairman Powell held a press conference.
In the Asian session on November 3, investors who traded New Zealand dollars paid attention to the unemployment rate data in the third quarter of New Zealand. In Japan, the market is closed for one day due to cultural holidays. In Australia, pay more attention to the construction permit data.
Investors still focus on China's Caixin service industry PMI data.
Some reports pointed out that the current domestic service industry is recovering steadily, and the modern service industry is growing well. Statistics show that in the first three quarters, the domestic tertiary industry continued to grow. In terms of industries, in the first three quarters, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology services, transportation, storage and postal industries increased by 19.3% and 15.3% year-on-year respectively, and the two-year average growth rate was 17.6% and 6.2% respectively. In September, the national service industry production index increased by 5.2% year-on-year, 0.4% faster than the previous month; the two-year average increased by 5.3%, an acceleration of 0.9%. From January to August, the operating income of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 25.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 10.7%.
In September, the service industry business activity index was 52.4%, 7.2 percentage points higher than last month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity indexes of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental governance that were more severely impacted by the epidemic flood situation last month all rebounded sharply above the threshold. In terms of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index was 58.9%, 1.6 percentage points higher than last month. Among them, railway transportation, air transportation, postal express and other industries were all higher than 65.0%.
During the European period, investors mainly focus on the final value of service industry PMI in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, while investors who trade the pound pay attention to the final value of the service industry PMI in the United Kingdom, but these final value data are expected to have a relatively limited impact on the market.
During the New York session, investors focused on the US small non-agricultural ADP employment data, which is an important guide for the performance of non-agricultural data this Friday. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders and other data, which will bring fluctuations to the short-term market trend. However, before the Fed's decision in the evening, the market is expected to remain cautious.
Investors trading crude oil pay attention to the US EIA crude oil inventory data. With the gradual approach of winter, the demand for crude oil is gradually increasing, but OPEC's supply is very limited, and US crude oil inventories are also falling. These factors may continue to give further support to oil prices.
In the evening, at 2 o'clock in GMT+8, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution. This resolution will not announce economic expectations and dot plots, but Powell will hold a press conference. The Fed’s announcement of debt reduction at this meeting and Powell’s description of interest rate hikes aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.
Since the United States released more than US$6 trillion in water, local people's prices have become higher and higher. However, the Fed has been advocating the "temporary theory of inflation" to comfort the public that prices will soon fall. However, currently affected by supply chain bottlenecks and increasingly strong consumer demand, inflation is not only showing no downward trend, but on the contrary is still rising significantly. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently warned that the inflation trend in the United States is far higher than the Fed’s 2% average inflation target and will continue for quite some time. This is tantamount to smashing the face of the "temporary inflation theory" of the current Fed.
As the inflation problem in the United States heats up sharply, Wall Street analysts believe that the Fed may not be able to hold it, or will accelerate the pace of tightening. The market expects that after the interest rate meeting next week, the Fed may announce a prelude to raising interest rates. The Fed’s dot plot shows the interest rate hike forecasts of policymakers, indicating that half of the members expect to raise interest rates by the end of 2022, and the other half predict that they will begin to raise interest rates by the end of 2023.
Earlier, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had signaled that it would start raising interest rates in 2023, and officially announced the start of debt reduction as soon as the November meeting. Some Fed officials said that if inflation remains high, they will support an early interest rate hike. Fed Governor Waller recently stated that if inflation indicators continue to remain high this year, the Fed may need to introduce stronger measures to deal with inflation, rather than just gradually reducing debt purchases.
Thursday, November 4th Keywords: OPEC meeting, Bank of England interest rate decision, US trade account, the number of initial unemployment claims in the US last week
| time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
| 08:30 | Australia | September Goods and Services Trade Account ($100 million) | 150.77 | |
| 19:30 | America | Number of layoffs by challenger companies in October (10,000) | 1.79 | |
| 20:00 | U.K | November central bank benchmark interest rate (%) | 0.1 | |
| 20:00 | U.K | The scale of central bank asset purchases in November (100 million pounds) | 8750 | |
| 20:30 | America | September trade account (100 million U.S. dollars) | -733 | |
| 20:30 | Canada | September trade account (100 million Canadian dollars) | 19.39 | |
| 20:30 | America | Number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week of October 30 (10,000) |
The 22nd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting was held.
20:00 The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and announces the minutes of the meeting.
20:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde and Executive Committee Member Schnabel delivered speeches.
In the Asian session on November 4, investors can pay a little attention to the Australian goods and services trade account data.
During the European period, economic data is relatively scarce. Investors first pay attention to the news of the OPEC ministerial meeting. Some decisions made during the meeting may have a greater impact on oil prices. Although the global demand for crude oil continues to increase as the economy continues to recover and winter is approaching, OPEC oil-producing countries have no intention to increase production. This has led to tighter supply in the global crude oil market and strong support for oil prices. At present, the market generally expects that OPEC will still not increase production beyond expectations at the meeting.
Investors then focused on the Bank of England’s November interest rate decision. Due to the supply chain break, the domestic inflation in the UK has continued to rise, which has led to the market's expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates to curb inflation.
However, some analysts pointed out that although the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey has repeatedly made hawkish remarks in recent weeks, he is not expected to vote for a rate hike next week. Although the market has almost completely digested the central bank’s expectation of 15 basis points to raise interest rates on November 4, analysis predicts that the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee will maintain interest rates unchanged with 7-2 votes. HSBC senior economist Liz Martins wrote in a report on Tuesday that only Michael Saunders and Dave Ramsden, who advocated an early termination of the bond purchase program in September, are expected to vote in favor of raising interest rates.
In the past few weeks, Bailey has repeatedly warned that the Bank of England will have to take action to curb inflation. His speech made the bets on a rate hike in November rise sharply, which was at least six months earlier than most economists had previously expected. At a time when financial markets generally expect the Bank of England to take action, if the Bank of England does not move, it is likely to criticize Bailey and other committee members for not trying to dispel the growing interest rate hike expectations in recent weeks. In the past, the credibility of the Bank of England has been damaged by similar incidents. Under former governor Mark Carney, the central bank’s policy guidelines have been questioned, and lawmakers have accused him of misleading the market regarding interest rates.
During the New York session, investors still focus on two key US data, the US trade account and the number of unemployment claims in the US that week. In addition, investors should also pay attention to the US stocks and US bond markets to grasp the direction of changes in market sentiment.
Friday, November 5th Keywords: Eurozone retail sales, Canadian employment report, U.S. non-agricultural employment report
| time | nation | Indicator name | The former value | Predictive value |
| 15:00 | Germany | Monthly rate of industrial output after seasonal adjustment in September (%) | -4 | |
| 18:00 | Eurozone | Monthly retail sales rate in September (%) | 0.3 | |
| 20:30 | Canada | October unemployment rate (%) | 6.9 | |
| 20:30 | Canada | Changes in employment in October (ten thousand) | 15.71 | |
| 20:30 | America | After seasonal adjustment of non-agricultural employment population changes in October (10,000) | 19.4 | |
| 20:30 | America | Annual average hourly wage rate in October (%) | 4.6 | |
| 20:30 | America | October unemployment rate (%) | 4.8 | |
| 22:00 | Canada | PMI after quarterly adjustment of IVEY in October | 70.4 | |
| 01:00 | America | The total number of wells drilled in the United States in the week of November 5 (mouth) |
08:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a monetary policy statement.
Shanghai, China, the 4th CIIE (November 5-10) was held in Shanghai.
In the Asian session on November 5, investors paid attention to the monetary policy statement issued by the Reserve Bank of Australia, and then focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
During the European session, investors focused on the two data of Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial output and Eurozone retail sales. However, before the release of the US non-agricultural employment report, the market is expected to be cautious.
During the New York session, investors ushered in a feast of market volatility this week, and the US Department of Labor will release its monthly non-agricultural employment report. At present, the market is paying extensive attention to the US labor market. In view of the irreversible changes brought about by the epidemic, the US labor market has been recovering slowly, which has become a criticism of economic growth.
Since the third quarter, the US economy is facing a slowdown. As of October, major overseas financial institutions generally lowered their US economic growth expectations in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Although major Fed officials represented by Powell have repeatedly emphasized the "temporary theory" of US inflation, persistently high inflation and a slowing economy are putting the United States at risk of entering a "stagflation" cycle.
The current supply and demand dilemma that the US labor market is facing, and the "salary-price" spiral that may be caused by the tight labor supply situation, entering September, the shortage of the US job market has not actually been improved, and the US job market has recovered. The road is still "a long way to go." The number of newly-added non-agricultural employment in September was only 194,000, which is far below market expectations. Currently, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States is higher than the level before the epidemic (February 2020), and there is still a gap of 4.97 million. In the past two months, the United States Progress in employment restoration has been slow.
Looking at the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate in the US job market continued to drop to 4.8% in September. The analysis believes that the decline in the unemployment rate does not necessarily mean an improvement in the labor market, but may also be due to the labor's withdrawal from the labor market because of the temporary unwillingness to find a job. The decline in the unemployment rate in September was more due to the decline in the labor participation rate.
In addition to the non-agricultural employment report in the United States, Canada will also announce the latest employment report. Investors who trade Canadian dollars should pay close attention.
With the gradual lifting of epidemic prevention measures and the restart of economic activities, the Canadian job market has continued to improve, and the employment rate of immigrants has continued to increase recently, reaching 71% last month. Although the total number of new immigrants did not increase during the epidemic, the number of new immigrants working in certain industries has increased. In other words, in professional, technological services, as well as industries such as finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing, sustained employment growth has been achieved throughout the epidemic.
Some reports pointed out that as concerns about high inflation and supply chain issues intensify, the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates from April next year. According to the report, according to the third quarter business outlook survey released by the Bank of Canada on Monday, nearly half of Canadian companies (45%) expect inflation to exceed 3% next year. Another 42% of companies expect an inflation rate of 2-3%, and only 10% of companies expect an inflation rate of between 1% and 2%. Since inflation expectations are the main driver of inflation, the market has noticed this and it is now expected that the Bank of Canada will be forced to raise interest rates before the second half of 2022.
After that, investors who trade crude oil pay a little attention to the US drilling platform data, which will also have some impact on the long-term trend of oil prices.
November 6th-November 7th Saturday and Sunday No significant data and events
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading
