The decline of natural rubber accelerates, how long will the weak demand last?

"The sell-off of rubber is a continuation of the recent weakness. The current rubber is in a short market, which is reflected in the decline in the market and the rebound in lightening. This is also the overall performance of the market since the first quarter of this year." Gao Ning, rubber analyst at Zhaojin Futures Say.

From the perspective of rubber fundamentals, Gao Ning told reporters that the domestic production areas will enter the cutting season next year. This year, the phenology is better, and Yunnan's output is expected to increase year-on-year; Hainan's cutting is slightly delayed, which supports domestic latex. After the Songkran Festival in Thailand, the northeastern part of Thailand has been cut one after another. On the whole, the phenology of this year is normal. It is expected that the raw materials will be released steadily in the future, and the purchase price will fall under pressure during the week. The natural rubber futures 2209 contract is in the peak production season, so there is expected supply pressure. In general, the supply of rubber will be in the peak season, and there will be no impact from production cuts for the time being.


"From the perspective of downstream demand, the current poor logistics and transportation have affected the production and operation of enterprises, the demand for raw material procurement is sluggish, and the production and sales of terminal vehicles are not good. Although the market also expects that demand will return after the epidemic, but in the epidemic prevention and control. Under pressure, from the perspective of the disk, the market obviously did not choose to trade." Gao Ning said.

Tong Changzheng, an energy and chemical analyst at Chaos Tiancheng Futures Research Institute, also said that while there is still uncertainty in the control of the epidemic, downstream tire demand will still be greatly affected, and the flow of goods in trade links is slow.

Gao Ning predicts that rubber demand will still be affected by repeated epidemics in the short term, and there will be a lot of pressure on stable economic growth during the year. Among them, there is no bright spot in the terminal automobile demand, and heavy trucks are also in a decline cycle. The high level in three years, the weak tire demand is expected to continue into the third quarter. Judging from the expectations, the market is even more looking forward to the improvement in the second half of the year, driven by post-epidemic demand recovery and macro policies.

"In general, as a commodity that is more oriented towards consumption, rubber needs to be driven more by demand when there is no shortage on the supply side." Gao Ning said that it is expected that the disk will continue to run weakly in the second quarter, but the decline will also In the compression basis, the downside space is narrowed, and the bottom line is concerned about the performance of 12,000-12,500 yuan / ton.

Shenwan Futures believes that the current rubber price is at a low level, and the external strength and internal weakness are maintained. After the epidemic is stable, it is expected that the price will gradually stabilize and rebound, but it needs to wait for the inflection point of the epidemic. Short-term Hujiao is expected to weaken under the expectation of weak demand and smooth supply of new rubber. Continued weakness.

Article source: Futures Daily