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Market News The USD/JPY Trades With a Mildly Negative Bias Around 140.00, But The Downside Appears Limited Ahead Of The Fed Meeting

The USD/JPY Trades With a Mildly Negative Bias Around 140.00, But The Downside Appears Limited Ahead Of The Fed Meeting

Wednesday's Asian session USD/JPY moves marginally lower, but lacks follow-through. A softer risk tone is viewed as operating as a headwind for the pair, as it benefits the safe-haven JPY. As the market's attention remains fixed on the crucial FOMC decision, the downside appears limited.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-06-14

7616

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During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair is anticipated to oscillate within a narrow trading range, consolidating its three-day gains. The pair is currently trading just above the psychological 140.00 level as traders appear to have moved to the periphery in anticipation of the highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to halt its year-long rate-hiking cycle when it announces its decision at 18:00 GMT later today. The latest US consumer inflation data, released on Tuesday, indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scarcely rose in May and that the annual increase was the smallest in over two years. In fact, the US Labour Department reported that the headline CPI increased by 0.1% in May, following a 0.4% increase in April, marking the eleventh consecutive month of easing price pressures.

The CPI decelerated from 4.9% in April to 4% in May, marking the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2021. However, this is still double the Fed's target of 2%, which could enable the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. In addition, the fact that markets have been pricing in a greater likelihood of another 25-basis-point rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has led to the overnight rise in US Treasury bond yields and is viewed as providing support for the US Dollar (USD). In turn, this should operate as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair and limit any significant decline.

The market's apprehension ahead of the key central bank event risk is reflected by a generally milder risk tone, which is believed to benefit the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and exert some pressure on the major. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its dovish posture in order to support the economy and ensure that recent positive trends continue should keep the JPY under control. Before placing aggressive bearish bets on the USD/JPY pair and positioning for a deeper intraday corrective decline, this in turn calls for some prudence.