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The USD/CAD Trading Range Is Limited To 40 Pips As Investors Await US/Canada Employment Data
The USD/CAD has established a narrow range ahead of the US/Canada employment report. The US labor market is loosening as companies relax their recruitment procedures. The Employment Change in Canada is anticipated to reach 12,000, and the Unemployment Rate could rise to 5.1%.
In the early Asian session, the USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors await the publication of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Loonie is anticipated to deliver a power-packed performance.
As a result of a slowdown in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened their recruitment efforts, easing the constrained US labor market. (ADP). This has prompted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates at its May meeting.
In the meantime, S&P500 futures have resumed their decline, indicating a risk-averse market sentiment.
The Employment data will have an effect on the Canadian Dollar. The consensus forecast for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is lower than the previous release of 21.8K. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.
On an hourly time frame, the USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag chart pattern. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern characterized by a prolonged consolidation followed by a collapse. Typically, the consolidation phase of a chart pattern functions as an inventory adjustment in which participants initiate short positions, which prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size.
The Canadian dollar has been unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating further weakness ahead.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is limited at 60.00 on the upside. A breach of the adverse 20.00-40.00 range will activate the downward momentum.
A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low near 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-level support at 1.3300.
In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would transfer impetus in favor of US Dollar bulls, propelling the asset toward the highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619 from March 31 and March 29 respectively.
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