The USD/CAD Mirrors Oil's Lack Of Movement Above 1.3300 As US Inflation Data Looms

The USD/CAD reflects the market's prudence as traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January on Tuesday morning. Following a two-day slump, the Loonie-U.S. dollar pair maintains a position near 1.3330.

Nonetheless, the latest decline may be a result of the US Dollar's inability to preserve its prior weekly gains amid declining US Treasury bond yields. However, the weakening price of Oil, Canada's primary export, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish statements are luring USD/CAD bulls.

WTI crude oil prices remain down at approximately $79.50 per barrel due to fears of additional releases from U.S. strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). According to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, the price of black gold disregards prior rumors predicting a supply shortage due to Russia's threat to curtail production and the expectation of increased energy demand.

According to Reuters, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the Federal Reserve will need to continue raising interest rates until they reach a level sufficient to return inflation to the target rate. Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, refuted rumors of a Fed rate drop in 2023. However, the policymaker did say, "The Fed is unlikely to reduce rates this year, but could do so in 2024 if inflation begins to decline."

Notably, the recent decline in US inflation expectations from a multi-day high appears to have weighed on US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. However, the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) decline from monthly highs to 2.31 percent and 2.44 percent, respectively.

While reflecting the sentiment, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains as Wall Street closes in the green, weighing on the US Dollar. Consequently, rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds fall by roughly two basis points to 3.69 percent at the latest.

In the near future, USD/CAD traders should keep a careful eye on the US CPI data, since recent Federal Reserve (Fed) statements implying additional rate hikes appear muted. In addition, the Fed policy pivot discussions are imminent, so any disappointing US inflation statistics will not hesitate to push the Loonie pair further south. Also essential to monitor is the price of oil.