The Swiss National Bank maintains stability as scheduled in September, reiterating that the Swiss franc is highly valued

In the European market on Thursday (September 23), the Swiss National Bank's September interest rate decision to maintain stability as expected, the demand deposit rate remained unchanged at -0.75%. The short-term reaction of the US dollar to Swiss franc was relatively flat, and the current trading is at 0.9255.


The Swiss National Bank pointed out that it maintains its expansionary monetary policy to ensure price stability and provide continuous support for the recovery of the Swiss economy from the impact of the epidemic. In doing so, it considers the overall currency situation and will continue to be active in foreign exchange when necessary. In the market, the Swiss franc’s valuation is high, and the vulnerabilities of the mortgage and real estate markets have further increased.

The central bank also pointed out that the lower GDP forecast is mainly due to the development of consumption-related industries, such as trade and hotel industry, whose performance is not as good as expected. The GDP growth rate in 2021 is expected to be around 3%. The inflation rate in 2022 is expected to be 0.7% (previously forecast 0.6%), the inflation rate in 2023 is expected to be 0.6% (previously forecast 0.6%), and the inflation rate in the second quarter of 2024 is forecast to be 0.8%.

Overall, investors continue to digest the Fed's latest interest rate statement. The Fed's September interest rate decision overnight kept the short-term key interest rate unchanged in the 0%-0.25% range, and stated that it would "slow down" asset purchases to promote further economic development. The Fed hinted that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases by $120 billion this year. In addition, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the policy of reducing quantitative easing may end as early as November or mid-2022.

In addition, as the Fed raised its interest rate outlook for 2023 and 2024 to 1% and 1.8%, respectively, the Fed’s economic forecasts portray an optimistic US economic outlook. The Federal Reserve predicts that the economy will grow by 3.8% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, compared with previous expectations of 3.3% and 2.4%.

From a technical point of view, Credit Suisse analysts believe that the US dollar against the Swiss franc quickly reversed lower after failing to break the key resistance of 0.9356/77, and may now enter a new higher range. 0.9356/77 may become a difficult obstacle. , And determine the top of the range, unless it forms a larger bottom, such as breaking through the resistance level, there is almost no meaningful resistance until the 0.9473 high.

The bank pointed out that on the downside, the initial support level was at 0.9208, and it is now expected to hold the support level in order to reverse back to a higher level and determine the bottom end of a new higher range. A break below 0.9208 will bring the market back to the previous level. Interval, the next support level is 0.9166/63.

GMT+8 15:38, USD/CHF reported 0.9248/50.