The Spot Bitcoin ETF has a 75% chance of being approved in 2023

• ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart tweeted that they are increasing their prediction of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

• The SEC was recently reprimanded for its arbitrary denial of Grayscale’s application to turn GBTC into an ETF.

• Over the next week, the SEC will be facing the deadlines of multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

For the past few weeks, the crypto industry has been focused on spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Many other corporations followed BlackRock's application, but the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) stance made the market suspicious of their acceptance. Regardless, leading ETF analysts have upped their approval odds this week.

The likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF being approved has increased

After the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, filed an application, the Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund gained the market's focus. However, the application is still subject to approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulatory agency has been very critical of the approval.

Nonetheless, top ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart updated their expectation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval on Twitter. According to their post, Grayscale's latest triumph has increased the possibilities of such an ETF being approved to 75%.

The US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled in favor of Grasycale in its action against the SEC earlier this week. The regulatory body has been sued for refusing to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF.

The SEC previously stated that such ETFs were vulnerable to price manipulation because they lacked a governing authority such to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for Futures Bitcoin ETFs. The court dismissed this as a concern, stating,

“Because the spot and futures markets for bitcoin are highly related, it stands to reason that manipulation in either market will affect the price of bitcoin futures. The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products."

The court determined that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF application must be reviewed by the SEC. This victory contributed to the rally that propelled Bitcoin past the $27,000 level on August 29. The SEC will face deadlines for a slew of new spot Bitcoin ETF applications in the coming days. The Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust is the first in line, with a September 1 deadline.

Upcoming spot Bitcoin ETF application deadline

This month, the SEC delayed its decision on ARK Invest's spot Bitcoin ETF proposal, and it may do so again with Bitwise.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's price has dropped by 2% in the last hour, putting it to $27,145. 

BTC/USD 1-day chart

Further delays in ETF clearance could jeopardize the cryptocurrency's presence at this level.

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