The Netherlands International Group: The US dollar against the Canadian dollar will continue to be below 1.25 in the fourth quarter

As the election day on September 20 approaches, ING said that the Canadian dollar exchange rate may have included a certain degree of political uncertainty. Economists believe that a viable parliamentary majority will ultimately be the key to supporting the Canadian dollar to benefit from good fundamentals.

The majority of seats available for the Canadian dollar are the most important

"For the Canadian dollar, the best scenario is undoubtedly that either party wins the majority of seats, but if the latest polls are credible, this seems to be a low probability result. The most likely scenario is that the Liberal Party or The Conservative Party won the most seats, but must rely on other parties (either depending on the circumstances, such as the recent government, or through a coalition agreement) to govern, which may ultimately have a fairly limited impact on the Canadian dollar."

"The victory of the minority party will pave the way for a potentially non-majority parliament. We should learn more on Tuesday, because post-election comments begin to outline different possible political scenarios, but from a foreign exchange perspective, we believe that any political noise The risk premium embedded in the Canadian dollar may continue to exist until a clear majority of seats become a reality."

"The latest strong labor market and inflation data almost confirms the view that the Bank of Canada will have to adopt a new round of austerity measures in October, which will make it completely withdraw from quantitative easing by the end of the year or early 2022. Good fundamentals should It will provide some continuous support for the Canadian dollar before the end of the year, and we expect that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will continue to be below 1.25 in the fourth quarter of 2021."