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Market News The AUD/JPY Ascends To a Multi-Week High Following The Australian CPI, But Remains Below 96.00

The AUD/JPY Ascends To a Multi-Week High Following The Australian CPI, But Remains Below 96.00

AUD/JPY surges to a level not seen in over three weeks on Wednesday, gaining substantial positive momentum. The AUD strengthens as the Australian CPI reduces expectations for a 25 basis point RBA rate hike in November. A positive risk sentiment undermines the JPY's status as a secure haven and contributes to its robust ascent.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-10-25

11404

Wednesday during the Asian session, the AUD/JPY cross attracts aggressive buying and surges to approximately 95.90, surpassing a three-week high, in anticipation of the release of Australian consumer inflation data.

According to data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation decelerated from 6% to 5.4% during the period of July-September, and increased by 1.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, the readings were marginally above the consensus estimates, which boosted market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on November 7. Consequently, the AUD/JPY cross and the Australian Dollar (AUD) receive a substantial boost.

In addition to this, a generally positive risk tone is observed which undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and ultimately provides the cross with an additional impetus. However, speculations that Japanese authorities will intervene in the FX market to combat a sustained depreciation in the JPY could act as a headwind for the AUD/JPY cross and discourage traders from placing aggressive bullish wagers. However, given the previously indicated fundamental environment, it appears that spot prices have the shortest distance to travel before reaching an increase.

Bullish traders are favoured, even from a technical standpoint, by an intraday move above the 95.65 supply zone. However, it remains advisable to exercise caution and await subsequent buying activity beyond the round figure of 96.00 before establishing a position for any additional upward movement. The AUD/JPY cross could subsequently further propel the trend in the direction of the September monthly swing high, which is located in the vicinity of 96.90. Presently, traders await Friday's release of the Tokyo Core CPI in an attempt to discern any significant impetus.