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Market News "Terror Data" US retail sales unexpectedly improved in August, spot gold prices fell by $5 short-term, continuing the intraday decline

"Terror Data" US retail sales unexpectedly improved in August, spot gold prices fell by $5 short-term, continuing the intraday decline

In the New York session on September 16, at 20:30 GMT+8, the United States announced the market’s attention to horror data on US retail sales in August. As a result, the data performed unexpectedly, exceeding expectations and recording a positive value. After the data was released, the spot gold price fell slightly by $5 in the short-term, continuing the intraday decline.

Eden
2021-09-16
8529

On Thursday (September 16) New York session, GMT+8 20:30, the United States announced the market’s attention to horror data on US retail sales in August. As a result, the data performed unexpectedly, exceeding expectations and recording a positive value. . After the data was released, the spot gold price fell slightly by $5 in the short-term, continuing the intraday decline.


Chart: Spot Gold Price in 5 Minutes

Specific data shows that the US retail sales monthly rate in August actually announced 0.70%, expected -0.7%, and the previous value was -1.1%; the US retail sales annual rate in August actually announced 15.10%, the previous value was 15.78%. The US August core retail sales monthly rate actually announced 1.80%, which is expected to be 0.0% and the previous value -0.4%.

Financial website Forexlive commented on the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in August and pointed out that this is an impressive report. As expected, car sales fell sharply, down 3.6%, and electronics and home appliances fell 3.1%, but this was offset by strong furniture store sales, food and beverage stores, and growth in online retailers. Retail sales were 15.1% year-on-year. This is much higher than the trend level, and what is worrying is that this means that the data will fall back.

Analysts pointed out that despite the expected growth, the retail industry still faces the problem of supply chain disruption, and many retail executives say the problem is more serious than this time last year. This makes people increasingly worried that holiday goods from overseas will be delayed, and the surge of Delta Variant Virus in parts of the United States may also change consumer behavior.

U.S. retail data has an important guiding role in determining the current state and prospects of the U.S. economy, because retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending. The data will largely affect the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy statement next week, as well as the market's view of the US dollar.

Simultaneously with the US August retail sales data, there are also data on initial unemployment claims for the week of September 11. Specific data show that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of September 11 actually announced 332 thousand, which is expected to be 323,000, and the previous value was 310,000. As of September 4, the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the United States actually announced 2.65 million, which is expected to be 2.78 million, and the previous value was 2.783 million.

Deloitte said on Tuesday that it expects US retail sales during the holiday shopping season (Thanksgiving weekend to New Year) this year to grow by 7-9%, reaching US$1.28 trillion to US$1.3 trillion, because Americans are preparing to travel and go out as restrictions on the epidemic are relaxed. Spend more on meals. Online sales will remain a bright spot, with an expected growth of 11-15%. Deloitte Vice Chairman Rod Saiders said: We believe that part of the reason for this rebound will be the recovery of the service industry.

Most recent US data has performed poorly. In August, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the non-durable goods PMI both declined, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the continued expansion of consumption. In addition, the August non-agricultural employment data released on September 3 was significantly weaker than expected, and the growth rate of the labor market slowed down; the monthly CPI rate was 0.3% after the seasonal adjustment in August, which was less than the expected 0.4%.

Jason Pride, chief investment officer of Glenmede, said that economic data is beginning to support the view that high inflation may be temporary. Pride said that it seems that the market's view is getting closer to that of the Fed, and I think this is stabilizing the interest rate range that the market is digesting. If the data is as weak as expected, the Fed will have reasons to continue to delay the Taper time, and the US dollar may suffer a further blow, which will push the price of gold and other major currencies to rise.

GMT+8 20:35, the spot gold price was reported at 1,762.52 US dollars per ounce.

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