English
Market News Summary of institutions' views on financial markets on June 7
Summary of institutions' views on financial markets on June 7
On June 7, institutions summarized their views on the stock market, commodities, foreign exchange, economic prospects and central bank policy prospects:
2022-06-07
11262
On June 7, institutions summarized their views on the stock market, commodities, foreign exchange, economic prospects and central bank policy prospects:
1. Two departments: Accelerate the promotion of independent energy storage to participate in the power market to cooperate with grid peak regulation;
The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on further promoting the participation of new energy storage in the power market and dispatching applications. Accelerate the promotion of independent energy storage to participate in the medium and long-term market and spot market. In view of the relatively small energy storage capacity at this stage, independent energy storage is encouraged to sign market contracts during peak and trough periods to play the role of shifting peaks and filling valleys and generating peak power. If an independent energy storage power station transmits power to the power grid, its corresponding charging capacity does not bear the transmission and distribution price, government funds and additional charges.
2. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for international oil prices;
Goldman Sachs said in a June 6 report that oil prices need to rise further to normalize unsustainably low levels of global oil inventories. Brent crude oil prices are expected to be $140/bbl in Q3 (previously expected to be $125/bbl), $130/bbl in Q4 (previously expected to be $125/bbl), and $130/bbl in Q1 2023 / barrel (previously expected to be $ 115 / barrel)
3. Guotai Junan: The darkest moment has passed, and the elasticity of growth liquor performance is expected to be released;
The Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that the epidemic disturbance has weakened, the economic recovery has been superimposed on the restoration of social scenes, the demand for liquor has improved overall, and the recovery of sub-high-end demand has accelerated. Benefiting from the relatively mild credit environment, high-end items such as Jiugui and Fenjiu may resume high-speed volume, and the growth rate of growth targets in the second half of 22 is expected to improve month-on-month. We expect that, thanks to the post-epidemic economic improvement, the overall demand for liquor in the second half of 2022 will increase month-on-month, and the expansion pressure of growth target markets outside the province will ease. Reversing the trend of consumption upgrading, high-end and sub-high-end still maintain the trend of expansion, the structure of growth targets continues to rise, and high performance elasticity is expected to be maintained
4. Securities Times commented: Wider credit is the "main force" to boost the valuation of growth stocks;
Looking at the current market situation now, the positive expectations of resumption of work and production and tax cuts in the United States have actually become explicit. There are various signs that the structural easing of credit may have been opened. From a policy perspective, on May 31, the Chinese government website announced the full text of the "Package of Policy Measures to Steady and Stabilize the Economy", which mainly includes 33 policies in 6 areas. These "33 Articles" are also considered by many professionals to be the specific implementation plan of the current "Credit Loan" policy. From the perspective of the inter-bank market, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) went up across the board this Monday, and the interest rates of various Shibor terms in the last 10 trading days also showed an upward trend. In addition, the national stock acceptance rate also rose sharply on Monday. In the context of the central bank not tightening the currency, the emergence of this trend often means that funds may be flowing from the banks to other places, which is the starting point of the easy credit. Judging from the past market conditions, under this background, the valuation space of growth stocks is often not subject to unfavorable factors such as the lifting of the ban on Dafei, but will increase the valuation of growth stocks due to the arrival of credit relaxation.
5. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade: The US employment data released last Friday was better than expected, but it does not mean that the Fed can raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points in future meetings. For gold traders, the focus has turned to Friday's U.S. consumer price index, which will help gauge whether inflation has peaked
6. Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA: If the data does show a slight increase in inflation, gold will weaken... Until we figure out how much the Fed will raise rates to control inflation, the market will be on the sidelines. The market generally believes that inflation is and will continue to decelerate, and the Fed policy has been priced in, which should bring some stability to gold prices
7. RBC analyst Lori Calvasina said: In 2022-2023, we will continue to suffer from slower economic growth, but the economy will not enter a recession. Currently, the Fed’s aggressive policies to curb inflation (US inflation is now more than three times its target), the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, supply chain bottlenecks, and rising US Treasury yields are weighing on global equities. More recently, several bank executives have warned that record-high inflation is leading to a drop in consumer confidence and demand. However, RBC analysts said that according to their estimates, small-cap companies have fared better and their earnings look better than others.
8. Citi: Hopes of improving the supply chain in the short term "destroyed";
Supply shortages of semiconductors, auto parts and other critical products are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, Citi warned in a new report. Citi economists said: "We found that supply chain pressures are more persistent and clearly entrenched than expected a few months ago. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to have further amplified this pressure. Given these realities, any hope of a near-term improvement in supply chain conditions has been dashed. The challenges in the coming months look just as daunting as they have been in the past two years
9. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: USD/JPY may consolidate in the next few months;
Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong said USD/JPY could consolidate in the coming months, possibly moving towards the upper end of the 126-131 range. While Japan's trade deficit could widen in the coming months and put upward pressure on USD/JPY, Japan's strong income surplus could provide some cushion. Yen to benefit from safe-haven funds as long as Japan's current account remains in surplus
10. World Bank: For every 1% increase in food prices, there will be an increase of 10 million people in extreme poverty;
The World Bank recently estimated that for every 1% rise in global food prices, nearly 10 million people will fall into "extreme poverty" living on less than $1.90 (about 12.65 yuan) a day. Kyodo News reported on June 6 that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused food prices to rise, and the World Bank sounded the alarm on the expansion of the crisis, saying that “the poorer the population, the higher the proportion of food in household consumption, will be affected by price increases. ". Economists from the World Bank pointed out in an interview with Kyodo News that "the impact will appear all over the world, and Japan (mainly low-income people) will also be hit." The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced on June 3 that the world food price index in May rose by 22.8% year-on-year.
This article is organized by
1. Two departments: Accelerate the promotion of independent energy storage to participate in the power market to cooperate with grid peak regulation;
The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on further promoting the participation of new energy storage in the power market and dispatching applications. Accelerate the promotion of independent energy storage to participate in the medium and long-term market and spot market. In view of the relatively small energy storage capacity at this stage, independent energy storage is encouraged to sign market contracts during peak and trough periods to play the role of shifting peaks and filling valleys and generating peak power. If an independent energy storage power station transmits power to the power grid, its corresponding charging capacity does not bear the transmission and distribution price, government funds and additional charges.
2. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for international oil prices;
Goldman Sachs said in a June 6 report that oil prices need to rise further to normalize unsustainably low levels of global oil inventories. Brent crude oil prices are expected to be $140/bbl in Q3 (previously expected to be $125/bbl), $130/bbl in Q4 (previously expected to be $125/bbl), and $130/bbl in Q1 2023 / barrel (previously expected to be $ 115 / barrel)
3. Guotai Junan: The darkest moment has passed, and the elasticity of growth liquor performance is expected to be released;
The Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that the epidemic disturbance has weakened, the economic recovery has been superimposed on the restoration of social scenes, the demand for liquor has improved overall, and the recovery of sub-high-end demand has accelerated. Benefiting from the relatively mild credit environment, high-end items such as Jiugui and Fenjiu may resume high-speed volume, and the growth rate of growth targets in the second half of 22 is expected to improve month-on-month. We expect that, thanks to the post-epidemic economic improvement, the overall demand for liquor in the second half of 2022 will increase month-on-month, and the expansion pressure of growth target markets outside the province will ease. Reversing the trend of consumption upgrading, high-end and sub-high-end still maintain the trend of expansion, the structure of growth targets continues to rise, and high performance elasticity is expected to be maintained
4. Securities Times commented: Wider credit is the "main force" to boost the valuation of growth stocks;
Looking at the current market situation now, the positive expectations of resumption of work and production and tax cuts in the United States have actually become explicit. There are various signs that the structural easing of credit may have been opened. From a policy perspective, on May 31, the Chinese government website announced the full text of the "Package of Policy Measures to Steady and Stabilize the Economy", which mainly includes 33 policies in 6 areas. These "33 Articles" are also considered by many professionals to be the specific implementation plan of the current "Credit Loan" policy. From the perspective of the inter-bank market, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) went up across the board this Monday, and the interest rates of various Shibor terms in the last 10 trading days also showed an upward trend. In addition, the national stock acceptance rate also rose sharply on Monday. In the context of the central bank not tightening the currency, the emergence of this trend often means that funds may be flowing from the banks to other places, which is the starting point of the easy credit. Judging from the past market conditions, under this background, the valuation space of growth stocks is often not subject to unfavorable factors such as the lifting of the ban on Dafei, but will increase the valuation of growth stocks due to the arrival of credit relaxation.
5. Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade: The US employment data released last Friday was better than expected, but it does not mean that the Fed can raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points in future meetings. For gold traders, the focus has turned to Friday's U.S. consumer price index, which will help gauge whether inflation has peaked
6. Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA: If the data does show a slight increase in inflation, gold will weaken... Until we figure out how much the Fed will raise rates to control inflation, the market will be on the sidelines. The market generally believes that inflation is and will continue to decelerate, and the Fed policy has been priced in, which should bring some stability to gold prices
7. RBC analyst Lori Calvasina said: In 2022-2023, we will continue to suffer from slower economic growth, but the economy will not enter a recession. Currently, the Fed’s aggressive policies to curb inflation (US inflation is now more than three times its target), the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, supply chain bottlenecks, and rising US Treasury yields are weighing on global equities. More recently, several bank executives have warned that record-high inflation is leading to a drop in consumer confidence and demand. However, RBC analysts said that according to their estimates, small-cap companies have fared better and their earnings look better than others.
8. Citi: Hopes of improving the supply chain in the short term "destroyed";
Supply shortages of semiconductors, auto parts and other critical products are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, Citi warned in a new report. Citi economists said: "We found that supply chain pressures are more persistent and clearly entrenched than expected a few months ago. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict appears to have further amplified this pressure. Given these realities, any hope of a near-term improvement in supply chain conditions has been dashed. The challenges in the coming months look just as daunting as they have been in the past two years
9. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: USD/JPY may consolidate in the next few months;
Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong said USD/JPY could consolidate in the coming months, possibly moving towards the upper end of the 126-131 range. While Japan's trade deficit could widen in the coming months and put upward pressure on USD/JPY, Japan's strong income surplus could provide some cushion. Yen to benefit from safe-haven funds as long as Japan's current account remains in surplus
10. World Bank: For every 1% increase in food prices, there will be an increase of 10 million people in extreme poverty;
The World Bank recently estimated that for every 1% rise in global food prices, nearly 10 million people will fall into "extreme poverty" living on less than $1.90 (about 12.65 yuan) a day. Kyodo News reported on June 6 that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused food prices to rise, and the World Bank sounded the alarm on the expansion of the crisis, saying that “the poorer the population, the higher the proportion of food in household consumption, will be affected by price increases. ". Economists from the World Bank pointed out in an interview with Kyodo News that "the impact will appear all over the world, and Japan (mainly low-income people) will also be hit." The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced on June 3 that the world food price index in May rose by 22.8% year-on-year.
This article is organized by
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading
