Summary of Institutions' Views on Financial Markets on November 17

On November 17, the organization’s views on the domestic and foreign stock markets, crude oil, foreign exchange and gold financial markets were summarized:

stock market

1. Morgan Stanley: US stocks are close to extreme overbought status;

① Morgan Stanley believes that there is a risk of asset bubbles in the U.S. stock market. Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of the bank’s wealth management department, released a report stating that the gap between the federal funds rate and CPI is a new high in nearly 60 years. Show that the market is close to extreme overbought status;
②She wrote in the report that excess liquidity and the dovish remarks of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continue to stimulate the stock market. This is a driving force for passive investment in the S&P 500 Index and its high-valued large-cap stocks, increasing asset allocation. Risk of imbalance

2. JPMorgan Chase: Technology investment will drive the stock market in 2022

① David Lebovitz, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said that stock investors looking forward to 2022 should keep in mind that technology is not only a means of growth, but also an engine for increasing the profitability of the entire market;
② It is reported that Leibovitz said in an interview that next year investors may see "investment spending will become a key driving force for economic growth." "This is largely related to technology;"
③Data shows that the Nasdaq 100 index, which covers computer, software, internet and other technology stocks, has risen by more than 26% this year, slightly higher than that of the S&P 500

3. Goldman Sachs: The S&P 500 Index is expected to rise by 9% by the end of 2022

① Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that the investment outlook for 2022 may be very different from 2021, but the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 9% to 5100 points by the end of 2022. If realized, the total return, including dividends, will reach 10%. As of Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained approximately 25% so far in 2021.
② David Kostin, chief US stock market strategist at Goldman Sachs, cited several reasons for his optimism. Costin believes that the corporate tax rate may remain unchanged next year, which is still beneficial to corporate profits. According to its model, S&P 500 earnings will increase by 8% in 2022, reaching $226 per share. Costin believes that the sales of companies in the S&P 500 index increased by 9% year-on-year. Therefore, investors will be keen to further increase the allocation of stocks.
③ Half of the US$28 trillion in cash assets in the United States are held by households, an increase of US$3 trillion from before the epidemic. We expect that over time, households will transfer part of their funds to the stock market. Although these are all factors that support the stock market, Costin warned that the return on the stock market next year may be lower than the high return in 2021.
④ Costin warned: “The slowdown in economic growth, the tightening of the Fed’s policy, and the rise in real yields all indicate that investors should expect that the rate of return next year will be slightly lower than the average.” According to Goldman Sachs data, in economic activity In a positive but slowing environment with rising interest rates, the average return of the S&P 500 in the past 12 months was 8%

4. Yangtze River Securities: A-share building materials sector has an opportunity for valuation restoration

① Changjiang Securities pointed out that although real estate data is difficult to quickly repair in the short term and the sector is still under pressure, it is considered that: 1) Commercial housing is not equal to the construction industry, and the non-housing market and renovation demand also play a strong supporting role in the construction industry demand; 2 ) The logic of moving toward concentration remains unchanged. The revenue growth of leading companies in the third quarter is a proof of the logic of moving toward concentration; 3) Some building materials companies issued announcements this week, involving repurchases, employee stock ownership and equity incentives, demonstrating their confidence in business operations. Also further boosted market sentiment;
②In the process of gradual fulfillment of the policy to maintain stability, the building materials sector has an opportunity for valuation restoration. Among them, home improvement leaders with core advantages and stronger anti-risk capabilities are more α and worthy of deployment

5. Huatai Securities: Long 2022 A shares, structural market is expected to continue

Huatai Securities 2022 Investment Summit was held in Shanghai yesterday. Zhang Jiqiang, deputy director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, head of total research, and chief of fixed income predicts that the A-share market in the second half of next year is expected to be better than the first half of the year, and the characteristics of shock and structural markets are expected to continue. Industry selection from the perspectives of continued prosperity, reversal of difficulties, supply recovery, and high odds

gold

1. Holland International: It is not ruled out that gold will fall to US$1,700 next year

① Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at Holland International, said: Inflation data boosted the price of gold;
②However, during 2022, as rising inflation may mean that the central bank accelerates the pace of monetary tightening, the price may drop to US$1,700.

oil

1. Allianz economist: disagrees with the strong bullish view of oil prices

① Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian warned people not to be too optimistic about oil prices, because the higher the oil price, the greater the pressure on oil demand;
②He pointed out that the current situation is caused by two unforeseen circumstances; on the one hand, no one expected the demand to rebound so fast and so strongly; on the other hand, no one expected the energy crisis and energy transition. challenge

Foreign exchange

1. Bank Julius Baer is short on the euro

①Analysis by Julius Baer Bank shows that the euro against the US dollar has resumed a "broad" bear market;
②Mensur Pocinci, head of technical analysis of the bank, recommends investors to short the euro, believing that it may fall further, and that 1.1030 is the next major support level

2. Morgan Stanley: New crown cases in the euro area are still increasing, bearish on the euro against the dollar

① Morgan Stanley foreign exchange strategists said that they are still maintaining a short position in the euro against the dollar, one of the reasons is the increasing number of new crown cases in the euro zone;
② Morgan Stanley's global macro strategist Matthew Hornbach pointed out that the 7-day average of the country's daily new cases has indeed dropped significantly. At the same time, there has been a very strong increase in cases in Europe in the past few weeks, reaching the level of April this year.

3. Bank of America: The Fed's fight against inflation is good for the U.S. Bank of America said that the Fed that curbs inflation may be good for the U.S. dollar. The bank's strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis wrote in a report on Tuesday that as consumer prices are at the fastest rate in 30 years The rate of increase, the Fed may need to admit that the price surge largely reflects the overheating of the economy;
②The strategist said that this change may push up major currency pairs such as the US dollar against the euro and against the yen, as high interest rates attract overseas capital inflows.