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Market News Summary of Institutions' Views on Financial Markets on November 15
Summary of Institutions' Views on Financial Markets on November 15
On November 15, many institutions gave their own forecasts on the domestic and foreign stock markets, commodities, foreign exchange and other financial markets.
2021-11-15
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On November 15, the organization’s views on domestic and foreign stock markets, commodities, foreign exchange and other financial markets were summarized:
1. CITIC Construction Investment: Beijing Stock Exchange established to catalyze the market of A-share brokerage sector
China Securities Investment said that the establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange will benefit listed securities firms with a deep layout on the New Third Board, and it is recommended that investors focus on three types of stocks. First, boutique securities firms with core competitiveness in wealth management. The continuous entry of residents’ wealth into the market is the largest increase in business faced by the securities industry this year. Such securities firms are expected to achieve differentiation through the development of fund agency, fund management, and cross-border brokerage services. The development path to achieve greater performance flexibility. The second is the top brokerage firms. Under the policy guidance of cultivating aircraft carrier-level brokerage firms, the top brokerage firms will gather market resources in business areas such as wealth management, derivatives trading, and securities lending, and will have superior long-term growth. The third is other wealth management concept stocks
2. Goldman Sachs's latest warning: U.S. stocks should be careful about the upcoming financial rise!
① Since the beginning of this year, US stocks have remained strong. Earlier, Goldman Sachs became the largest long in US stocks and raised the annual target of the S&P 500 index to 4700;
② Will the upward momentum of US stocks continue? Goldman Sachs' latest report warns: Beware of upcoming financial gains! In addition, the Fed’s latest semi-annual financial stability report also warned that risk assets may collapse;
③On Monday, Goldman Sachs trader Matt Fleury commented that traditional investment rules are being abandoned;
④Flery’s advice to investors is: Start thinking like in 1999. This is a market with no rules; for example, he said, Nvidia soared by 12% in a day, and its market value soared to $1 trillion; Tesla A surge in market value of US$350 billion in a few weeks; 3B Home Furnishing (BBBY) staged a short squeeze market soaring 65% after the market... In Fleurie’s view, when the stock market goes up, investors are essentially overbought.
3. Credit Suisse: Favors the Japanese stock market, and the "cornerstone" for its good performance is in place
① The Japanese stock market has been lagging other countries' stock markets this year, but Suresh Tantia, an economist at Credit Suisse, believes that this trend will soon be reversed;
②Tantia said in an interview that Japan is currently the bank's most favored developed market. Tantia predicts that the "cornerstone" for the good performance of the Japanese stock market is in place, and that the performance of the Japanese stock market in the next few quarters will be stronger than that of the stock markets in other parts of the world;
③It is reported that the favorable factors he gave include the market expectation that the new prime minister will launch more stimulus measures
1. Goldman Sachs: Reduced inventories may stimulate copper prices to exceed $12,000
Goldman Sachs said that copper inventories are at a "severely low" level, which may cause copper prices to soar as aluminum prices and some energy markets in recent months. Goldman Sachs Nicholas Snowdon and other reports said that next year copper prices are expected to average nearly 12,000 US dollars per ton, and may soar to higher levels during the period. If the LME copper inventory further drops by 50,000 tons, it may push the copper price to a high of US$13,000 per ton.
2. Goldman Sachs: Natural gas will continue to be in a bullish cycle
①Goldman Sachs stated that although the supply of natural gas in Russia has increased recently, there is still a gap in the supply of natural gas in Russia;
②Before the next wave of supply projects starts in 2025, the global LNG market will continue to be in a bullish cycle
1. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The undervaluation of the Australian dollar will disappear in 2022
①The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts that the Australian dollar will face pressure for the rest of 2021, but they predict that the Australian dollar will recover against the US dollar, the British pound and the Euro in 2022;
②Money market prices currently show that as the Reserve Bank of Australia joins the ranks of its global peers and responds to rising inflation levels, investors are turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates in 2022
2. Morgan Stanley: GBP currently has upside risks
① Morgan Stanley holds a neutral attitude towards the British pound against the U.S. dollar, but believes that there are currently upside risks;
②Good economic data in the UK will push up the actual yields of government bonds, which is a necessary condition to be fully bullish on the pound
3. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, the US dollar may remain high this week
① The Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that if the Fed's interest rate hike expectations continue to increase, the US dollar should remain high this week. The FOMC’s response to inflation is a bit lagging. The CPI data released last week was stronger than expected, indicating that underlying inflation is at a high level and expanding. Nevertheless, the US economic data released this week may not prove whether the policy should be tightened or not.
②In the major currency pairs, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia believes that the Australian dollar has downside risks against the US dollar; the euro may decline slightly against the US dollar. The pound against the US dollar will be driven to a certain extent by the UK employment data released on Tuesday; the New Zealand dollar may also strengthen against the US dollar, but attention should be paid to the inflation expectations survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday.
stock market
1. CITIC Construction Investment: Beijing Stock Exchange established to catalyze the market of A-share brokerage sector
China Securities Investment said that the establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange will benefit listed securities firms with a deep layout on the New Third Board, and it is recommended that investors focus on three types of stocks. First, boutique securities firms with core competitiveness in wealth management. The continuous entry of residents’ wealth into the market is the largest increase in business faced by the securities industry this year. Such securities firms are expected to achieve differentiation through the development of fund agency, fund management, and cross-border brokerage services. The development path to achieve greater performance flexibility. The second is the top brokerage firms. Under the policy guidance of cultivating aircraft carrier-level brokerage firms, the top brokerage firms will gather market resources in business areas such as wealth management, derivatives trading, and securities lending, and will have superior long-term growth. The third is other wealth management concept stocks
2. Goldman Sachs's latest warning: U.S. stocks should be careful about the upcoming financial rise!
① Since the beginning of this year, US stocks have remained strong. Earlier, Goldman Sachs became the largest long in US stocks and raised the annual target of the S&P 500 index to 4700;
② Will the upward momentum of US stocks continue? Goldman Sachs' latest report warns: Beware of upcoming financial gains! In addition, the Fed’s latest semi-annual financial stability report also warned that risk assets may collapse;
③On Monday, Goldman Sachs trader Matt Fleury commented that traditional investment rules are being abandoned;
④Flery’s advice to investors is: Start thinking like in 1999. This is a market with no rules; for example, he said, Nvidia soared by 12% in a day, and its market value soared to $1 trillion; Tesla A surge in market value of US$350 billion in a few weeks; 3B Home Furnishing (BBBY) staged a short squeeze market soaring 65% after the market... In Fleurie’s view, when the stock market goes up, investors are essentially overbought.
3. Credit Suisse: Favors the Japanese stock market, and the "cornerstone" for its good performance is in place
① The Japanese stock market has been lagging other countries' stock markets this year, but Suresh Tantia, an economist at Credit Suisse, believes that this trend will soon be reversed;
②Tantia said in an interview that Japan is currently the bank's most favored developed market. Tantia predicts that the "cornerstone" for the good performance of the Japanese stock market is in place, and that the performance of the Japanese stock market in the next few quarters will be stronger than that of the stock markets in other parts of the world;
③It is reported that the favorable factors he gave include the market expectation that the new prime minister will launch more stimulus measures
Commodity
1. Goldman Sachs: Reduced inventories may stimulate copper prices to exceed $12,000
Goldman Sachs said that copper inventories are at a "severely low" level, which may cause copper prices to soar as aluminum prices and some energy markets in recent months. Goldman Sachs Nicholas Snowdon and other reports said that next year copper prices are expected to average nearly 12,000 US dollars per ton, and may soar to higher levels during the period. If the LME copper inventory further drops by 50,000 tons, it may push the copper price to a high of US$13,000 per ton.
2. Goldman Sachs: Natural gas will continue to be in a bullish cycle
①Goldman Sachs stated that although the supply of natural gas in Russia has increased recently, there is still a gap in the supply of natural gas in Russia;
②Before the next wave of supply projects starts in 2025, the global LNG market will continue to be in a bullish cycle
Foreign exchange
1. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The undervaluation of the Australian dollar will disappear in 2022
①The Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts that the Australian dollar will face pressure for the rest of 2021, but they predict that the Australian dollar will recover against the US dollar, the British pound and the Euro in 2022;
②Money market prices currently show that as the Reserve Bank of Australia joins the ranks of its global peers and responds to rising inflation levels, investors are turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates in 2022
2. Morgan Stanley: GBP currently has upside risks
① Morgan Stanley holds a neutral attitude towards the British pound against the U.S. dollar, but believes that there are currently upside risks;
②Good economic data in the UK will push up the actual yields of government bonds, which is a necessary condition to be fully bullish on the pound
3. Commonwealth Bank of Australia: If the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, the US dollar may remain high this week
① The Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that if the Fed's interest rate hike expectations continue to increase, the US dollar should remain high this week. The FOMC’s response to inflation is a bit lagging. The CPI data released last week was stronger than expected, indicating that underlying inflation is at a high level and expanding. Nevertheless, the US economic data released this week may not prove whether the policy should be tightened or not.
②In the major currency pairs, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia believes that the Australian dollar has downside risks against the US dollar; the euro may decline slightly against the US dollar. The pound against the US dollar will be driven to a certain extent by the UK employment data released on Tuesday; the New Zealand dollar may also strengthen against the US dollar, but attention should be paid to the inflation expectations survey by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday.
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