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Market News Spot gold shorts are not afraid of price rebounds? I am afraid that there are at least two major risks to be faced squarely!
Spot gold shorts are not afraid of price rebounds? I am afraid that there are at least two major risks to be faced squarely!
On September 17, spot gold rebounded, but it was not enough to recover the decline of more than 2.2% in the previous trading day. The US dollar index was not far from the nearly three-week high recorded on the previous day. A series of strong US economic data reignited the market. The Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy more quickly. However, the American public’s support rate for President Biden has dropped to a record low during his presidency. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the federal government will exhaust existing cash and borrowing capacity provided by extraordinary debt measures in October, making it unable to pay all debts. These materials limit the decline in gold prices.
2021-09-17
9782
On Friday (September 17), spot gold rebounded, but it was not enough to recover the decline of more than 2.2% in the previous trading day. The US dollar index was not far from the nearly three-week high recorded on the previous day. A series of strong US economic data renewed It ignited market expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more quickly.
At 19:56 GMT+8, spot gold rose 0.29% to 1,758.88 US dollars per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.13% to 1758.9 US dollars per ounce; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.06% to 92.810.
US retail sales in August unexpectedly increased by 0.7% month-on-month, which was not only better than the expected decline of 0.7%, but also reversed the previous decline of 1.8%. In the face of supply chain bottlenecks, the performance of the manufacturing industry is still strong, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rebounded significantly in September.
Yujiro Goto, chief foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities, said: "Yesterday's data was overall strong. The market had been worried that the Delta mutant strain might lead to weak US consumption in August, but retail sales were unexpectedly strong."
These data help to revive the market's expectation that the Fed will withdraw from the ultra-loose monetary policy early. The employment data released earlier this month showed weak performance, and consumer inflation data has declined, which seems to confirm the Fed Chairman Powell's view that high inflation is only a temporary phenomenon, and raises doubts about the Fed's reduction of debt purchase time.
Bipan Rai, Head of North American Foreign Exchange Strategy, Capital Markets, Imperial Bank of Commercial Bank of Canada, said: "If you look at the retail sales data, even if it is revised, it is quite profitable. Therefore, we see that the U.S. dollar benefits from it.... When we look down At the Fed meeting this week, there was evidence to support the idea that the Fed would signal a reduction at the meeting."
As the economy continues to recover from the impact of the epidemic, the global foreign exchange market is struggling to cope with the contradiction between the slowdown in global economic growth and the increased willingness of central banks to withdraw monetary stimulus measures, even though central banks hope to withdraw stimulus policies at different speeds. The U.S. dollar was affected by these contradictory statements before the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting next week.
Like most countries, the U.S. economy is also facing the disruption of the global supply chain due to the epidemic, which has also pushed up inflation. As the Delta epidemic spreads, economic resistance in some areas of the United States is increasing. The American public’s support for President Biden has dropped to a record low during his presidency, and 50% disagree with Biden’s performance as president. Criticism from Americans on his response to the new crown epidemic is getting louder and louder.
Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: "People are increasingly worried that the U.S. is experiencing a growth panic. At first glance, our sharp cut in the third quarter economic growth forecast seems to support this view."
Biden's approval rating has been declining since mid-August, and it was also due to the collapse of the Afghan government supported by the United States. Biden recently put forward new requirements for vaccinations and wearing masks to slow the spread of the Delta virus epidemic, but some people believe that the White House has overreacted.
Philip Marey, senior American strategist at Rabobank, said: “The main problem is that they have reached a plateau (in terms of vaccination) and it is difficult to improve further because some people do not want to be vaccinated at all. If Delta (Variations) cause greater damage to the economy, and we may see the official announcement postpone from November to December, or even January."
According to analysts at TD Securities, given that there may be a close two-year interval between the time when the Fed begins to reduce the size of bond purchases and the first interest rate hike, the U.S. dollar may not rise above its current level before the end of 2022.
They believe that the US dollar index consolidation will continue until the end of 2022, when it will reach 89.0. The Fed does not consider the impact of the recent increase in inflation, but wrongly tends to continue to support economic growth, which will limit the upside of the dollar. TD Securities’ forecast for the US dollar index is slightly lower than the market’s average forecast of 91.80.
US President Biden said on Thursday that he believes Congress will pass the Infrastructure Investment Act and a supplementary spending bill at the same time. The White House stated that Biden subsequently had “active discussions” with House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Schumer on advancing these bills.
Congressional Democrats are drafting a $3.5 trillion spending bill to fund childcare, community colleges, and other social programs through tax increases on businesses and huge wealth. The party seeks to pass this huge plan as a complementary plan to the $1 trillion infrastructure bill that has received bipartisan support.
The White House also stated that Biden, Pelosi and Schumer also discussed plans to pass an ongoing resolution to fund government operations. The resolution must be passed before the end of September to allow the government to obtain funds to continue operations.
The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday that in the first six months since the American Rescue Plan (ARP) was signed into law, it has spent about $700 billion in the $1 trillion anti-epidemic rescue plan managed by the Treasury Department. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the federal government will exhaust existing cash and borrowing capacity provided by extraordinary debt measures in October, making it unable to pay all debts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the U.S. government should find a way to solve the debt ceiling deadline to avoid "reversely fringe policies." Washington should consider alternatives to the existing federal debt ceiling. Important.
IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice said at a regular press conference that the United States should consider alternatives such as an automatic adjustment mechanism or a clearly defined mid-term fiscal target. Now Congress needs to take legislative action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.
Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, warned that the debt ceiling drama may affect the Fed's decision, and the Fed may postpone the announcement of the reduction, because a new round of disputes about the debt ceiling issue may cause market turmoil.
Swiss Baida Wealth Management stated that although the official demand for gold has declined, in the long run, under the condition that real interest rates in the United States are likely to remain low (although it is expected to rise moderately in the next few months), gold is used as a value reserve asset. Still attractive. The bank forecasts the price of gold in the next three months at US$1,700 per ounce, the price of gold in the next six months is US$1,780 per ounce, and the price of gold in the next 12 months is US$1840 per ounce.
On the hourly chart, the price of gold started a downward c wave trend from US$1809 and fell below the 100% target of US$1757. The market outlook is expected to drop to the target of US$1737 by 138.2%. Wave c is a sub-wave of the downward (ii) wave that started at $1834. (ii) The wave is a sub-wave that started the upward ((i)) wave from $1680.
At 19:56 GMT+8, spot gold rose 0.29% to 1,758.88 US dollars per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.13% to 1758.9 US dollars per ounce; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.06% to 92.810.
U.S. economic data unexpectedly improves
US retail sales in August unexpectedly increased by 0.7% month-on-month, which was not only better than the expected decline of 0.7%, but also reversed the previous decline of 1.8%. In the face of supply chain bottlenecks, the performance of the manufacturing industry is still strong, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rebounded significantly in September.
Yujiro Goto, chief foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities, said: "Yesterday's data was overall strong. The market had been worried that the Delta mutant strain might lead to weak US consumption in August, but retail sales were unexpectedly strong."
These data help to revive the market's expectation that the Fed will withdraw from the ultra-loose monetary policy early. The employment data released earlier this month showed weak performance, and consumer inflation data has declined, which seems to confirm the Fed Chairman Powell's view that high inflation is only a temporary phenomenon, and raises doubts about the Fed's reduction of debt purchase time.
Bipan Rai, Head of North American Foreign Exchange Strategy, Capital Markets, Imperial Bank of Commercial Bank of Canada, said: "If you look at the retail sales data, even if it is revised, it is quite profitable. Therefore, we see that the U.S. dollar benefits from it.... When we look down At the Fed meeting this week, there was evidence to support the idea that the Fed would signal a reduction at the meeting."
As the economy continues to recover from the impact of the epidemic, the global foreign exchange market is struggling to cope with the contradiction between the slowdown in global economic growth and the increased willingness of central banks to withdraw monetary stimulus measures, even though central banks hope to withdraw stimulus policies at different speeds. The U.S. dollar was affected by these contradictory statements before the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting next week.
Biden's approval rating drops to a new low
Like most countries, the U.S. economy is also facing the disruption of the global supply chain due to the epidemic, which has also pushed up inflation. As the Delta epidemic spreads, economic resistance in some areas of the United States is increasing. The American public’s support for President Biden has dropped to a record low during his presidency, and 50% disagree with Biden’s performance as president. Criticism from Americans on his response to the new crown epidemic is getting louder and louder.
Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: "People are increasingly worried that the U.S. is experiencing a growth panic. At first glance, our sharp cut in the third quarter economic growth forecast seems to support this view."
Biden's approval rating has been declining since mid-August, and it was also due to the collapse of the Afghan government supported by the United States. Biden recently put forward new requirements for vaccinations and wearing masks to slow the spread of the Delta virus epidemic, but some people believe that the White House has overreacted.
Philip Marey, senior American strategist at Rabobank, said: “The main problem is that they have reached a plateau (in terms of vaccination) and it is difficult to improve further because some people do not want to be vaccinated at all. If Delta (Variations) cause greater damage to the economy, and we may see the official announcement postpone from November to December, or even January."
According to analysts at TD Securities, given that there may be a close two-year interval between the time when the Fed begins to reduce the size of bond purchases and the first interest rate hike, the U.S. dollar may not rise above its current level before the end of 2022.
They believe that the US dollar index consolidation will continue until the end of 2022, when it will reach 89.0. The Fed does not consider the impact of the recent increase in inflation, but wrongly tends to continue to support economic growth, which will limit the upside of the dollar. TD Securities’ forecast for the US dollar index is slightly lower than the market’s average forecast of 91.80.
The debt ceiling issue must be resolved as soon as possible
US President Biden said on Thursday that he believes Congress will pass the Infrastructure Investment Act and a supplementary spending bill at the same time. The White House stated that Biden subsequently had “active discussions” with House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Schumer on advancing these bills.
Congressional Democrats are drafting a $3.5 trillion spending bill to fund childcare, community colleges, and other social programs through tax increases on businesses and huge wealth. The party seeks to pass this huge plan as a complementary plan to the $1 trillion infrastructure bill that has received bipartisan support.
The White House also stated that Biden, Pelosi and Schumer also discussed plans to pass an ongoing resolution to fund government operations. The resolution must be passed before the end of September to allow the government to obtain funds to continue operations.
The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday that in the first six months since the American Rescue Plan (ARP) was signed into law, it has spent about $700 billion in the $1 trillion anti-epidemic rescue plan managed by the Treasury Department. US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the federal government will exhaust existing cash and borrowing capacity provided by extraordinary debt measures in October, making it unable to pay all debts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the U.S. government should find a way to solve the debt ceiling deadline to avoid "reversely fringe policies." Washington should consider alternatives to the existing federal debt ceiling. Important.
IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice said at a regular press conference that the United States should consider alternatives such as an automatic adjustment mechanism or a clearly defined mid-term fiscal target. Now Congress needs to take legislative action to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.
Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, warned that the debt ceiling drama may affect the Fed's decision, and the Fed may postpone the announcement of the reduction, because a new round of disputes about the debt ceiling issue may cause market turmoil.
Swiss Baida Wealth Management stated that although the official demand for gold has declined, in the long run, under the condition that real interest rates in the United States are likely to remain low (although it is expected to rise moderately in the next few months), gold is used as a value reserve asset. Still attractive. The bank forecasts the price of gold in the next three months at US$1,700 per ounce, the price of gold in the next six months is US$1,780 per ounce, and the price of gold in the next 12 months is US$1840 per ounce.
Spot gold material drops to $1,737
On the hourly chart, the price of gold started a downward c wave trend from US$1809 and fell below the 100% target of US$1757. The market outlook is expected to drop to the target of US$1737 by 138.2%. Wave c is a sub-wave of the downward (ii) wave that started at $1834. (ii) The wave is a sub-wave that started the upward ((i)) wave from $1680.
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