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Market News Russian oil suspicions superimposed on Iran's "detained ship", oil distribution rose above $120 for the first time in two and a half months!
Russian oil suspicions superimposed on Iran's "detained ship", oil distribution rose above $120 for the first time in two and a half months!
Global demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is already rising ahead of peak summer demand in the United States and Europe, and a further EU ban on Russian oil is expected to tighten the crude market.
2022-05-30
9199
International oil prices climbed to a more than two-and-a-half-month high in Asian session on Monday, as the improvement of the epidemic in Asia rekindled confidence in the recovery of demand, while the supply side faced increasing uncertainty: the European Union is working hard to formulate a Plans to try to ban crude oil imports from Russia; news that Iran seized two Greek oil tankers in the Persian Gulf waters over the weekend also raised concerns about the risk of oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to market data, Brent crude oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.51%, to trade at $120.04 a barrel on the day. This is the first time since March 9 that the price of Brent crude oil has returned above the $120 mark. U.S. WTI crude futures rose 93 cents, or 0.82%, to $116.01 a barrel, extending their strong performance since last week.
As May draws to a close, Brent is on track for its sixth straight month of gains this month, which would be the longest such streak in more than a decade.
The months-long rally in oil prices has been buoyed by the conflict in Russia and Ukraine and by rising demand as more economies recover from coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions. In the U.S., the Memorial Day holiday weekend kicked off the summer driving season, with U.S. retail gasoline prices climbing further to record levels.
"There is clearly a lot of optimism in the crude oil market today," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. He noted that the market is already tightening ahead of the peak driving season, even if new EU sanctions on Russia have yet to be finalized, which will further boost demand.
Global demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is already rising ahead of peak summer demand in the United States and Europe, and a further EU ban on Russian oil is expected to tighten the crude market.
Russian oil "doubt"
European Union member states failed to agree on a package of sanctions against Russia ahead of a leaders summit on Sunday, but talks will continue this week in an attempt to reach a deal that would ban Russian oil by sea while allowing pipelines Consistent.
Hungary remains unhappy with a compromise proposed by the European Union, according to media citing people familiar with the matter. Since Hungary relies heavily on Russian oil, it resists the embargo on Russian oil, which is also the key reason for the difficulty in producing the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia. But an EU official said a deal was still possible in the coming days.
The European Commission circulated an updated proposal to member states over the weekend to ban offshore oil imports from Russia until early next year, while delaying restrictions on imports through the giant Druzhba pipeline, which is the main importer of Hungarian crude, people familiar with the matter said. source.
The deal, if reached, would allow Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to continue receiving Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline for a period of time until those countries find alternative supplies.
"I think speculators are likely gearing up for a post-EU summit oil market rally," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Iran "detains ship"
In addition to doubts about whether the European Union can reach a ban on Russian oil, the news that Iranian forces detained two Greek oil tankers in the Persian Gulf last weekend also made the crude oil market quite sensitive during the day. There is widespread speculation in the industry that Iran's move is in retaliation for the country's oil cargo ships previously seized off the coast of Greece.
The two Greek ships were seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for "violations", according to local Iranian media, without providing further details.
Iranian authorities said on Wednesday that an oil cargo had been confiscated from the country's oil tanker off the coast of Greece with the cooperation of U.S. authorities. Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization called the move an "act of piracy" and urged the Greek government to "immediately abide by its international obligations".
Historically, the safe and free navigation of tankers in the Persian Gulf has been critical to the global oil trade.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports of crude oil and petroleum products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz reached 20.7 million barrels per day in 2018, accounting for about 21 percent of global oil consumption. The region is also critical for global LNG shipments, with more than a quarter of the world’s annual LNG supply, mostly from Qatar, passing through the region, according to EIA.
"This has raised concerns about further disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a third of the world's oil trade," analysts at ANZ said in a note.
Spot premium
Judging from the term structure of the crude oil futures market, the oil market is currently showing a large backwardation, which is a bullish pattern marked by the price of the front-month contract being higher than the forward price. The spot spread for Brent — the difference between the two most recent contracts — was $3.65 a barrel on Monday, up from $1.34 a barrel three weeks ago.
The current rally in oil prices has also been supported by a weaker dollar as investors trimmed expectations for a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve over the past week and fears of a global recession eased. For importers holding other currencies, a weaker dollar usually boosts demand.
Brent crude could top $150 a barrel if Russian oil exports contract sharply, Bank of America Global Research forecast on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that Brent crude will average around $104.48 a barrel in 2022 and $100 a barrel in 2023.
And clearly, a further surge in energy prices could push global inflation up again, which is by no means good news for major energy importers. Data to be released later this week will likely show that price growth in Europe's major economies continues to hit record highs...
Article source: Financial Associated Press
According to market data, Brent crude oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.51%, to trade at $120.04 a barrel on the day. This is the first time since March 9 that the price of Brent crude oil has returned above the $120 mark. U.S. WTI crude futures rose 93 cents, or 0.82%, to $116.01 a barrel, extending their strong performance since last week.
As May draws to a close, Brent is on track for its sixth straight month of gains this month, which would be the longest such streak in more than a decade.
The months-long rally in oil prices has been buoyed by the conflict in Russia and Ukraine and by rising demand as more economies recover from coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions. In the U.S., the Memorial Day holiday weekend kicked off the summer driving season, with U.S. retail gasoline prices climbing further to record levels.
"There is clearly a lot of optimism in the crude oil market today," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. He noted that the market is already tightening ahead of the peak driving season, even if new EU sanctions on Russia have yet to be finalized, which will further boost demand.
Global demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is already rising ahead of peak summer demand in the United States and Europe, and a further EU ban on Russian oil is expected to tighten the crude market.
Russian oil "doubt"
European Union member states failed to agree on a package of sanctions against Russia ahead of a leaders summit on Sunday, but talks will continue this week in an attempt to reach a deal that would ban Russian oil by sea while allowing pipelines Consistent.
Hungary remains unhappy with a compromise proposed by the European Union, according to media citing people familiar with the matter. Since Hungary relies heavily on Russian oil, it resists the embargo on Russian oil, which is also the key reason for the difficulty in producing the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia. But an EU official said a deal was still possible in the coming days.
The European Commission circulated an updated proposal to member states over the weekend to ban offshore oil imports from Russia until early next year, while delaying restrictions on imports through the giant Druzhba pipeline, which is the main importer of Hungarian crude, people familiar with the matter said. source.
The deal, if reached, would allow Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to continue receiving Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline for a period of time until those countries find alternative supplies.
"I think speculators are likely gearing up for a post-EU summit oil market rally," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Iran "detains ship"
In addition to doubts about whether the European Union can reach a ban on Russian oil, the news that Iranian forces detained two Greek oil tankers in the Persian Gulf last weekend also made the crude oil market quite sensitive during the day. There is widespread speculation in the industry that Iran's move is in retaliation for the country's oil cargo ships previously seized off the coast of Greece.
The two Greek ships were seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for "violations", according to local Iranian media, without providing further details.
Iranian authorities said on Wednesday that an oil cargo had been confiscated from the country's oil tanker off the coast of Greece with the cooperation of U.S. authorities. Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization called the move an "act of piracy" and urged the Greek government to "immediately abide by its international obligations".
Historically, the safe and free navigation of tankers in the Persian Gulf has been critical to the global oil trade.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), exports of crude oil and petroleum products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz reached 20.7 million barrels per day in 2018, accounting for about 21 percent of global oil consumption. The region is also critical for global LNG shipments, with more than a quarter of the world’s annual LNG supply, mostly from Qatar, passing through the region, according to EIA.
"This has raised concerns about further disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a third of the world's oil trade," analysts at ANZ said in a note.
Spot premium
Judging from the term structure of the crude oil futures market, the oil market is currently showing a large backwardation, which is a bullish pattern marked by the price of the front-month contract being higher than the forward price. The spot spread for Brent — the difference between the two most recent contracts — was $3.65 a barrel on Monday, up from $1.34 a barrel three weeks ago.
The current rally in oil prices has also been supported by a weaker dollar as investors trimmed expectations for a sharp rate hike by the Federal Reserve over the past week and fears of a global recession eased. For importers holding other currencies, a weaker dollar usually boosts demand.
Brent crude could top $150 a barrel if Russian oil exports contract sharply, Bank of America Global Research forecast on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that Brent crude will average around $104.48 a barrel in 2022 and $100 a barrel in 2023.
And clearly, a further surge in energy prices could push global inflation up again, which is by no means good news for major energy importers. Data to be released later this week will likely show that price growth in Europe's major economies continues to hit record highs...
Article source: Financial Associated Press
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