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Market News Prospects of important data and major events for the week of May 30-June 3
Prospects of important data and major events for the week of May 30-June 3
From May 30th to June 3rd, the data that investors need to pay attention to include: Eurozone May CPI, Europe and the United States May Markit manufacturing PMI final value, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes, U.S. ADP employment numbers in May and Nonfarm payrolls in May. In terms of events, we need to pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Canada, the OPEC+ meeting and the speeches of several Fed officials. In addition, with Memorial Day and the Dragon Boat Festival this week, investors need to pay attention to holiday announcements in countries such as the United States and China.
2022-05-27
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From May 30th to June 3rd, the data that investors need to pay attention to include: Eurozone May CPI, Europe and the United States May Markit manufacturing PMI final value, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes, U.S. ADP employment numbers in May and Nonfarm payrolls in May. In terms of events, we need to pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Canada, the OPEC+ meeting and the speeches of several Fed officials. In addition, with Memorial Day and the Dragon Boat Festival this week, investors need to pay attention to holiday announcements in countries such as the United States and China.
Monday (May 30) Keywords: Eurozone May Economic Sentiment Index, Memorial Day, Germany May CPI
The euro zone's economic sentiment index recorded 105 in April, the lowest level since March last year. As the epidemic continues, the May announcement announced on May 30 may still be unsatisfactory.
German inflation rose at an annual rate in April, the highest since the fall of 1981. By Germany's own standards, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.4% year-on-year in April, in line with preliminary estimates. According to the European Union's unified standards, Germany's April CPI rose 7.8% year-on-year, which was also in line with expectations. Gas and mineral oil prices have again risen significantly since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with a considerable impact on inflation, the German statistics office said. On May 30, the German CPI for May will be announced, which is expected to remain at a high level.
On May 30, the United States ushered in Memorial Day. Investors should pay attention to the announcement of the closure of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE and CME.
Tuesday (May 31) Keywords: Japan's April unemployment rate, the euro zone's May reconciled CPI annual rate - not seasonally adjusted initial value
Japan's March full unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.1 percentage point month-on-month to 2.6%, the second consecutive month of declines. The unemployment rate improved to the level in April 2020 when the emergency declaration was first issued due to the spread of the epidemic. The April unemployment rate will be announced on May 31, which is expected to remain stable or even continue to improve.
The euro zone's April CPI rose at an annual rate of 7.4%, continuing to set a historical record. This is the highest level since the data began to be counted in 1997. The growth rate is in line with the median expected value of 7.5%. It is also the sixth consecutive record. 7.4% in March.
Data for May will be released on May 31 and are expected to remain high.
Wednesday (June 1) Keywords: US and Eurozone May Markit manufacturing PMI final value, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, New York Fed President Williams
The PMIs of the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom all fell in May, and the manufacturing expansion slowed down. The U.S. manufacturing, service industry and comprehensive PMIs in May all fell short of market expectations, and fell significantly from April. Some economists said that the recent economic growth in the United States has slowed down, especially in the service industry, consumer demand significantly decreased. And for manufacturing, capacity remains constrained by supply shortages.
In May, the initial value of the euro zone composite PMI was 54.9, down from 55.8 in the previous month, and lower than the median forecast of economists in the previous market survey of 55.3. Among them, the PMI of the service industry, which has a higher proportion in the entire economy, was 56.3, ending a three-month consecutive rebound and significantly lower than the expected 57.5. The initial value of the euro zone's manufacturing PMI in May was 54.4, the lowest since November 2020. Economists said the euro zone economy remained resilient in May. However, it remains to be seen how long the rebound in services will last as the cost of living rises. And weakness in manufacturing has shown signs of spreading to parts of the services economy. Inflation pressures remain at an all-time high, which will tilt ECB policymakers toward a more hawkish policy stance. On June 1, the United States and the euro zone will release PMI data for May, which is expected to remain unsatisfactory despite the ongoing epidemic.
On June 1, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and there is a possibility of raising interest rates. On May 26, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge hinted that a rate hike was due last fall.
On May 16, New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed will quickly raise interest rates to more normal levels, and the sale of mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) may be one of the options the bank will consider next. On June 1, Williams gave an opening speech at the Symposium on Monetary Policy Implementation and Digital Innovation, which needs attention.
Thursday (June 2) Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes, U.S. ADP employment in May, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended May 28, U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate final value , the 29th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting
U.S. API crude oil inventories rose by 567,000 barrels in the week to May 20. In the week of May 20, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.019 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%, and an expected decrease of 737,000 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 3.394 million barrels. U.S. domestic crude production fell by 00,000 barrels to 11.9 million barrels per day last week. The U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories in the week to May 20 were the lowest since the week of September 4, 1987.
U.S. ADP payrolls increased by just 247,000 in April, well below the 390,000 expected by Dow Jones & Co. and below the upwardly revised increase of 479,000 in March, which is expected to remain subdued in May.
Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 210,000 in the week ended May 21 from the previous week, below the median economist forecast of 215,000. In addition, the number of continuing jobless claims rose to 1.346 million in the week ended May 14, up from 1.317 million in the previous week and 1.31 million in the median forecast of economists.
Initial jobless claims remained historically low, reflecting a strong labor market and fewer jobless claims. Still, the Fed has begun raising interest rates to curb unusually high demand in the economy, which could lead to a slowdown in hiring or layoffs later this year. The decline in initial jobless claims last week may ease concerns that labor demand has begun to cool, after a sharp increase of 21,000 to 218,000 in the week ended May 14.
U.S. factory orders for durable goods rose in April, underscoring strong and sustained demand for equipment and goods. Data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed durable goods bookings rose 0.4% in April, after a downwardly revised 0.6% gain a month earlier. On June 2, the final monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in April will be announced, and investors need to keep an eye on it.
Important events to watch on June 2 include: the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on the state of the economy, the 2022 FOMC vote committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, the 29th OPEC and non-OPEC oil production The Ministerial Conference was held.
Friday (June 3) Keywords: U.S. May non-farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted, Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Cleveland Fed President Mester
The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 428,000 after a seasonally adjusted April, the smallest increase since September 2021, but still slightly higher than expected; the unemployment rate was 3.6%, and the Labor Department said employment generally increased, mainly in leisure and hospitality, manufacturing growth in the industry, transportation and warehousing. Former Federal Reserve Governor Randy Kroszner commented on the non-farm payroll, and many people are still unsure whether to enter the labor market. That's going to continue to constrain growth because you're not going to see as much labor force participation, and that's going to continue to put pressure on wages. The non-agricultural data for May will be released on June 3, and the probability of a substantial increase is unlikely.
On June 3, China ushered in the Dragon Boat Festival. Investors also need to pay attention to the announcement of the closure of the exchanges in China and the United Kingdom on June 3.
On June 3, investors also need to pay attention to the 2022 FOMC vote committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester's speech on the U.S. economic outlook.
In addition to the above data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the situation in Ukraine this week, which may also have an impact on the financial market.
Monday (May 30) Keywords: Eurozone May Economic Sentiment Index, Memorial Day, Germany May CPI
The euro zone's economic sentiment index recorded 105 in April, the lowest level since March last year. As the epidemic continues, the May announcement announced on May 30 may still be unsatisfactory.
German inflation rose at an annual rate in April, the highest since the fall of 1981. By Germany's own standards, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.4% year-on-year in April, in line with preliminary estimates. According to the European Union's unified standards, Germany's April CPI rose 7.8% year-on-year, which was also in line with expectations. Gas and mineral oil prices have again risen significantly since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with a considerable impact on inflation, the German statistics office said. On May 30, the German CPI for May will be announced, which is expected to remain at a high level.
On May 30, the United States ushered in Memorial Day. Investors should pay attention to the announcement of the closure of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE and CME.
Tuesday (May 31) Keywords: Japan's April unemployment rate, the euro zone's May reconciled CPI annual rate - not seasonally adjusted initial value
Japan's March full unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.1 percentage point month-on-month to 2.6%, the second consecutive month of declines. The unemployment rate improved to the level in April 2020 when the emergency declaration was first issued due to the spread of the epidemic. The April unemployment rate will be announced on May 31, which is expected to remain stable or even continue to improve.
The euro zone's April CPI rose at an annual rate of 7.4%, continuing to set a historical record. This is the highest level since the data began to be counted in 1997. The growth rate is in line with the median expected value of 7.5%. It is also the sixth consecutive record. 7.4% in March.
Data for May will be released on May 31 and are expected to remain high.
Wednesday (June 1) Keywords: US and Eurozone May Markit manufacturing PMI final value, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, New York Fed President Williams
The PMIs of the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom all fell in May, and the manufacturing expansion slowed down. The U.S. manufacturing, service industry and comprehensive PMIs in May all fell short of market expectations, and fell significantly from April. Some economists said that the recent economic growth in the United States has slowed down, especially in the service industry, consumer demand significantly decreased. And for manufacturing, capacity remains constrained by supply shortages.
In May, the initial value of the euro zone composite PMI was 54.9, down from 55.8 in the previous month, and lower than the median forecast of economists in the previous market survey of 55.3. Among them, the PMI of the service industry, which has a higher proportion in the entire economy, was 56.3, ending a three-month consecutive rebound and significantly lower than the expected 57.5. The initial value of the euro zone's manufacturing PMI in May was 54.4, the lowest since November 2020. Economists said the euro zone economy remained resilient in May. However, it remains to be seen how long the rebound in services will last as the cost of living rises. And weakness in manufacturing has shown signs of spreading to parts of the services economy. Inflation pressures remain at an all-time high, which will tilt ECB policymakers toward a more hawkish policy stance. On June 1, the United States and the euro zone will release PMI data for May, which is expected to remain unsatisfactory despite the ongoing epidemic.
On June 1, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and there is a possibility of raising interest rates. On May 26, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge hinted that a rate hike was due last fall.
On May 16, New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed will quickly raise interest rates to more normal levels, and the sale of mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) may be one of the options the bank will consider next. On June 1, Williams gave an opening speech at the Symposium on Monetary Policy Implementation and Digital Innovation, which needs attention.
Thursday (June 2) Keywords: U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory changes, U.S. ADP employment in May, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended May 28, U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate final value , the 29th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting
U.S. API crude oil inventories rose by 567,000 barrels in the week to May 20. In the week of May 20, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 1.019 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%, and an expected decrease of 737,000 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 3.394 million barrels. U.S. domestic crude production fell by 00,000 barrels to 11.9 million barrels per day last week. The U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories in the week to May 20 were the lowest since the week of September 4, 1987.
U.S. ADP payrolls increased by just 247,000 in April, well below the 390,000 expected by Dow Jones & Co. and below the upwardly revised increase of 479,000 in March, which is expected to remain subdued in May.
Data from the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 210,000 in the week ended May 21 from the previous week, below the median economist forecast of 215,000. In addition, the number of continuing jobless claims rose to 1.346 million in the week ended May 14, up from 1.317 million in the previous week and 1.31 million in the median forecast of economists.
Initial jobless claims remained historically low, reflecting a strong labor market and fewer jobless claims. Still, the Fed has begun raising interest rates to curb unusually high demand in the economy, which could lead to a slowdown in hiring or layoffs later this year. The decline in initial jobless claims last week may ease concerns that labor demand has begun to cool, after a sharp increase of 21,000 to 218,000 in the week ended May 14.
U.S. factory orders for durable goods rose in April, underscoring strong and sustained demand for equipment and goods. Data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed durable goods bookings rose 0.4% in April, after a downwardly revised 0.6% gain a month earlier. On June 2, the final monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in April will be announced, and investors need to keep an eye on it.
Important events to watch on June 2 include: the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on the state of the economy, the 2022 FOMC vote committee, St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, the 29th OPEC and non-OPEC oil production The Ministerial Conference was held.
Friday (June 3) Keywords: U.S. May non-farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted, Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Cleveland Fed President Mester
The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 428,000 after a seasonally adjusted April, the smallest increase since September 2021, but still slightly higher than expected; the unemployment rate was 3.6%, and the Labor Department said employment generally increased, mainly in leisure and hospitality, manufacturing growth in the industry, transportation and warehousing. Former Federal Reserve Governor Randy Kroszner commented on the non-farm payroll, and many people are still unsure whether to enter the labor market. That's going to continue to constrain growth because you're not going to see as much labor force participation, and that's going to continue to put pressure on wages. The non-agricultural data for May will be released on June 3, and the probability of a substantial increase is unlikely.
On June 3, China ushered in the Dragon Boat Festival. Investors also need to pay attention to the announcement of the closure of the exchanges in China and the United Kingdom on June 3.
On June 3, investors also need to pay attention to the 2022 FOMC vote committee and Cleveland Fed President Mester's speech on the U.S. economic outlook.
In addition to the above data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the situation in Ukraine this week, which may also have an impact on the financial market.
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