📝 Review:The market expects that the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the May 1 meeting is as high as 95.8%, while the possibility of cutting interest rates is only 4.2%. Such expectations could have a negative impact on the U.S. dollar. Although the data shows that inflation is slowing, the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates and is waiting for more evidence to support it.

USD/JPY 151.396  Sell  Target Price  151.928

📝 Review:In early Asian trading, spot gold opened more than $10 higher, hitting a record high of $2,245.18 per ounce. The reason is that the February PCE data released last Friday (March 29) showed that the price growth in the United States was moderate and the cost of services other than housing and energy slowed significantly. This makes it still possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. The gold market was closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday and was digesting the impact of the data on Monday.

Gold 2244.77  Buy  Target Price  2250.74

📝 Review:The crude oil market will be closed on Friday (March 29) for Good Friday. Oil prices jumped more than $1 per barrel on Thursday, rising more than 6% in March and recording three consecutive positive months. Crude oil supply is tight due to the prospect of continued production cuts by OPEC+, continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and a decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs.

WTI Crude Oil 82.795  Buy  Target Price  83.459

📝 Review:After excluding the performance of the "Big Seven" from the S&P 500, the overall 23Q1-Q4 net profit growth rates of the remaining constituent stocks were -1.0%/-8.7%/-3.6%/-3.6% respectively. Although the shrinkage trend of net profit in 23H2 has slowed down compared with 23H1, there has not yet been an obvious upward trend. The overall performance of U.S. stocks after excluding the seven technology giants is still under pressure. Judging from the overall net profit performance of the "Big Seven", after AI ushered in the "singularity" moment, technology companies controlled costs and reduced fees, resulting in strong profit growth. Especially in the second half of 2023, the performance growth was impressive, which effectively drove the overall profit growth rate of the S&P 500 to turn positive in 23H2, playing a key role in the upward earnings growth of U.S. stocks.

Nasdaq 100 18401.370  Buy  Target Price  18462.880

📝 Review:Looking at the overall trend, the bears are slightly dominant in the Bitcoin market. There is no strong top parting pattern at the moment, and we will focus on whether 71888 is the daily high point in the future. The long-short game will be more intense in these two days, but one thing is certain. Once a 4h large real line appears in the later period, it will almost hint which way the market will go.

 71316.3  Buy  Target Price  73766.5