On September 20th, the financial breakfast, the four major central banks appeared in succession, and the Fed's dynamics this week attracted much attention!
This week (the week of September 20-26), the central banks of the four major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. The Fed’s resolution will announce economic expectations and the latest bitmap, which will provide important guidance for market forecasts on the direction of the Fed’s policy and the outlook for the US economy in the coming months. The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions, and it is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as the Fed.

This week (the week of September 20-26), the central banks of the four major economies, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their latest interest rate resolutions. The Fed’s resolution will announce economic expectations and the latest bitmap, which will provide important guidance for market forecasts on the direction of the Fed’s policy and the outlook for the US economy in the coming months. The Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank will also announce the latest interest rate resolutions, and it is expected that the keynotes of their resolutions will be basically the same as the Fed.
In addition to the central bank's decision, investors should also pay close attention to fundamental news and data such as the US government's debt ceiling, the US government's tax increase and economic stimulus plan.
Market hotspots this week
① On Monday, Germany’s August PPI annual rate, and the United States’ September NAHB real estate market index. Schnabel, Executive Committee Member of the European Central Bank, delivered a speech. Canada holds the 2021 federal election.
② On Tuesday, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting. US housing market data. The OECD updated its economic forecasts for major economies in its mid-term outlook report. The Vice President of the European Central Bank Jindos delivered a speech. The difference in CBI industrial orders in the UK in September.
③ On Wednesday, the US API crude oil inventory changes during the week ending September 17. China's annual loan market quoted interest rates as of Monday, September 22. Eurozone consumer confidence index in September. The annualized total number of existing home sales in the United States in August. Changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended September 17. The Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision. The Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda held a press conference.
④ On Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided on interest rates in September. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Bank of England announced interest rate resolutions and meeting minutes. The Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision. The European Central Bank publishes an economic bulletin.
⑤ On Friday, Japan’s national CPI annual rate in August. German September IFO business climate index. The annualized total number of new home sales in the United States after the August seasonal adjustment. Fed Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Clarida, and Governor Bowman delivered speeches. In 2022, the FOMC voting committee and Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman George gave a speech on the prospects of the U.S. economy.
⑥ On Saturday, the total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending September 24. FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech. FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech.
⑦ On Sunday, New Zealand began to enter summer time, and its financial market trading time and data release time were one hour earlier than winter time.
Holiday reminder this week
①On Monday, due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the China-Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China-Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Financial Exchange, and CICC are closed for one day. Trading of Southbound Southbound Stock Connect, Northbound Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect is suspended on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange of China. The Taiwan Stock Exchange of China is closed for one day. The Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan is closed for the Respect for the Aged Day. The Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea was closed for one day due to the Mid-Autumn Festival.
②Tuesday, ①Affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, China-Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China-Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange, Dalian Commercial Exchange, Shanghai Financial Exchange, and CICC are closed for one day. Trading of Southbound Southbound Stock Connect, Northbound Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect is suspended on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange of China. The Taiwan Stock Exchange of China is closed for one day. The Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea was closed for one day due to the Mid-Autumn Festival.
③On Wednesday, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange of China was closed for one day, and trading of Southbound Southbound Stock Connect, Northbound Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect was suspended. The Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea was closed for one day due to the Mid-Autumn Festival.
Market opening on Monday
Last week review
[Biden warns: If the US debt defaults, I am afraid that pension payments will be a problem] The White House issued a warning letter to state and local governments on Friday, stating that “reaching the debt ceiling may lead to economic recession. Economic growth will be unstable, and the unemployment rate is expected. Rising, the labor market may lose millions of jobs.” The risk of US debt default may trigger an economic recession and curb the issuance of federal aid. The White House urged Congress to raise or suspend the federal borrowing limit to avoid a debt crisis. Biden said in the warning letter that disaster relief funds, Medicaid, child health insurance plans, and funds for education, infrastructure and child nutrition may be interrupted.
[Shipping prices have risen and then risen, it is still difficult to predict when to cool down] At present, international shipping prices have risen to the forefront. Due to the surge in demand for commodities, the epidemic disrupted the supply chain and caused a surge in freight rates. The global shipping industry’s daily revenue hit 13 New year high. Many people in the industry said that as shipping prices continue to hit historical highs, the risks are also increasing. On the one hand, due to rising freight costs and increased procurement costs, some demand is decreasing; on the other hand, many shipping companies continue to build new ships and containers. Project, once supply and demand break, it will bring the risk of overcapacity. At present, the industry still has no definite consensus on when the freight rate can be lowered, but it is certain that the high price is increasing the risk, and relevant companies should start to think about the future. (Securities Times)
[Biden will increase pressure on Congressional Democrats to advance its spending bill] U.S. President Biden will increase pressure on Congressional Democrats on Thursday because differences within the party may threaten key parts of his economic agenda. Including lowering the price of prescription drugs, as well as some of his tax hike proposals for the wealthiest people in the United States. A White House official said that Biden’s speech at the White House on Thursday would urge Democrats to unite and focus on the difficulties faced by middle-class families. The recent repetitions on the content of the bill on Capitol Hill have shown the limitations that Biden faced in guiding the passage of the 3.5 trillion US dollar plan in Congress. Moderate Democrats are opposed to recent drug price negotiations and efforts to impose new taxes on the assets of the wealthiest groups.
[Yellen called McConnell to seek Republican support for raising the debt ceiling but was rejected] In response to the request of the US Treasury Secretary Yellen to work together to raise the federal debt ceiling, US Senate Minority Leader McConnell Be rejected. In the next few weeks, the US federal debt ceiling may be broken, while the two sides are still in a stalemate. McConnell reiterated: "Democrats must use their own power to raise the debt ceiling, and they have the tools to do so." Yelondon urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. The measures may be used up as early as October.
[IHS Markit cuts its automotive production forecasts with unprecedented strength, analysts are shocked] Due to the global chip shortage, IHS Markit has made unprecedented adjustments to its production forecasts that have been continuously lowered this year. IHS Markit lowered its production forecast for this year by 6.2%, or 5.02 million vehicles, and lowered its forecast for next year by 9.3%, or 8.45 million vehicles. This expected revision reflects the challenges faced by the automotive industry in the supply chain disaster. Analysts on Friday expressed shock at the expected revision of IHS. "The downgrade of the 2022 forecast is a big surprise," Credit Suisse's Dan Levy wrote. "As far as we know, this is the largest annual reduction in IHS's history."
[JP Morgan Chase downgrades the third quarter GDP forecast for the United States to take into account the delta and supply chain impact] JP Morgan Chase lowered the third quarter US economic growth forecast from 7% to 5%, citing the weakening of demand growth and the slower pace of inventory rebuilding slow. JP Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, wrote in a report on Wednesday that the rapid spread of the epidemic caused by the delta strain, coupled with supply chain issues, are restricting consumer spending growth-growth has slowed to around 1.9% this quarter . "Delta is curbing consumer service spending, and the scarcity of car dealers is one of the important factors hindering consumer spending," Feroli said.
[Shanghai Futures Exchange: After research and determination, starting from the trading on September 23, 2021 (that is, the evening trading on September 22), the transaction fee for intraday closing of stainless steel futures Ss2110 and Ss2111 contracts will be adjusted to 18 yuan/hand]
List of major global markets
The U.S. stock market closed sharply lower last Friday and suffered widespread sell-offs, affected by a combination of factors, including strong economic data, concerns about corporate tax increases, the delta variant virus, and the Fed's possible change in its asset purchase schedule. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down, and the Nasdaq Index was hit, as the rise in U.S. Treasury yields put pressure on leading growth stocks. Trading volume and volatility rose sharply near the close, due to the "first day of three witch gatherings" that occurs once every quarter, that is, stock options, stock index futures and stock index options contracts expire at the same time.
David Carter, chief investment officer of Lenox Wealth Advisors, said that the market is struggling to cope with the prospect of tightening fiscal policy due to tax increases and the prospect of tightening monetary policy due to the Fed's reduction in debt purchases. The stock market today is slightly weaker, partly due to poor consumer confidence data, Carter added, which raises concerns that the Delta variant may slow economic growth.
The potential increase in corporate taxes may erode profits and put pressure on the market. Democratic leaders seek to increase the maximum corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 26.5%.
Precious metals and crude oil
The price of gold remained stable last Friday, and the trend of a slight rebound in the severe selling of the previous trading day lost momentum. As the US dollar rose, investors were concerned about the Fed's reduction strategy. Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said that the market has stabilized today, but we need to see the price of gold stay above US$1,780 per ounce before we can assert that the risk of further falling to a few-month low below US$1,700 has been eliminated.
Earlier last week, data showed unexpected growth in US retail sales in August, rekindling concerns about the Fed's early reduction of asset purchase plans, boosting the U.S. dollar and causing gold prices to plummet by nearly 3% on Thursday.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that the market already believes that the Fed will slow down its bond purchases, which will drive U.S. Treasury yields higher. This is not a good sign for gold, and the price of gold is likely to fall.
The dollar hit a three-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, and the benchmark U.S. bond yields have also risen.
Now the focus of the market turns to the Fed meeting on September 21-22, and investors look forward to clues to the timing of underweight bond purchases.
Oil prices fell last Friday. U.S. crude oil fell 0.76% in late trading to US$71.82 per barrel, as energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico restarted production after the ensuing hurricane in the region stopped production.
Nishant Bhushan, an oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said that crude oil prices have reached such high levels in the past few days, apparently due to supply disruptions and reduced inventories, so now U.S. oil production is recovering and oil prices are falling as expected.
After hurricanes "Nicholas" and "Ada" reduced offshore oil production by 26 million barrels, the Gulf of Mexico began to resume crude oil exports. Foreign media reported on Thursday that about 28% of crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is still shutting down.
Foreign exchange
As the global market turned to safe-haven, US stocks and commodities fell, and the US dollar index climbed to a nearly four-week high. The foreign exchange market was generally calm last Friday. Before a series of important central bank meetings including the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, traders were reluctant to build new positions on a large scale.
The dollar index rose 0.38% to 93.22 in late trading, the highest level since August 23. The index rose 0.65% last week, the largest increase since the week ended August 20. Recent trading patterns show that the dollar’s gains usually peak around the 20th of the month. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed to 1.37%.
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose slightly to 71 in September, and the final value in August was 70.3. However, analysts said that overall, this improvement is far from the improvement in the manufacturing surveys of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. . After the University of Michigan survey was announced, the dollar held on to gains.
The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting this week. It is expected to start discussions on slowing down its monthly bond purchases, while at the same time linking any actual changes to employment growth in the United States in September and beyond.
Capital Economics market economist Jonathan Petersen wrote in his latest research report that although we doubt whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will formulate a plan to reduce asset purchases, given the constant cyclical inflationary pressures Increase, the new economic forecast may give people an understanding of its response mechanism. Our view remains that US inflation will remain high for longer than the current expectations of the FOMC and investors, thereby supporting the rise in US yields and the strengthening of the US dollar.
The euro to dollar fell 0.36% to 1.1725, closing at its lowest level since August 23. Marvin Barth, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Barclays, said that we continue to predict that the euro will perform the weakest among the G-10 currencies. It is expected that the euro will continue to fall to 1.15 next year; he believes that the German election and lack of fiscal union pose risks to the exchange rate.
The euro against the Swiss franc remains strong, and the dollar against the Swiss franc is at a 5-month high after breaking through the resistance level. The U.S. dollar rose 0.17% to 109.92 against the yen, affected by short-covering and expectations of continued overseas investment by Japanese investors.
The British pound fell 0.41% to 1.3739 against the US dollar; retail sales in the UK unexpectedly fell for the fourth consecutive month in August, the largest decline in at least 25 years; however, as investors moved forward estimates of the Bank of England’s interest rate hike to mid-2022, the British pound Still supported.
The trade-sensitive currency reversed the early gains in New York. The U.S. dollar rose 0.64% to 1.2764 against the Canadian dollar. As the last weekend before the election is approaching, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and his Conservative opponents are close to tie, and Trudeau is re-elected. Still larger. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.51% to 0.7039 against the US dollar; the Australian dollar fell 0.18% to 0.7279 against the US dollar
International Financial Information
[Bearish sentiment in the gold market rises]
The latest results of the Kitco News survey show that the rise in bond yields and the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar have exacerbated investors' indifference to the gold market and increased pessimism among Wall Street analysts and ordinary investors. This week, among the 15 Wall Street analysts interviewed, 7 expected the price of gold to fall next week, 7 expected the price of gold to remain unchanged, and 1 expected to rise. The number of ordinary investors interviewed has rebounded from the two-year low last week, but it is still below the average participation rate. Among the 757 ordinary investors interviewed, 339 were bullish, 294 were bearish, and 124 were neutral. Along with the low participation rate, the bullish sentiment of ordinary investors is at its lowest point since the beginning of this month.
[The Chief International Economics of ABN AMRO looks ahead to the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution]
James Knightley, chief international economist at ABN AMRO, expects the Fed’s new forecast to show that the economic growth rate will be slightly revised downwards, while the inflation rate will be revised upwards. Perhaps the most concerned is the dot plot of the Fed’s forecast of interest rate hikes. At present, 7 of the 18 officials use 2022 as the starting point for interest rate hikes. It is conceivable that there may be one or two officials who will advance their forecasts to 2022. Our bank currently predicts that the median value will stay in 2023, but the forces on both sides may be evenly matched.
Beijing Stock Exchange issued the "Beijing Stock Exchange Investor Suitability Management Measures (for Trial Implementation)" on September 17. Clients of brokerage firms successfully made an appointment for "account opening" that night, and the number of investors who had successfully made appointments by leading brokerage firms has passed. ten thousand. (Broker China)
[Iraqi Oil Minister Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: Oil prices are expected to remain stable above US$65/barrel]
Decreased demand for crude oil from power stations will help boost oil exports in September. It is estimated that Iraq’s total oil exports in September will reach 3.4 million barrels per day. The global economy is recovering, and oil prices are expected to stay above US$65/barrel. OPEC+ is working hard to keep oil prices at $70/barrel in the first quarter of 2022. If oil prices remain stable, OPEC+ will likely maintain the current production reduction agreement at the next meeting in October. Any possible blockade measures or a drop in oil prices in the future may affect the decision of OPEC+ at the next meeting.
Domestic financial information
[Regulatory enlargement, the new fund’s single-channel half-year net redemption exceeds 40% must be reported]
It has been learned from Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and many other places that according to the latest requirements, if the initial equity fund has a single channel net redemption of more than 40% within the first half of its establishment, it must be reported to the local securities regulatory bureau. There is speculation in the industry that this move may mean “redeeming the old and buying the new”. In the past, under the influence of the channel “redeeming the old and buying the new”, it has become normal for new funds to shrink within half a year of their establishment. The industry believes that in order to completely change the phenomenon of "redeeming the old and buying the new" in the future, the core is to change the existing assessment methods of sales channels, from assessing sales to assessing holdings. (China Fund News)
[The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the rules for the issuance and underwriting of shares on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and adjusted the highest quotation removal ratio to "not more than 3%"]
The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice on the "Implementation Measures for the Issuance and Underwriting of Shares on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (revised in 2021)". This revision mainly includes four aspects: First, the highest quotation elimination ratio is adjusted from "not less than 10%" to "not more than 3%". The second is to clarify that if the determined issuance price exceeds the average price quoted by offline investors after the initial inquiry, it is only necessary to issue a special announcement on investment risks before the subscription, and there is no need to adopt a delayed subscription arrangement. The third is to cancel the requirement that the issuer and the lead underwriter should issue an explanation if the price is not within the range of the valuation range of the investment price report. The fourth is to strengthen the supervision of quotation behavior, further clarify the requirements for offline investors to participate in new stock quotations, and incorporate possible violations into the scope of self-regulatory supervision.
[China Securities Association issued two self-discipline rules including "Regulations for the Management of Offline Investors of Initial Public Offerings under the Registration System"]
The rules stated that when a private equity fund manager is registered as an offline investor in the IPO stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, the following conditions shall be met: a certain degree of experience in securities investment. Established in accordance with the law and continued to operate for more than two years (inclusive), and engaged in securities trading for more than two years (inclusive); it has not been subject to administrative penalties, administrative supervision measures, or disciplinary sanctions by relevant self-discipline organizations in the last twelve months ; The total scale of the products managed by the private equity fund managers registered with the Securities Investment Fund Association of China in the last two quarters is more than 1 billion yuan (inclusive), and at least one of the products managed in the past three years has a duration of two years (inclusive) ) The above products; the scale of the private equity fund product applied for registration should be 60 million yuan (inclusive) or more, have been filed with the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, and entrust a third-party custodian to independently custody the fund assets. Among them, the scale of private equity fund products refers to the net asset value of fund products.
[Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Promptly promote the introduction of the "14th Five-Year" ecological environmental protection plan and special plans in various fields and its supporting plans] On September 18, the Minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu presided over an executive meeting of the Ministry, reviewed and approved in principle the "2021 Analysis Report on the Progress of Key Ecological and Environmental Work in August, and Evaluation Criteria for Effectiveness of Ecological Environmental Protection in Nature Reserves (for Trial Implementation). The meeting emphasized that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment system should strengthen the implementation of top-level design, actively promote the issuance and implementation of the "Opinions on Deepening Pollution Prevention and Control", and promptly promote the introduction of the "14th Five-Year" ecological environmental protection plan and special plans in various fields and their supporting facilities. Plan to accelerate the promotion of various central reform tasks led by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.
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