Oil rises above $60 as the drawdown in U.S. oil stocks, OPEC demand outlook (With Trading Strategy)
OPEC lifts 2021 global oil demand forecast; Chinese imports climb; Johnson & Johnson vaccine paused over rare blood clots; Europe's Covid-19 death toll surpasses one million as cases continue to rise.

Oil prices rose in early trade on Wednesday, adding to overnight gains, after industry data showed U.S. oil inventories declined more than expected and OPEC raised its outlook for oil demand.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $60.673 a barrel, rose 0.21%, Brent was down to $63.885 a barrel, rose 0.17% by 18:00(GMT+8).
Oil price gains over the past week have been underpinned by signs of a strong economic recovery in China and the United States, but have been capped by concerns over stalled vaccine rollouts worldwide and soaring COVID-19 infections in India and Brazil.
Nevertheless, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tweaked up its forecast on Tuesday for world oil demand growth this year, now expecting demand to rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, up by 70,000 bpd from its forecast last month. It is banking on the pandemic to subside and travel curbs to be eased.
"It was a welcome prognosis by the market, which had been fretting about the impact the ongoing pandemic was having on demand," ANZ Research analysts said in a note.
Further supporting the market on Wednesday, sources said data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week ended April 9, compared with estimates for a decline of about 2.9 million barrels from analysts polled by Reuters.
Traders are waiting to see if official inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday matches that view.
Market gains are being capped on concerns about increased oil production in the United States and rising supply from Iran at a time when OPEC and its allies, together called OPEC+, are set to bring on more supply from May.
"They may have to contend with rising U.S. supply," ANZ analysts said.
EIA said this week oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by 13,000 bpd in May to 7.61 million bpd.
Oil's sizzling start to the year faltered in mid-March as some regions saw a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, raising concerns about near-term fuel demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report Tuesday that rising consumption should help to trim stockpiles even as OPEC+ readies to return more barrels to the market from May.
"Oil is trying to build momentum for another test to the upside," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific. "OPEC's upward demand forecast revision is helping, though it may be slightly optimistic. China's industrial output data on Friday is going to be the next big inflection point."
The coronavirus, however, is clouding the outlook for demand with some countries renewing restrictions and lockdowns to curb its spread, highlighted by normally bustling streets in India left deserted. The pause in the rollout of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine in Europe after concerns about blood clots also marks another setback for the global inoculation drive.
The U.S., South Africa and European Union will temporarily stop the rollout of the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) Covid jab, after reports of rare blood clotting.
Six cases were detected in more than 6.8 million doses of the vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said.
Johnson & Johnson has paused its E.U. rollout, which started this week.
Europe passed the grim milestone of one million coronavirus deaths on Monday, as the World Health Organization warned that infections are rising exponentially despite widespread efforts aimed at stopping them.
The death toll across Europe's 52 countries, compiled by AFP from official sources, totalled at least 1,000,288 by 1830 (GMT+8).
Since April 2, India has reported the highest daily tallies of infections. It reported 161,736 cases on Tuesday, taking the total to 13.7 million, while deaths rose by 879 to 171,058.
On Tuesday, India's richest state Maharashtra, which accounts for about a quarter of the country's cases, said it would impose stringent restrictions from Wednesday to try to contain the spread.
India has the biggest global vaccine manufacturing capacity and had exported tens of millions of doses before its own demand skyrocketed and led to a shortage in some states.
Dozens of poor countries have relied on Indian exports to run their inoculation drives.
Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)
Pivot: 60.00
Our preference: long positions above 60.00 with targets at 60.75 & 61.25 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 60.00 look for further downside with 59.45 & 59.10 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Supports and resistances:
61.75
61.25
60.75
60.61 Last
60.00
59.45
59.10
Pivot: 63.55
Our preference: long positions above 63.55 with targets at 64.30 & 64.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 63.55 look for further downside with 63.00 & 62.70 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Supports and resistances:
65.15
64.80
64.30
64.15 Last
63.55
63.00
62.70
Guideline for Trading Central strategy
Trend chart reading guideline
1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days
2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.
3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;
4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.
How to use TC strategy?
1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell.
2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.
3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference.
4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies.
5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.
Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.
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