Oil prices rebound on fears Suez Canal blockage may last weeks (With Trading Strategy)

Oil prices bounced back on Friday from a plunge a day earlier on concerns that a large container ship that ran aground in the Suez Canal may block the vital shipping lane for weeks, squeezing supply.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.46% to $59.685 per barrel; International benchmark Brent crude rose 2.11% to $62.834 per barrel by 15:50(GMT+8) on Friday.

Prices, however, were still headed for a third consecutive weekly loss.

The trapped container ship is blocking traffic in the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest shipping channels for oil and refined fuels, grain and other trade between Asia and Europe.

Officials stopped all ships entering the canal on Thursday, and a salvage company said the vessel may take weeks to free.

“Expectations that the blockage of the Suez Canal may last for weeks raised fears of supply tightness in oil markets,” said Nissan Securities researcher Yasushi Osada.

“But lingering worries that a fresh wave of lockdowns in Europe and elsewhere may slow a recovery of global fuel demand are expected to limit price gains,” he said.

Countries in Europe are renewing restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19, which will likely reduce fuel demand from the region. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has seen its biggest increase in coronavirus cases since January.

In parts of western India, authorities ordered people indoors as new infections hit the highest level in five months.

The oil market was also under pressure as producers had difficulty selling to Asia, especially China. Asian buyers instead took cheaper oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand, industry sources said.

A stronger US Dollar and energy demand concerns surrounding a new wave of lockdowns in Europe may continue to weigh on crude prices. WTI suffered a large 6% decline last week. The OPEC meeting on 1st April may provide a clearer direction as the oil cartel sets a forward guidance for its output plan into summer.

A fuel tank at an oil facility in Saudi Arabia caught fire after being struck by a projectile, the kingdom said Friday, an attack that came on the sixth anniversary of its entry into Yemen’s yearslong civil war.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the assault at Jizan in southwest Saudi Arabia near the border with Yemen, though it came during what Saudi defense officials described as a barrage of eight bomb-carrying drones launched by the Houthi rebels.

The kingdom has faced an increasing number of such assaults and the tempo hasn’t slowed since it offered a cease-fire deal to the Houthis on Monday.

The attack in Jizan, some 600 miles southwest of Riyadh on the Red Sea, struck a distribution facility just after 9 p.m. Thursday, the Saudi Energy Ministry said in a statement carried by the state-run Saudi Press Agency.

“The attack resulted in a fire in one of the terminal’s tanks,” the statement said, without elaborating. “The attack left no casualties.”

Jizan and its new refinery long have been targeted by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in their campaign against the kingdom. However, the rebels did not immediately claim the attack.

The Saudi-led coalition entered Yemen’s war on March 25, 2015, as the Houthis threatened to take Yemen’s port city of Aden and completely overrun the country’s internationally recognized government. The Saudis promised that the offensive — the brainchild of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — would be over in short order.

Six years later, the fighting rages on, and the war has killed some 130,000 people, including over 13,000 civilians slain in targeted attacks, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Project. Tens of thousands of children have died of starvation and disease.

Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)

Pivot: 58.80

Our preference: long positions above 58.80 with targets at 60.45 & 61.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 58.80 look for further downside with 58.30 & 57.70 as targets.

Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.

Supports and resistances:

62.00

61.30

60.45

59.70 Last

58.80

58.30

57.70

Pivot: 62.20

Our preference: long positions above 62.20 with targets at 63.80 & 64.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 62.20 look for further downside with 61.60 & 61.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Supports and resistances:

65.10

64.50

63.80

62.98 Last

62.20

61.60

61.00

Guideline for Trading Central strategy 

Trend chart reading guideline

1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days

2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.

3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;

4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.

How to use TC strategy？

1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell. 

2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.

3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference. 

4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies. 

5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.

Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.