Oil price rises as Suez ship remains stuck. Today is the critical day (with trading strategy)

Before the deadline, US WTI crude oil May futures closed up 2.41 US dollars, or 4.11%, to 60.97 US dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil May futures closed up 2.62 US dollars, or 4.23%, to 64.57 US dollars per barrel.

The long-sale ship stranded and stuck in the Suez Canal is tantamount to choking the throat of global economy and trade. About 165 ships were impassable, including ships carrying crude oil. Foreign media "Lloyd's List" initially estimated that the average daily freight value of the west and east directions of the Suez Canal reached 9.6 billion U.S. dollars (approximately TWD 273.6 billion). If the long-sale vessel was trapped for two days, the global economic and trade losses would exceed 540 billion yuan. 

Today (3/29) will be the key to escape. Since today is the local high tide period after the full moon, and two other professional tugs have joined, the rescue unit hopes to be able to fight for the long-term and get out of trouble. But there is also news that a huge rock was found under the bow of the ship, which may increase the difficulty of rescue.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) analyst Vivek Dhar said, “Even if the Suez Canal is blocked and U.S. demand is picking up, it will not alleviate the problem of declining demand. In addition to Europe, the number of new crown cases in developing economies such as India and Brazil also On the rise, it is very important for developing economies to continue to increase their demand for oil."

OPEC+ will re-determine crude oil supply on April 1. The source said that it is expected to be consistent with the decision of the last meeting. OPEC+ last meeting roughly maintained production cuts, and only allowed Russia and Kazakhstan to increase production slightly by 150,000 barrels per day.

Trading strategy (Source: Trading Central)

Pivot: 59.80

Our preference: long positions above 59.80 with targets at 61.30 & 62.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 59.80 look for further downside with 59.30 & 58.95 as targets.

Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.

Supports and resistances:

62.70

62.00

61.30

60.05 Last

59.80

59.30

58.95

Guideline for Trading Central strategy

Trend chart reading guideline

1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart：

・30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday

・Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days

2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.

3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is  MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators:  Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;

4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.

How to use TC strategy？

1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell. 

2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.

3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference. 

4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies. 

5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.

Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.