油价下滑未见底 分析看空（附交易策略）

Futures in New York fell toward $47 a barrel after slumping 1.9% on Monday.Crude futures in New York earlier approached $50 a barrel, rising to a 10-month high. The early stages of the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines have stoked optimism around the trajectory for an economic rebound, and oil has emerged as a favored trade to hedge inflation.
New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the key indicator for U.S. crude, settled the first trading day of the year down 90 cents, or 1.9%, at $47.62 per barrel. Last year, WTI lost $12.54, or 21%.

London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude, finished Monday's trade at $51.09, down 71 cents, or 1.4%.

Focus on OPEC+ 's meeting onTuesday

OPEC+ will resume talks on Tuesday after reaching a deadlock over February oil output levels as Saudi Arabia argued against pumping more due to new lockdowns while Russia led calls for higher production citing recovering demand.

When the 13-member Saudi-led OPEC and its 10 allies led by Russia agreed to hike output by 500,000 barrels per day the first time in December, the market actually lauded the group’s discipline for adding less than the 1 million to 2 million bpd forecast. Crude prices actually rose after that OPEC maneuver — a feat that might not recur.

On Monday, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ should be cautious despite a generally optimistic market environment as demand remains fragile and the new variant of coronavirus is unpredictable.

"In many parts of the world, where infection rates have increased worryingly, a new wave of lockdowns and restrictions are being put in place, which will inevitably impact the rate of economic recovery in those countries," he said.

Trading Strategy (Source: Trading Central)

Pivot: 48.05

Our preference: short positions below 48.05 with targets at 47.20 & 46.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 48.05 look for further upside with 48.65 & 49.05 as targets.

Comment: as long as the resistance at 48.05 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 47.20 remains high.

Supports and resistances:

49.05

48.65

48.05

47.74 Last

47.20

46.50

46.00

Guideline for Trading Central strategy

Trend chart reading guideline

1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart：

・30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday

・Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days

2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.

3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is  MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators:  Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;

4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.

How to use TC strategy？

1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell.

2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.

3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference.

4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies.

5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.

Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.