OPEC lowered its fourth-quarter global demand forecast, and US oil once fell to around $80 in the session

On Thursday (November 11), US crude oil fell 0.16 US dollars in late trading, or 0.2%, to close at 81.18 US dollars per barrel. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its 2021 oil demand forecast due to high oil prices, and oil prices once fell to around US$80. At the same time, as inflation has reached decades of highs, US President Biden is facing increasing pressure, including those in the party, to take action to deal with rising energy prices. His options include releasing strategic oil reserves and even banning oil exports, putting pressure on oil prices.

OPEC said in a monthly report that the average crude oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 99.49 million barrels per day, which is 330,000 barrels per day lower than the previous month’s forecast. Demand growth this year is expected to be lowered by 160,000 barrels per day to 5.65 million barrels per day. The forecast for next year's supply from U.S. shale oil producers has been revised up, which may cause resistance to the organization and its allies’ efforts to balance the crude oil market. The current assumption is that the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be due to rising energy prices. Slow down. The organization also said that demand in India was slower than expected, which is also the reason for the lower forecast.

According to the latest forecast, global oil consumption is expected to exceed the 100 million barrels per day mark in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than last month's forecast. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 4.15 million barrels per day next year, maintaining last month's forecast, which will push global oil consumption to exceed the level of 2019.

But Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates LLC, said that because global oil demand exceeds new production, the factors required for the oil market to reach the top are still difficult to determine, and oil prices will reach new highs. Our current situation is that increasing demand causes prices to rise, so what we need is a longer-term supply solution. At the same time, traders quoted Wood Mackenzie's data that on November 5-9, crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery location of the US benchmark crude oil futures, fell by about 36,000 barrels.

High inflation has put pressure on the Biden administration. Biden said that reversing inflation is a top priority, especially in the energy sector. The National Economic Commission has been instructed to explore ways to reduce energy prices, and the Federal Trade Commission is required to resolve "any market manipulation or price fraud." Afterwards, the media said that 11 U.S. Democratic lawmakers, including several who are known for their concern about climate change, urged Biden to act quickly, including releasing oil from the SPR, and even adopting more aggressive measures to ban U.S. crude oil exports. The problem of rising gasoline prices.

Edward Moya, a senior analyst at OANDA, said: "Crude oil prices are trying to gain a foothold. They fell yesterday because of the soaring U.S. inflation that increased the pressure on the Biden administration to use strategic oil reserves. But energy traders know that the release of strategic oil reserves only It will bring about a very short-term price drop and will not relieve US consumers too much pressure."

(U.S. Oil Hour Chart)