November 9th foreign exchange trading reminder: the dollar fell, commodity currencies performed well
The U.S. dollar fell on November 8 and fell below the 94 mark during the session. U.S. stocks rose moderately after the passage of the U.S. Infrastructure Act. U.S. Treasury yields climbed after the announcement of the weak three-year issuance. Inflation data released mid-week. Oil-related currencies and oil prices rose together; New Zealand dollars, Norwegian kroner and Australian dollars led the rise of G-10 currencies.

On Monday (November 8), the US dollar index fell 0.26% to 94.05. It hit a 15-month high after the announcement of strong employment data in the United States last Friday. Investors digested the report, looked forward to inflation data, and followed the comments of Fed officials. Look for clues to interest rate policy. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 4.2 basis points to nearly 1.50%, after falling by 7 basis points last Friday.
Bipan Rai, head of North American foreign exchange strategy for Capital Markets, Imperial Bank of Canada, said that the market is digesting the information we received last week, including the Fed’s statement and Friday’s non-agricultural employment report, indicating that the Fed will withdraw liquidity and will raise interest rates next year. .
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of November 2, speculators reduced their net long US dollar positions for the fourth consecutive week.
ING analysts said that we suspect that if the U.S. dollar is to hit a new high this year, it may happen this month, because the seasonal trend is not good for the U.S. dollar in December. This breakthrough is still possible, because this week we will be very concerned about inflation and what actions the central bank plans to take.
Patrick Harker, chairman of the Philadelphia Fed, said he believes the Fed will not raise interest rates before the end of the cut.
The euro to US dollar rose 0.17% to 1.1587; European Central Bank chief economist Lien told a Spanish newspaper that inflation in the euro zone will ease next year and remains too weak in the medium term. This repeats the bank’s long-term message. That is, the high price increase is temporary.
The dollar fell 0.3% against the yen to 113.08 yen, driven by hedge fund flows and speculative selling below 113.20. The euro was basically flat against the yen, having dropped 0.2% to 130.90 yen during the session.
The pound to US dollar rose 0.4% that day, and recovered some of its losses after falling 0.8% last week; Lee Hardman of Mitsubishi UFJ said that the pound is “at a critical technical threshold” and that “if these key technical levels fall below, the pound may further accelerate its decline in the near future. weak".
The Australian dollar rose 0.4% against the US dollar, affected by the rise of the offshore renminbi; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.7% against the US dollar, the highest gain among G-10 currencies; New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern further relaxed the epidemic prevention restrictions in Auckland.
Preview Tuesday
time | area | index | The former value | Predictive value |
07:50 | Japan | September trade account (100 million yen) | -3724 | -3587 |
15:00 | Germany | The trade account was not adjusted seasonally in September (100 million euros) | 107 | 160 |
15:45 | France | September trade account (100 million euros) | -66.69 | -71 |
18:00 | Eurozone | November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | twenty one | |
18:00 | Germany | November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | 22.3 | 20 |
21:30 | America | October PPI annual rate (%) | 8.6 | 8.6 |
21:30 | America | October core PPI annual rate (%) | 6.8 | 6.8 |
05:30 AM | America | Changes in API crude oil inventories in the week ending November 5 (10,000 barrels) | 359.4 | |
05:30 AM | America | Changes in API gasoline inventories in the week ending November 5 (10,000 barrels) | -55.2 |
01:00 AM EIA announces monthly short-term energy outlook report 02:30 AM Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech
Summary of Institutional Views
Commerzbank: US inflation data this week may affect the dollar's trend
Commerzbank said that given the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate hike prospects, the US CPI and PPI announced later this week may have an impact on the dollar. The medium-term outlook of the US dollar depends on the Fed's "reaction mechanism" to the development of inflation. Until the Fed makes a “clear” response to inflation, the impact of inflation data on the dollar will be “normal”. In particular, a sharp drop in inflation may be detrimental to the U.S. dollar, while a significant increase in inflation may be beneficial to the U.S. dollar. PPI and CPI will be announced this Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Principal Global Investments: The Fed may raise interest rates at the end of 2022 instead of mid-2022
Information Security Global Investment expects that the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time at the end of 2022, later than the market expected in mid-2022, because the Fed hopes to see more improvements in the job market. The Fed is expected to postpone the rate hike until December 2022 based on inflationary pressures. Right after the Fed ended its reduction in debt purchases, the market now expects the Fed to raise interest rates in mid-2022. However, it must be admitted that the supply chain problem may continue into 2022, thereby increasing inflationary pressures.
Financial website Fxstreet: Buyers of the euro against the dollar may find nothing, and the exchange rate tends to be negative
Buyers of the euro against the dollar reappeared when the currency pair fell to the October 12 low, trying to regain lost ground. However, the currency pair's bearish sentiment remains strong, and this is also reflected in the falling simple moving averages (SMAs). The one-day moving average shows that the direction of the exchange rate movement in the near future is still unclear, and the upward driving force is lacking. The short-term turbulence conveys a positive momentum for possible recovery in the near term, but this momentum is still unstable. Therefore, the euro still tends to fall in the short term, but the currency pair is also working hard to regain lost ground, and it is expected that it will need to rise to a high of 1.1692 or above to increase the upward momentum.
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