NZD/USD Falls Below 0.5800 Due To Lacklustre Chinese PMI; The FOMC Decision Remains The Focal Point
The NZD/USD pair drifts lower for the second consecutive day due to a confluence of factors. A dismal employment report from New Zealand and a Caixin manufacturing PMI from China both weigh on the Kiwi. Increased US bond yields and pessimistic Fed expectations continue to support the greenback. USD supporters are currently awaiting US macroeconomic data in anticipation of the FOMC's decision.
As a result of the disappointing Chinese data, the NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and falls below 0.5800 during the Asian session, reaching a new weekly low.
According to a survey sponsored by Caixin, manufacturing sector business activity in China contracted for the first time in three months in October. The Caixin China PMI experienced a decline from 50.6 in September to 49.5 in October, which aligns with the official data unveiled on Tuesday and adds to apprehensions regarding the deteriorating state of affairs in the second-largest economy globally. This phenomenon, coupled with the already disappointing domestic employment statistics, further undermines the value of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The statistical Unexpectedly, the number of employed individuals in New Zealand declined by 0.2% in the third quarter, while the unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.9%. Subsequently, this implies that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current policy rate in November. This, coupled with a moderate strengthening of the US Dollar (USD), exerts downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. In contrast, USD bulls appear hesitant to make aggressive wagers and are now awaiting the FOMC's eagerly awaited monetary policy decision.
It is generally anticipated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will sustain the status quo for a second consecutive period. Conversely, investors appear to be certain that the US central bank will maintain the option for further interest rate increases in order to restore inflation to the targeted 2% level. The resilience of the U.S. economy should also enable the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish posture. Therefore, for hints regarding the trajectory of future rate hikes, the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the press conference following the meeting will be closely examined.
The outlook will subsequently have a significant impact on the dynamics of the USD price in the near term and aid in identifying the subsequent segment of a directional movement for the NZD/USD pair. Traders will be confronted with the release of US macro data—the ADP report on private-sector employment, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the JOLTS Job Openings data—later in the early North American session, as they approach the main event risk. Meanwhile, elevated yields on US Treasury bonds could further weaken the dollar and exert pressure on the major.
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