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Market News NZD/USD Encounters a Formidable Downward Impulse In The Wake Of Unexpectedly Robust NFP Data

NZD/USD Encounters a Formidable Downward Impulse In The Wake Of Unexpectedly Robust NFP Data

The NZD/USD displayed a significant decline, falling close to the 0.6060 level. In January, nonfarm payrolls in the United States added 353,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations. March rate cut wagers plummeted, and the markets postponed the beginning of the reduction until May.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-02-04

8961

During the trading session on Friday, the NZD/USD pair executed a significant decline, ultimately reaching a low of 0.6060. The significant decline can be attributed to an unexpectedly robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which drove the pair into bear territory as markets abandoned expectations of an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut. The pair concluded with a weekly loss of 0.40%.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Nonfarm Payrolls for January exhibited a strong performance, increasing by 353K, which is a substantial amount in comparison to both the anticipated figure of 180K and the preceding 333K. The average hourly wage increased by 0.6% in January, surpassing the expected increase of 0.3% and the previous increase of 0.4%. Furthermore, the annual wage rate surged to 4.5%, surpassing the previous increase of 4.4% and the expected increase of 4.1%. In conclusion, the January Unemployment Rate exhibited stability at 3.7%, a value consistent with its preceding reading and marginally below the projected 3.8%.

In response, US bonds increased universally as markets began to make preparations for the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to commence in May as opposed to March. At present, the 2-year yield stands at 4.37%, while the 5-year and 10-year yields are recorded at 4% and 4.05% correspondingly. In accordance with past financial patterns, an increase in yields tends to strengthen the USD's position by increasing its attractiveness to foreign investors.

Consistent with this, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a substantial decline in the probability of an interest rate reduction in March, with current estimates amounting to a mere 20%. Conversely, the odds of a cut in the subsequent meeting in May escalated to nearly 58%.