NYMEX crude oil sees $117.28 in the short-term

On Monday (June 13), international oil prices fell by more than 2 US dollars, and worries that global inflation may slow down economic output further weighed on the market. NYMEX crude oil is at $117.28 in the short-term.

GMT+8 15:52, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.74% to $118.57 a barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 1.68% to $119.96 a barrel.

U.S. consumer prices rose more-than-expected 8.6 percent in May from a year earlier, official data showed, the largest increase since December 1981, dashing hopes that inflation had peaked. Fears of further interest rate hikes weighed on global financial markets.

"Fears that slowing economic growth will dampen global consumption in the coming months dominated sentiment," Vandana Hari, founder of consultancy Vanda Insights, said in a note.

Oil producers and refiners are scrambling to meet peak summer demand, while traders are closely watching for any possible impact on oil exports and consumption from labor disputes in Libya, Norway and South Korea. To boost Western supplies, top exporter Saudi Arabia plans to shift some crude from Asia to Europe in July, traders said.

On the daily line, NYMEX crude oil may start 4 downward waves from $123.18, and the lower support looks at the 3-wave 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $117.28 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $113.63.


But strategists at BMO see crude market risks skewed to the upside in 2022 and 2023. "We continue to believe that the oil market will remain tight for the foreseeable future and, accordingly, crude prices will continue to rise. We will benchmark the NYMEX. The annual forecast for crude oil futures was raised to $105/bbl in 2022 and $95/bbl in 2023 (from $100 and $85, respectively). Nonetheless, given that the threat to global supply currently appears to be greater than demand, we see pricing risk Probably still leaning to the upside.”